TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[NorthGaWeather]

I saw this on another board, so credit goes to RaleighWx.

Here is the latest 37mhz microwave imagery taken just after 22z.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... E=al092005

Sure does look like an eye feature to me. It definitely suggests it is stronger than 50mph.[/url]

I dunno, looks like an open wave I'm sorry had to get that one in.

Anyways thanks for the link ALhurricane, your right it does look stronger.

[Ivanhater]

is anyone else having to scroll across to read replies???

[CronkPSU]

is anyone else having to scroll across to read replies???

it is due to the microwave link

[Wnghs2007]

New 00z Models are out

000
WHXX01 KWBC 120044
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM IRENE (AL092005) ON 20050812 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
050812 0000 050812 1200 050813 0000 050813 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 26.1N 64.2W 27.4N 66.3W 28.6N 67.9W 29.6N 69.4W
BAMM 26.1N 64.2W 27.2N 66.1W 28.1N 67.6W 28.9N 68.9W
A98E 26.1N 64.2W 27.3N 66.4W 28.5N 67.8W 29.7N 68.8W
LBAR 26.1N 64.2W 27.5N 66.0W 28.6N 67.5W 29.5N 68.4W
SHIP 45KTS 50KTS 56KTS 60KTS
DSHP 45KTS 50KTS 56KTS 60KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
050814 0000 050815 0000 050816 0000 050817 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 30.7N 71.0W 33.9N 72.2W 35.4N 69.3W 34.1N 67.6W
BAMM 29.6N 70.3W 31.2N 72.0W 31.6N 73.0W 31.4N 74.0W
A98E 30.5N 69.5W 31.9N 70.5W 32.3N 70.1W 33.4N 68.1W
LBAR 30.2N 69.4W 31.5N 70.9W 31.7N 72.3W 31.6N 73.9W
SHIP 63KTS 64KTS 67KTS 70KTS
DSHP 63KTS 64KTS 67KTS 70KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 26.1N LONCUR = 64.2W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 13KT
LATM12 = 24.7N LONM12 = 61.7W DIRM12 = 304DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 23.3N LONM24 = 59.3W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 45KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 50NM RD34SE = 50NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 50NM[/b]

[krisj]

skufful, I agree with you. I have noticed most NHC forcasts are a bit South of actual landful.

I think because we, and you especially, are tucked in under NC that we don't get direct hits that often.

Yes, I know Hugo and we had Charley and Gaston last year, but NC and FL have had WAY more hits than SC I think.


I am fully not expecting this to come near me.

[dwg71]

If thats the center its at 26.2N and 63.5 W

Thats .5N and .4 EAST from 5PM advisory.

[Ivanhater]

If thats the center its at 26.2N and 63.5 W

Thats .5N and .4 EAST from 5PM advisory.

so you think its moving northeast?

[skufful]

skufful, I agree with you. I have noticed most NHC forcasts are a bit South of actual landful.

I think because we, and you especially, are tucked in under NC that we don't get direct hits that often.

Yes, I know Hugo and we had Charley and Gaston last year, but NC and FL have had WAY more hits than SC I think.


I am fully not expecting this to come near me.

Yea, we were supposed to get Hugo, and it went further north as you well know.

[dwg71]

If thats the center its at 26.2N and 63.5 W

Thats .5N and .4 EAST from 5PM advisory.

so you think its moving northeast?

No just plotting points, I didnt say anything about movement.

[ROCK]

tell us why you think it will be a fish without using models?

Climo, nhc forecast...

Golter, you love to disagree don't you. In fact, I don't think I have seen you make one post that agreed with anyone regardless of issue.

Well I guess you do agree with climo and NHC. Its just too bad they are not registered users on 2K.

[CronkPSU]

If thats the center its at 26.2N and 63.5 W

Thats .5N and .4 EAST from 5PM advisory.

so you think its moving northeast?

No just plotting points, I didnt say anything about movement.

well they were still kinda guessing on the center according to the discussion, maybe now we have something we can actually track instead of the entire convection

[storms in NC]

If thats the center its at 26.2N and 63.5 W

Thats .5N and .4 EAST from 5PM advisory.

.4 east? you mean .4 west

[dwg71]

If thats the center its at 26.2N and 63.5 W

Thats .5N and .4 EAST from 5PM advisory.

.4 east? you mean .4 west

No east, if 5pm points were accurate

[Derek Ortt]

AL,

Cannot argue with that image at all. This has been organizing fairly rapidly this afternoon

[deltadog03]

lbar and bamM went WEST...bamD is still out to sea....

[shaggy]

i think its going to be interesting at 11pm tonight because IF the NHC starts to see a trend to the west in the globals they will have to shift the track west which means then they will have to put aplot on the map for a landfall.This doesn't mean i am saying thats what they will do but that its more likely to move more west than out to sea

[Hyperstorm]

Wow! I never thought this thread would reach 100+ pages...

Talking about Irene...It seems Irene is making the run tonight towards hurricane strength during the next 24 hours. Outflow is improving anticyclonically around the storm including to the south where it was inhibited during the past few days. Dry air is no longer becoming as much of a concern. As it moves WNW, it will move over increasingly warm waters, so further strengthening is likely.

The center (Yes, there is a center now...I don't know what the debate is TODAY.) is located according to satellite very near 27N 64W...Even though I must confess that it is VERY hard to pinpoint an exact center. That's why the different satellite agencies have trouble giving exact estimates. I'll be definitely waiting for recon tomorrow afternoon.


*A suggestion to the moderators*

Once Irene reaches Hurricane strength, can you make a totally new thread? I actually would suggest that we have 2 threads. One relating to TRACK and another new one relating to INTENSITY. I say this because I like discussing more about intensity and posts regarding it tend to go way down the pages, when more people discuss about track. It would be really nice and it would be a good thing to try to see how it goes. Thanks.

[cycloneye]

Just a suggestion to the moderators...Once Irene reaches Hurricane strength, can you make a totally new thread? I actually would suggest that we have 2 threads. One relating to TRACK and another new one relating to INTENSITY. I say this because I like discussing more about intensity and posts regarding it tend to go way down the pages, when more people discuss about track. It would be really nice and it would be a good thing to try to see how it goes. Thanks.

You bet this thread will be locked once Irene reaches hurricane status.

[WindRunner]

Oh, but a little old raggedy nothing deserves the attention, especially since it is about to become famous!

Just a thought, is the low over the gulf going to weaken the approaching trough, or is the trough just not strong enough in the first place?

[cycloneye]

00:00z Models.