ATL: Tropical Depression Dolly

[Stratosphere747]

I'm an AccuWx PPV subscriber, but I think they're high, basically, in forecasting a 'Hurricane Cristobal' in 3 days form the mess that is 94L. With all due respect, of course.

I'll second that.

[wxman57]

I can't believe recon will fly into this mess today. I can't see any evidence of any LLC. It's just a tropical wave, weaker than 95L to its west. The system with the best chance of developing isn't even an invest (SE U.S. coast).

[njweather]

Well, in fairness to AccuW., what would prevent the system from strengthening once it moves away from the coast of SA?

Is shear supposed to kill it off? Are the waters not favorable for development?

[artist]

I can't believe recon will fly into this mess today. I can't see any evidence of any LLC. It's just a tropical wave, weaker than 95L to its west. The system with the best chance of developing isn't even an invest (SE U.S. coast).

sometimes I think it is a matter of they are there and even if they don't find anything then it is good exercise.

[fci]

Well, I am glad that this, as most recently predicted; did not turn out to be the menace it was thought to become as of a few days ago.
A Cane in the NE Carib and then on to a possible visit to the CONUS.

It was a fun drill that we have every season and happily it was only a drill.

[RL3AO]

Good exercise...maybe. Good use of $75,000 in fuel...maybe not?

Now that I said that, they will probably find a depression.

[wxman57]

Well, in fairness to AccuW., what would prevent the system from strengthening once it moves away from the coast of SA?

Is shear supposed to kill it off? Are the waters not favorable for development?

The problem today isn't proximity to land, it's a combination of very strong easterly low-level flow and NW winds aloft (shear). In a few days, the ridge over the Gulf is forecast to strengthen. This may produce moderate northerly shear at first as the system nears the Yucatan, but those winds aloft may become NE-ENE by Sunday as the wave reaches the coast. So there may be a short window of opportunity as the wave nears Mexico on Sunday, kind of like with 95W.

But I wonder about the GFS track trying to bring yet another system toward northern Mexico or south Texas. It's been trying to do that with just about every wave for the past 6 weeks and the ridge is holding firm here.

[Agua]

I agree. Waste of our money.

[adventure_woman]

We are traveling to the Riviera Maya on Sunday, staying till Sunday. What do you predict will be the weather then? Should we use our trip insurance and cancel? (I don't understand most of the 'weather lingo') Will it rain the whole time? How long do you predict it will last?

Thanks!
Stephanie

[Thunder44]

I can't believe recon will fly into this mess today. I can't see any evidence of any LLC. It's just a tropical wave, weaker than 95L to its west. The system with the best chance of developing isn't even an invest (SE U.S. coast).

Are you sure about that wxman57? At 1pm Caracas is reporting a west wind at 9mph. Pressure down to 1011mb.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/SVMI.html

[Portastorm]

Well, in fairness to AccuW., what would prevent the system from strengthening once it moves away from the coast of SA?

Is shear supposed to kill it off? Are the waters not favorable for development?

The problem today isn't proximity to land, it's a combination of very strong easterly low-level flow and NW winds aloft (shear). In a few days, the ridge over the Gulf is forecast to strengthen. This may produce moderate northerly shear at first as the system nears the Yucatan, but those winds aloft may become NE-ENE by Sunday as the wave reaches the coast. So there may be a short window of opportunity as the wave nears Mexico on Sunday, kind of like with 95W.

But I wonder about the GFS track trying to bring yet another system toward northern Mexico or south Texas. It's been trying to do that with just about every wave for the past 6 weeks and the ridge is holding firm here.

Is this a function of the GFS' known bias to break down ridges too early?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hugo Chavez will let a military aircraft enter Venezuelan airspace. I think it might have been Ivan a few years back where the plane turned around mid-flight because he wouldn't give clearance.

[Ed Mahmoud]

About the waste of jet fuel- I see high density obs from training flights and unless they are simulating the lat/long, they are airborne.

Think of this as a real life training flight.

[HURAKAN]

Hugo Chavez will let a military aircraft enter Venezuelan airspace. I think it might have been Ivan a few years back where the plane turned around mid-flight because he wouldn't give clearance.

I think it was Earl in 2004 when Venezuela was having something like a reelection just to vindicate Chávez as their president.

[HURAKAN]

986
ABNT20 KNHC 171758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU JUL 17 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM BERTHA...LOCATED ABOUT 390 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA.

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ABOUT
200 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CURACAO IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 20 TO 25
MPH. WHILE CONDITIONS CURRENTLY DO NOT APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW HAS
INCREASED DURING THE DAY AND AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN VENEZUELA AND ADJACENT ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KNABB

[Ed Mahmoud]

Hugo Chavez will let a military aircraft enter Venezuelan airspace. I think it might have been Ivan a few years back where the plane turned around mid-flight because he wouldn't give clearance.

I think it was Earl in 2004 when Venezuela was having something like a reelection just to vindicate Chávez as their president.

Could be. Still pretty lousy thing to do. When the USAFR is flying missions on a system that will never reach the mainland US or Puerto Rico, or at least not pose a threat for 4 or 5 days, it isn't for the benefit of the US as much as it is the people of the nations bordering the Caribbean.

[funster]

Seems like it's ok to help out the other countries by investigating this system - especially if it also increases our knowledge base for future forecasting cosas.

[alienstorm]

Looking at high resolution visible the LLC is now detected at 13N 66W clearly can be seen. Maybe my eyes but I can see it more define today than at any time yesterday. With west winds being reported in Northern Venezuela as well.

[Sanibel]

13.3N-65.6W


I think this has notched slightly north. If it finds favorability it should develop. Red IR hanging with it. Maybe a nocturnal flare tonight?

[Ed Mahmoud]

Seems like it's ok to help out the other countries by investigating this system - especially if it also increases our knowledge base for future forecasting cosas.

I don't mind, I just mind when petty dictators deny airspace to our planes down there doing a service in that part of the world.

Even Castro let the Hurricane Hunters enter Cuban airspace during Hurricane Charley.


On an unrelated topic, I wonder why Japan, and perhaps a few of its more affluent neighbors, maybe Taiwan and South Korea, don't operate something similar to our WC-130Js or WP-3Ds for typhoons that threaten the Northwest Pacific.