Texas Winter 2025-2026

[orangeblood]

My concern is it looks good, but then you play on and the cold just doesn't go south. Just another false positive looking trend. It basically shunts east and is quickly replaced by heat.

Yeah the great summer 2026…I mean winter…heat ridge is ever omnipresent. How much of an influence it will have during the upcoming colder shift is a question. It will be back to start to Feb.

I will say, never seen a winter ridge like this before. Warm winters is usually mild Pacific maritime air, not heat induced ridge to this degree.

Concur, never seen anything like this in winter. If this continues, the western US drought impacts are going to be catastrophic

[Wthrfan]

My concern is it looks good, but then you play on and the cold just doesn't go south. Just another false positive looking trend. It basically shunts east and is quickly replaced by heat.

Yeah the great summer 2026…I mean winter…heat ridge is ever omnipresent. How much of an influence it will have during the upcoming colder shift is a question. It will be back to start to Feb.

I will say, never seen a winter ridge like this before. Warm winters is usually mild Pacific maritime air, not heat induced ridge to this degree.

This really is unprecedented it seems. Is this mainly because of La Niña or something else? I’m hoping this winter isn’t a prelude to a horrific summer like 2012. It’s been so dry too.

[cstrunk]

GFS has been much more aggressive with precip than the Euro over the last couple of days (mostly eastern TX). Hope the GFS is right in that regard.

[Lagreeneyes03]

My concern is it looks good, but then you play on and the cold just doesn't go south. Just another false positive looking trend. It basically shunts east and is quickly replaced by heat.

Yeah the great summer 2026…I mean winter…heat ridge is ever omnipresent. How much of an influence it will have during the upcoming colder shift is a question. It will be back to start to Feb.

I will say, never seen a winter ridge like this before. Warm winters is usually mild Pacific maritime air, not heat induced ridge to this degree.

Concur, never seen anything like this in winter. If this continues, the western US drought impacts are going to be catastrophic

The saving grace will be El Nino in spring/summer. Not sure how strong of a Nino it needs to be to really make dent in it though.

[Ntxw]

My concern is it looks good, but then you play on and the cold just doesn't go south. Just another false positive looking trend. It basically shunts east and is quickly replaced by heat.

Yeah the great summer 2026…I mean winter…heat ridge is ever omnipresent. How much of an influence it will have during the upcoming colder shift is a question. It will be back to start to Feb.

I will say, never seen a winter ridge like this before. Warm winters is usually mild Pacific maritime air, not heat induced ridge to this degree.

This really is unprecedented it seems. Is this mainly because of La Niña or something else? I’m hoping this winter isn’t a prelude to a horrific summer like 2012. It’s been so dry too.

Likely a manifestation of the severe -PDO since 2020.

[txtwister78]

It's been so warm this winter San Antonio is expecting our FIRST freeze Sunday morning. The Hill Country has experienced a freeze however still rare territory for a freeze down into the metro this late into winter.

Still feel Jan 23rd-27th timeframe is our best window of opportunity for some real cold and perhaps some winter weather precip into Texas if it’s going to occur.

Yes, warmer temps/pacific air will return as we move into February as has been the pattern throughout this winter but I do feel if we're going to see some direct cold instead of getting clipped in previous outbreaks this is our window.

[Stratton23]

New Euro weeklies/ GEFS extended reload the pattern a couple of days before valentines in february, we will see

[orangeblood]

Yeah the great summer 2026…I mean winter…heat ridge is ever omnipresent. How much of an influence it will have during the upcoming colder shift is a question. It will be back to start to Feb.

I will say, never seen a winter ridge like this before. Warm winters is usually mild Pacific maritime air, not heat induced ridge to this degree.

This really is unprecedented it seems. Is this mainly because of La Niña or something else? I’m hoping this winter isn’t a prelude to a horrific summer like 2012. It’s been so dry too.

Likely a manifestation of the severe -PDO since 2020.

Also a weak/fading La Niña combined with an easterly QBO. Those analogs tend to favor relentless high-pressure ridges in the Western U.S. and troughs in the East

[Stratton23]

Good improvements on the 18z GFS, more penetration of the cold air into texas and not just getting shoved to our east, still a long ways to go, but definitely some good changes on this GFS run

[txtwister78]

GFS (one run of course) is what you want to see if you're rooting on a trend for cold next weekend. Lots of arctic air building and pushing south in the midwest and as long as that direct path south continues we should see a gradual trend colder with time into Texas.

Ensembles should really start to show this I think over the next few days and that will increase confidence.

[Stratton23]

txtwister78 not just a better run for cold, but a really active STJ providing multiple chances for rain which we need badly, but also some gulf lows developing om the run, would definitely be the setup if you want something fun to happen given how much cold air is available, hope we trend in the right direction over the next couple of days

[Cpv17]

How does the 18z GEFS look?

[Stratton23]

Cpv17 colder than the 12z Run, and a better signal for an active stj across the state