Texas Winter 2010-2011

[downsouthman1]

Is there any chance that this storm will make some snow over us? There are more returns on the radar and sat images looks like there s some stuff blowing in. Just curious..........

It appears that way but I'm not convinced that the atmosphere can moisten up enough at low levels for anything to reach the ground, though what's happening in Hamilton County & around Lubbock is interesting. NWS is still mum.

[HockeyTx82]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
421 PM CST WED JAN 12 2011

.DISCUSSION...

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS LOW CLOUDS CONTINUING TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD
AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT RESULTING IN MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES THAN NORTH
TEXAS EXPERIENCED LAST NIGHT. AS THIS WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION LATE TONIGHT MIDLEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHT SNOW ALOFT BUT DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS IT SHOULD EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND. THIS MAY BE
PICKED UP BY RADAR BUT AGAIN THIS PRECIP SHOULD NOT BE REACHING
THE GROUND.

THE SLOW WARMING TREND LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS A
SECOND SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO DEEPEN/CLOSE OFF AS IT REACHES WEST TEXAS EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING INCREASING SURFACE SOUTHERLY FLOW...RESULTING IN
INCREASING GULF MOISTURE. LOW CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL BEGIN ACROSS
THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INCREASING TOWARD THE NORTH THROUGHOUT THE
DAY SATURDAY. A SECONDARY SHORTWAVE IN NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CLOSELY
FOLLOW THE FIRST ONE AND WILL BRING THE BEST SOURCE OF LIFT TO OUR
REGION SUNDAY. MEANWHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SUNDAY AND ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIP CHANCES TO 50 PERCENT.
LOOKING AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS...INSTABILITY LOOKS TOO MINIMAL TO
MENTION ANY CHANCE FOR THUNDER. RAIN WILL CLEAR OUT WEST TO EAST
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...WITH STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ANOTHER FRONT IS PROGGED
TO MOVE THROUGH SOMETIME MONDAY OR TUESDAY. THE UKMET IS THE
FASTEST WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT BRINGING IT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON WHILE THE GFS BRINGS THE FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
HAVE MADE A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO AND WILL BRING THE FRONT
THROUGH OVERNIGHT MONDAY. CONFIDENCE OF THIS TIMING IS LOW SO MAY
NEED TO MAKE CHANGES AS MODELS COME TO BETTER AGREEMENT.
TEMPERATURES BEHIND THIS FRONT SHOULD BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS.

[downsouthman1]

Is there any chance that this storm will make some snow over us? There are more returns on the radar and sat images looks like there s some stuff blowing in. Just curious..........

It appears that way but I'm not convinced that the atmosphere can moisten up enough at low levels for anything to reach the ground, though what's happening in Hamilton County & around Lubbock is interesting. NWS is still mum.

That's why they were mum so long; they wanted to figure out what's the nicest way to say even though it's snowing above you, you won't see it.

[iorange55]

Well 2010 was tied for the warmest year. Looks like no snow for us ever again and global cooling will never happen.


Better luck in 100 years guys.

[Metalicwx220]

quote="iorange55"]Well 2010 was tied for the warmest year. Looks like no snow for us ever again and global cooling will never happen.


Better luck in 100 years guys.[/quote]
Didn`t we just enter a 30 year global cooling phase where the winters will be more brutal?

[Ntxw]

Didn`t we just enter a 30 year global cooling phase where the winters will be more brutal?

It was sarcasm Jab at global warming.

[iorange55]

Didn`t we just enter a 30 year global cooling phase where the winters will be more brutal?

Some people say so. I was being sarcastic in my post above, though.

[Ntxw]

Some people say so. I was being sarcastic in my post above, though.

Tbh, Global warming = more snow. No global warming = more snow! Cold winters = global warming, hot summers = global warming! Win win according to them! Still no reports of snow anywhere yet...

[iorange55]

Some people say so. I was being sarcastic in my post above, though.

Tbh, Global warming = more snow. No global warming = more snow! Win win according to them! Still no reports of snow anywhere yet...

I think we'll see some flurries maybe. Beyond tonight though the models seem to be having a lot of trouble with next week.

[Metalicwx220]

Didn`t we just enter a 30 year global cooling phase where the winters will be more brutal?

Some people say so. I was being sarcastic in my post above, though.

Oh

[Ntxw]

Here's a little surprise out near Lubbock

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
549 PM CST WED JAN 12 2011

TXZ027>038-130200-
BAILEY-LAMB-HALE-FLOYD-MOTLEY-COTTLE-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LUBBOCK-
CROSBY-DICKENS-KING-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MULESHOE...LITTLEFIELD...OLTON...
PLAINVIEW...FLOYDADA...LOCKNEY...MATADOR...ROARING SPRINGS...
PADUCAH...MORTON...LEVELLAND...LUBBOCK...SLATON...WOLFFORTH...
CROSBYTON...RALLS...DICKENS...SPUR...GUTHRIE
549 PM CST WED JAN 12 2011

.NOW...
A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXTENDED FROM
CLOSE TO ABERNATHY...TO NEAR PETERSBURG...AND POSSIBLY TO AROUND
AFTON. A VERY LIGHT DUSTING MAY OCCUR...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED. OTHER VERY LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY
SPREAD INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH PLAINS FROM EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLY THIS EVENING.

[iorange55]

And when they say narrow they mean narrow. You have to be lucky to get under one of these.

[txagwxman]

Well 2010 was tied for the warmest year. Looks like no snow for us ever again and global cooling will never happen.


Better luck in 100 years guys.

Satellite data says 1998 was hotter.

[arizona_sooner]

Here's a snippet from Hawaii's most recent forecast discussion. The weather there isn't much better than Texas right now!

WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM MAUI WESTWARD...MIDDLE
AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE LOCATED ACROSS THE BIG ISLAND. THESE
CLOUDS HAVE THINNED OUT OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS...BUT WITH
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS OFF THE KONA COAST STARTING TO MOVE ASHORE.
OBSERVATIONS ATOP MAUNA KEA SHOW SATURATED CONDITIONS WITH
TEMPERATURES AROUND -3C TO -5C EVEN DURING THE AFTERNOON. WEB CAMS
SHOW CLOUDS AT SUMMIT LEVEL HAVE THINNED OUT...WITH LIMITED
PRECIPITATION AT THIS POINT. WITH HEAVIER SHOWERS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO 10 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY. COMBINED
WITH GUSTY WINDS...THIS WILL RESULT IN CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW AND NEAR WHITEOUT CONDITIONS.

[funster]

Well 2010 was tied for the warmest year. Looks like no snow for us ever again and global cooling will never happen.


Better luck in 100 years guys.

Satellite data says 1998 was hotter.

No, 2010 was tied for hottest year with 2005 according to NOAA http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... stats.html It was also the hottest year on record in Canada where they have already lost a month of winter. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE70A4US20110111 John Bennett, executive director of the Sierra Club Canada, says the climate change in Canada is becoming permanent. He says, "We're looking at a month or so less winter in the north."

[BigB0882]

How can you say you have lost a month of winter? I think I get the point but isn't it much better to say that winter temps have gone up by X amount or something like that? Winter is not typically defined by snowfall, temperatures, etc. That is just part of what comes along with winter. If that was the case then we would have years where winter lasted 4 months and it would be a very plastic term, but I have always seen winter as a very defined term not easily changed by variables.

[Ntxw]

Last year was a pretty good el nino, of course temps went up. La Nina has been strong this year so that trend won't continue. I'll bet 2011 will trend closer to normal.

[WacoWx]

Alright model readers, I havent forgotten mention of the potential arctic plunge late next week along with an outside chance of a cutoff low coming out of the SW. Any models still even putting one of these as a possibility? For the past 2 days, my local met has been mentioning said surge of cold air late next week. IMO, its a little early to bring up on the air, but i like his enthusiasm!

[srainhoutx]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to NWS products.

Interesting forecast unfolding across the Lone Star State into the weekend and next week. The weekend still looks damp as a robust short wave passes the area increasing our rain chances. Then the challenges begin. The main challenge (in the medium range) will be the Upper Low depicted to our W. Where have we seen this before (last weekend)? The trough axis could certainly be deeper into the Great Basin and across the Rockies and the amount of W Coast Ridging (+pna) will be a big key and where that ridging sets up. Our neighbors along the E Coast will also likely 'warm up' (some hints of SE Ridging) for the first time in a while. Definitely worth watching as the operation models struggle with the Pacific Pattern and how the MJO pulse affects our sensible weather. The ensembles suggest things are pushed a bit further W than the operational models now show. There may well be some wintry weather across portions of the State later next week and that will need to be monitored in the days ahead.

PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION IN SECOND
PARAGRAPH
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
746 AM EST THU JAN 13 2011

VALID 12Z MON JAN 17 2011 - 12Z THU JAN 20 2011

...HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
INTO WEDNESDAY...

A LARGE AND POWERFUL CYCLONE ENGULFING THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PACIFIC WILL LEAD TO RIDGING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AND TROUGHING MID-CONTINENT...WHICH WILL GENERALLY LINE UP UNDER
THE BASE OF A POLAR VORTEX WAXING AND WANING ACROSS NUNAVUT. THE
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THESE GENERAL IDEAS.
DETAIL-WISE...THE 00Z CANADIAN IS OUT PHASE WITH THE OTHER
DETERMINISTIC/ENSEMBLE MEAN GUIDANCE IN REGARDS TO A SYSTEM
CROSSING CANADA FROM MONDAY ONWARD...ENDING UP WITH A SLOWER
PROGRESSION...SO DID NOT USE ITS SOLUTION. THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF
WERE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT THIS MORNING...AND DID NOT STRAY TOO
FAR FROM THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEANS. USED A COMPROMISE OF
THE 06Z GFS/00Z ECMWF/00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD
TO GET MORE REALISTIC PRESSURES...THOUGH LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WERE
MOVED BACK TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF THE 00Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS WITH SURFACE LOWS WHICH SLOWED DOWN THE
LOW/FRONTAL PROGRESSION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN PLAINS
LATE IN THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN USED OVER THE GEFS
MEAN FOR PRESSURE VERIFICATION REASONS. THIS KEPT GOOD CONTINUITY
WITH OUR PREVIOUS DAY OF SOLUTIONS.

THIS SOLUTION SHOULD KEEP THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WET INTO
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THE EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE AMPLIFIES WHICH
SHOULD WEAKEN THE ONSHORE FLOW LATE NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD SLOWLY MODIFY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE STORM TRACK/UPPER
TROUGH SETS UP FARTHER WEST THAN SEEN OVER THE PAST SIX
WEEKS...WHICH COULD BE THE BEGINNING OF THE JANUARY THAW.
MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE CYCLONE
CROSSING THE MID-SOUTH AND EAST FROM MONDAY ONWARD...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR RAIN THAN SNOW WITHIN THE COASTAL PLAIN OF THE
EAST...THOUGH WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED FARTHER
WEST/INLAND ACROSS THE NORTHERN APPALACHIANS. COLDER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ROCKIES/PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN BY MID
TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

ROTH

[Portastorm]

As I noted in the Siberian Express thread this morning and just to add to the good post of srainhoutx ... HPC has noted that the models are really struggling with the large-scale features in the Pacific and, consequently, that is having significant ramifications downstream (i.e. the mainland USA).

It may be several days still before we get a good read on next week.