Texas winter wx thread (2009-2010)

[cwp419]

I'm not sure why FWD has a high wind warning and a winter storm warning in NW zones. It should just be condensed into a blizzard warning, but "OMG A BLIZZARD CAN"T HAPPENE THIS FAR SOTUH!!!"

[Texas Snowman]

Latest thinking from FW NWS:

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
958 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241800-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
958 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.NOW...
A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW MOVING INTO TARRANT AND PARKER COUNTIES
WITH ALL SNOW NORTHWEST OF A CISCO TO MINERAL WELLS TO GAINESVILLE
LINE. CHANGE OVER TO ALL SNOW IS EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. SNOWFALL TOTALS NEAR 1
TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED IN THE METRO AREAS WITH TOTALS AROUND 3 TO 5
INCHES TO THE NORTH AND WEST. A LIGHT DUSTING LIKELY SOUTH TO
WACO.
WINDS WILL BE VERY STRONG AREA WIDE. A HIGH WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR
STEPHENS...YOUNG...JACK...WISE...AND MONTAGUE COUNTIES WHERE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE SUSTAINED NEAR 40 MPH AND A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OTHER COUNTIES.

[iorange55]

Patience folks. The Low is ramping up now. Looking at WV and radar imagery some good dynamics are unfolding W of the DFW area. Snow is building back into San Angelo with the slow movement of the system. I aslo noticed Shreveport just issued a Winter Weather Advisory.

I'm with you I'm actually starting to buy into this system a little more for us I think as it continues to moves more will build, and it'll all fill in before we know it. I'm feeling good about it now.

[msstateguy83]

updated snow amount from my place right at 6.50 inches of snow!

[Ntxw]

We all forget that this storm is deepening rather than losing strength as it moves along.

[Portastorm]

What are the chances of ANYTHING scrounging its way down to the Austin/San Antonio area (where I am for the Holidays)? Definitely wish the family lived up in DFW at this point!

Not sure.

And it isn't etched in stone yet that the DFW area will get anything very significant. There may be that darned dry slot to deal with. I am starting to get a little concerned about that...

Not an official forecast, but IMO, north of the Red River, almost certainly a historical Christmas Eve snow event. South of the Red River to I-20, probably a good snow event. South of I-20, keep your fingers crossed.

I'm sure ... ZIPPO! That is the chance of us seeing anything. Enjoy the wind and clouds and cool temps today because that is all we're getting.

[HockeyTx82]

What are the chances of the heavy stuff in WF swinging down towards DFW as the system moves off to the east?

[somethingfunny]

Forecast stiil on track for 3 to 5 inches of snow from Denten to the north and Parker to the west. 2 to 3 inches across DFW metro area, 1 inch to the south

Sometimes on the east side, we tend to get gipped with the forecasted amounts. I'm taking a wait-and-see approach with this due to history. In fact, I'm not expecting any snow until I see it falling.

I know what you mean, I'm worried the same thing might happen here in the Garland/Mesquite area. The great thing is that it's not too far of a drive to Sherman/Denison. Don't think I won't go on a snow chase if it comes down to it!

[serenata09]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1022 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

BASED ON REPORTS FROM OKLAHOMA MESONET ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THE POLAR LOW LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
55 TO 60 MPH. WITH RUC/NAM BOTH INDICATING H850 WINDS OF 55 TO 60
KTS AT 18Z OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FELT THAT WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WOULD LIKELY MAKE IT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
NOCONA TO DECATUR TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE SAME COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL HEADED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. AFTER 18Z MODELS DEPICT THE TROWAL REGION
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN TX PROVIDING INCREASED
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 750 TO 650 MB
LAYER.

OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL PRODUCTION AT THIS TIME
CONTINUES TO BE STABILITY ABOVE THIS LAYER OF MAXIMUM FORCING FOR
ASCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAGER LAPSE RATES IN THE
H500-H700 LAYER WITH ONLY 12-14 DEG C DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE.
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF EPV (A MEASURE OF STATIC
STABILITY) WHICH IS NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...UPRIGHT OR SLANTWISE. FEELING IS THAT ONCE REMOVED
FROM THE BEST LOW LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT HEAVIER SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
TEND TO BE LIMITED AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REGION WILL LIMIT OVERALL VERTICAL
RESPONSE. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX BROAD
AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WHERE WE HAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WE MAY NEED
TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING IF THE HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR CWA
HERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF NOTHING
ELSE...NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED STABILITY CONCERNS AS THE TROWAL
MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE
WINTER STORM WARNING INTO THE METROPLEX. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND DETERMINE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.

[Ntxw]

Lost in all of this mess is that the 12z gfs continues to show wintry weather for parts of Texas around the early to middle part of next week.

[Texas Snowman]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1022 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

.UPDATE...

...MESOSCALE UPDATE...

BASED ON REPORTS FROM OKLAHOMA MESONET ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THE POLAR LOW LEVEL JET IS CONTRIBUTING TO FREQUENT WIND GUSTS OF
55 TO 60 MPH. WITH RUC/NAM BOTH INDICATING H850 WINDS OF 55 TO 60
KTS AT 18Z OVER NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA FELT THAT WIND
GUSTS TO NEAR 60 MPH WOULD LIKELY MAKE IT ALONG AND NORTHWEST OF A
NOCONA TO DECATUR TO BRECKENRIDGE LINE. MODELS CONTINUE TO
INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL INCREASE ACROSS THESE SAME COUNTIES
DURING THE LATE MORNING HRS INCREASING COVERAGE OF SNOWFALL HEADED
INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS. AFTER 18Z MODELS DEPICT THE TROWAL REGION
OF THE UPPER LOW WILL PASS OVER NORTHERN TX PROVIDING INCREASED
FRONTOGENETIC FORCING AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 750 TO 650 MB
LAYER.

OUR MAIN CONCERN FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL PRODUCTION AT THIS TIME
CONTINUES TO BE STABILITY ABOVE THIS LAYER OF MAXIMUM FORCING FOR
ASCENT. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MEAGER LAPSE RATES IN THE
H500-H700 LAYER WITH ONLY 12-14 DEG C DECREASE IN TEMPERATURE.
VERTICAL CROSS SECTIONS THROUGH THE PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AN AREA OF EPV (A MEASURE OF STATIC
STABILITY) WHICH IS NOT INDICATIVE OF MUCH POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY...UPRIGHT OR SLANTWISE. FEELING IS THAT ONCE REMOVED
FROM THE BEST LOW LVL ISENTROPIC LIFT HEAVIER SNOW PRODUCTION WILL
TEND TO BE LIMITED AS SOMEWHAT HIGHER STATIC STABILITY ABOVE THE
MAXIMUM FRONTOGENETIC FORCING REGION WILL LIMIT OVERALL VERTICAL
RESPONSE. REGARDLESS...LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST OF THE METROPLEX BROAD
AREA OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL CREATE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOW WHERE WE HAVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT. WE MAY NEED
TO UPGRADE PORTIONS OF THE WINTER STORM WARNING TO A BLIZZARD
WARNING IF THE HEAVY TO MODERATE SNOW MOVES SOUTH INTO OUR CWA
HERE FROM NORTH CENTRAL TX WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. IF NOTHING
ELSE...NEAR BLIZZARD LIKE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR AREAS WHERE A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT. AT THIS TIME DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
ASSOCIATED WITH AFOREMENTIONED STABILITY CONCERNS AS THE TROWAL
MOVES EAST THIS AFTERNOON WE ARE NOT PLANNING ON EXTENDING THE
WINTER STORM WARNING INTO THE METROPLEX. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
EVALUATE THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND DETERMINE IF ANY
ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES ARE NEEDED AS WE
HEAD INTO THE AFTERNOON HRS.

If I'm reading that right, a loose translation might be that the Red River Valley is going to get pounded this afternoon.

And maybe the northern portions of the Metroplex too?

Thoughts?

[Ntxw]

Blizzard warnings have been extended southward to around the Abilene area.

[HockeyTx82]

Ok so that latest post from the FW NWS I got lost in the middle a little bit. Things still looking good, better or worse? Denton area?

[iorange55]

Blizzard warnings have been extended southward to around the Abilene area.

Wow really? I certainly hope we get in some of this action. If Abilene is getting pounded that hard it'd seem like as it moves east we'd be at least getting something out of it.



There is some really heavy snow showing up just south east of Abilene.

[ColdFusion]

I have a brother in Watauga/Keller area off 377. Nothing but a cold mist there as well, nothing frozen yet.
Same thing here on the NDTW.

[srainhoutx]

Blizzard warnings have been extended southward to around the Abilene area.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
1022 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

TXZ098-099-113-114-128-242100-
/O.CAN.KSJT.WS.W.0002.000000T0000Z-091224T2100Z/
/O.NEW.KSJT.BZ.W.0001.091224T1622Z-091224T2100Z/
HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-JONES-SHACKELFORD-CALLAHAN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...
STAMFORD...ANSON...HAMLIN...ALBANY...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS
1022 AM CST THU DEC 24 2009

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN ANGELO HAS ISSUED A BLIZZARD
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH WILL
RESULT IN BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW
AND VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES
ARE LIKELY.

[somethingfunny]

I have a pretty important question. I'm going to be working all day today, delivering Italian food in Mesquite. I'm concerned about the roads and the ice and the traffic, sure, but that's part of my job and I can handle it.

My question -

What the heck is the wind chill supposed to be today??????

[msstateguy83]

nws oun has updated the forecast with an additional 1-2 overnight it says
in some of the oun zone areas..

[cheezyWXguy]

Well, so far its just mist here in the plano area. I think I saw a flake or two, but i may just be hallucinating. What are the conditions around the area now? Dallas, DFW, etc.

BTW that intellicast radar is wayy better with the rain snow line than any other ive used. Whoever posted it, thank you

[AggieSpirit]

Come on snowstorm --- keep it together and bring the stuff EAST TO THE DFW AREA!.