ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Recon data (SFMR) support 125 kts. One could argue that the pass through the NE quadrant that had the highest FL wind but only 115kt SFMR may have missed some stronger winds, but the data support 125 kts.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1444035804976742401

[aspen]

Sam could hit 45 ACE sometime tomorrow morning if it’s able to stay at 125-130 kt.

[Sciencerocks]

[Category5Kaiju]

IT'S STILL AT 150 MPH???? This is just impressive, it is almost as if Sam heard about the measly ACE complaints in the Atlantic in mid-September and decided to fix that issue once and for all

[Iceresistance]

Recon data (SFMR) support 125 kts. One could argue that the pass through the NE quadrant that had the highest FL wind but only 115kt SFMR may have missed some stronger winds, but the data support 125 kts.

I knew that there was a chance that Sam could reach 130 knots (155 mph), but 125 knots (150 mph) is a very good estimate from the NHC since SFMR conversions is different near Bermuda compared to the GoM, & I agree with you as well on the Intensity estimates . . .

[kevin]

I think Sam has a good chance of getting its first peak upgraded to 140 kt based on all the other measurements we got. IR presentation has been way worse than during its peak and still Sam stayed at 125 - 130 kt for many days. It definitely has a bigger chance for an upgrade than Ida. I would put Ida's chances at <5% and Sam's at ~40%. However, I can be a bit less conservative than the NHC as I f.e. would've also put Eta at 140 kt so I can definitely see them keeping the peak at 135kt, which is also an understandable decision. Whatever happens in post, Sam has been one of the most enjoyable and impressive storms to track. Probably the most impressive long MDR tracker (low latitude so not counting Dorian) since the 2017 season.

[storminabox]

I think Sam has a good chance of getting its first peak upgraded to 140 kt based on all the other measurements we got. IR presentation has been way worse than during its peak and still Sam stayed at 125 - 130 kt for many days. It definitely has a bigger chance for an upgrade than Ida. I would put Ida's chances at <5% and Sam's at ~40%. However, I can be a bit less conservative than the NHC as I f.e. would've also put Eta at 140 kt so I can definitely see them keeping the peak at 135kt, which is also an understandable decision. Whatever happens in post, Sam has been one of the most enjoyable and impressive storms to track. Probably the most impressive long MDR tracker (low latitude so not counting Dorian) since the 2017 season.

Oh 100%. Immensely enjoyable storm to track! First peak it could’ve been a 5, but no matter what they do, it has been a great storm! My favorite of the 2021 season for sure.

[aspen]

Sam’s IR structure is starting to degrade. At least he held on to 130 kt for longer than anyone expected.

[kronotsky]

Recon data (SFMR) support 125 kts. One could argue that the pass through the NE quadrant that had the highest FL wind but only 115kt SFMR may have missed some stronger winds, but the data support 125 kts.

I think for one to settle on 125 knots rather than 130, rather more emphasis would need to be put on SFMR than the NHC has done for recent strong storms, no?

[aspen]

Down to 125kt in the 00z best track. Sam’s final weakening phase has begun.

[storminabox]

Down to 125kt in the 00z best track. Sam’s final weakening phase has begun.

Knew it was bound to happen eventually! Still sad. Cheers Sam!

[CrazyC83]

I've been so busy this week...but this has been something to behold. Likely to go over 50 ACE and not hit land.

[Hammy]

Down to 125kt in the 00z best track. Sam’s final weakening phase has begun.

Crazy it held this intensity this far north.

[beoumont]

Sam:



Gabrielle, 1989, 145 mph, 935 mb:



Gabrielle, one day earlier; one of the largest hurricanes I can remember:



Next in 1989 came Hugo.

[DioBrando]

Sam:

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/3xZ94wsr/enT88dy.jpg [/url]

Gabrielle, 1989, 145 mph:

[url]https://i.postimg.cc/Hn5VJVP6/Gabrielle-1989-09-06-2000-Z.png [/url]

No wonder models were showing Sam to be an analog of Gabrielle.

[WiscoWx02]

43.0 units of ACE and still climbing. Fun fact, Sam has accounted for just over a third of this years ACE at this point, not factoring in the ACE it will generate over the weekend, which could be in the 3-5 units range potentially.

[CrazyC83]

Recon supports about 110 kt right now, although it has only covered a small part of the storm.

[Sciencerocks]

[sikkar]

Pressure holding up nicely @ 945. Indeed looks can be deceiving without the luxury of recon.