ATL: LEE - Remnants - Discussion

[rtd2]

rain gauge is at 1.67in. its pouring out. I keep thing about Allison in 2001 sitting on houston,TX then coming back east over NOLA then dumping 10" of rain here on the MS. coast!

[SunnyThoughts]

Just moving so slow...so much rain going to fall all along the central gulf coast because of that. Even with the dry air smacking it from the west...there is a lot of moisture in the gulf...and as Lee moves inland...all that moisture is going to follow behind.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Must admit with this latest convection blow up it is looking a lot better now than I thought it would. Wind is definitely picking up around around here with a steady rain now.

[Annie Oakley]

Not so smart Annie...missed 30....here is 31. Will post 30 on the backside
URNT15 KNHC 030343
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 31 20110903
033400 2758N 09154W 8432 01486 //// +152 //// 208008 009 012 022 05
033430 2759N 09154W 8428 01494 //// +161 //// 183004 005 027 016 01
033500 2801N 09153W 8430 01488 //// +157 //// 138005 007 025 011 01
033530 2803N 09152W 8433 01489 //// +165 //// 107005 007 023 005 01
033600 2804N 09152W 8431 01489 //// +178 //// 158008 010 022 003 01
033630 2806N 09151W 8433 01487 //// +177 //// 172009 010 021 002 01
033700 2807N 09151W 8431 01489 //// +176 //// 157009 010 023 002 01
033730 2809N 09150W 8430 01491 //// +172 //// 161009 009 022 005 01
033800 2811N 09149W 8429 01492 //// +178 //// 158011 012 023 001 01
033830 2812N 09149W 8433 01488 //// +180 //// 156011 012 020 002 01
033900 2814N 09148W 8428 01492 //// +181 //// 147010 010 020 002 01
033930 2816N 09147W 8429 01493 //// +183 //// 150010 010 018 003 05
034000 2817N 09146W 8424 01494 //// +185 //// 147008 009 017 004 05
034030 2818N 09145W 8430 01488 //// +186 //// 153009 010 019 004 01
034100 2819N 09143W 8430 01491 //// +185 //// 166009 010 019 003 01
034130 2820N 09142W 8432 01487 //// +185 //// 170010 011 016 002 01
034200 2821N 09140W 8431 01487 //// +190 //// 177011 013 016 000 01
034230 2822N 09138W 8432 01489 //// +193 //// 169009 010 012 000 01
034300 2823N 09137W 8427 01492 //// +192 //// 162010 011 011 000 05
034330 2824N 09135W 8428 01491 //// +187 //// 173013 016 008 001 01
$$
;

[Snow Deprived365]

Don from Texas says "Poof"!

[psyclone]

Just moving so slow...so much rain going to fall all along the central gulf coast because of that. Even with the dry air smacking it from the west...there is a lot of moisture in the gulf...and as Lee moves inland...all that moisture is going to follow behind.

even when the storm moves inland and tracks northeast it is likely that there will be long feederbands east of the circulation feeding in from the gulf. i wouldn't be surprised to see a heavy rain threat translate eastward along the coast into the florida panhandle well after the system makes landfall. in the meantime, boatloads of heavy rain are pushing into south central and southeast louisiana.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Annie Oakley]

30

URNT15 KNHC 030333
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 30 20110903
032400 2739N 09224W 8429 01504 //// +183 //// 338008 008 021 000 05
032430 2740N 09222W 8430 01500 //// +187 //// 325007 008 021 000 01
032500 2740N 09220W 8433 01498 //// +185 //// 343009 011 021 000 01
032530 2741N 09218W 8430 01498 //// +184 //// 341010 011 023 001 05
032600 2741N 09217W 8430 01498 //// +181 //// 341011 011 023 000 01
032630 2742N 09215W 8432 01498 //// +183 //// 330013 014 024 000 05
032700 2743N 09213W 8431 01498 //// +183 //// 316011 012 024 000 05
032730 2743N 09211W 8430 01498 //// +181 //// 316011 011 025 000 01
032800 2744N 09210W 8432 01495 //// +181 //// 326014 017 028 001 01
032830 2745N 09208W 8432 01495 //// +188 //// 328018 019 028 000 01
032900 2746N 09206W 8429 01498 //// +194 //// 327018 020 027 000 01
032930 2747N 09205W 8431 01495 //// +201 //// 329022 025 028 001 01
033000 2748N 09203W 8426 01500 //// +203 //// 328022 025 024 001 05
033030 2748N 09201W 8430 01493 //// +205 //// 318022 024 017 000 05
033100 2749N 09200W 8428 01495 //// +209 //// 301016 018 010 000 05
033130 2750N 09159W 8430 01493 //// +204 //// 297014 016 008 000 05
033200 2752N 09157W 8433 01486 //// +197 //// 287010 012 006 001 05
033230 2753N 09157W 8426 01491 //// +183 //// 319011 013 014 002 01
033300 2755N 09156W 8430 01488 //// +177 //// 323010 011 018 002 01
033330 2756N 09155W 8430 01491 //// +171 //// 313005 007 023 006 01
$$

[BigB0882]

Our met also showed a graphic showing us only getting about 2 inches of rain. Now I have no idea what to expect with this. Rain? 2 inches is nothing around here! Wind? We shall see. This could end up being a nasty wet weekend or it could feel like an actual tropical storm, guess we should know by Sunday.

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 31

2 choices: Feeling their way or following instructions from NHC.

Annie, you should ask to borrow Dave's 10 min timer...lol

[SoupBone]

The "feel" outside right now in Red Stick is definitely tropical in nature. No doubt about that. Watching that burst of activity in his NW quad is concerning.

[BigB0882]

The GFS is running but I don't know where to get it so I cheated and looked in the Katia thread.

In 24 hours shows it just about making landfall but looks West to me from where NHC has it, looks south of Lafayette, possibly even West of that. Maybe it moves due East after that, I don't know, but that is what I see 24 hours in on the 00Z GFS.

Hr 48, still just barely off shore in about the same place, maybe moved a touch East but really hardly any discernable movement. This is concerning if I am reading it right, 48 more hours over water although VERY close to shore so the slightest difference could have it on land.

[Annie Oakley]

10 minute timer eh? Great idea. Dave thinks of everything-he is always so exact ha ha. BTW he said to tell you he went to Alaska for a break.

[Annie Oakley]

URNT15 KNHC 030353
AF306 0413A LEE HDOB 32 20110903
034400 2825N 09134W 8432 01485 //// +189 //// 182017 018 011 001 01
034430 2826N 09132W 8431 01486 //// +192 //// 181018 018 009 000 01
034500 2827N 09131W 8432 01487 //// +195 //// 177019 020 008 001 01
034530 2828N 09129W 8432 01488 //// +196 //// 183021 021 013 000 01
034600 2829N 09127W 8432 01487 //// +194 //// 180020 021 014 000 01
034630 2830N 09126W 8429 01489 //// +190 //// 176022 023 015 000 01
034700 2831N 09124W 8431 01488 //// +186 //// 179022 023 016 001 01
034730 2832N 09122W 8432 01483 //// +186 //// 179022 022 017 000 01
034800 2833N 09121W 8431 01487 //// +190 //// 183023 023 016 000 01
034830 2834N 09119W 8429 01489 //// +190 //// 185023 024 015 000 01
034900 2835N 09117W 8429 01489 //// +194 //// 189027 028 014 000 01
034930 2836N 09116W 8429 01487 //// +196 //// 193028 028 015 001 01
035000 2837N 09114W 8434 01481 //// +191 //// 181029 030 015 001 01
035030 2838N 09112W 8430 01488 //// +193 //// 182031 033 012 001 01
035100 2839N 09111W 8431 01486 //// +180 //// 178030 030 013 000 01
035130 2840N 09109W 8433 01488 //// +179 //// 175030 031 009 001 01
035200 2841N 09107W 8433 01488 //// +180 //// 175030 031 011 001 01
035230 2842N 09106W 8429 01492 //// +180 //// 173032 033 015 000 01
035300 2843N 09104W 8429 01494 //// +181 //// 174030 031 016 000 01
035330 2844N 09102W 8433 01491 //// +180 //// 174029 029 017 000 01
$$
;

[JSDS]

Our met also showed a graphic showing us only getting about 2 inches of rain. Now I have no idea what to expect with this. Rain? 2 inches is nothing around here! Wind? We shall see. This could end up being a nasty wet weekend or it could feel like an actual tropical storm, guess we should know by Sunday.

I'm not sure who you were watching, but the met I was watching said that due to a slight shift in track, he now thinks Baton Rouge could get up to 10" (up from his earlier forecast of 4"-8").

[BigB0882]

Our met also showed a graphic showing us only getting about 2 inches of rain. Now I have no idea what to expect with this. Rain? 2 inches is nothing around here! Wind? We shall see. This could end up being a nasty wet weekend or it could feel like an actual tropical storm, guess we should know by Sunday.

I'm not sure who you were watching, but the met I was watching said that due to a slight shift in track, he now thinks Baton Rouge could get up to 10" (up from his earlier forecast of 4"-8").

I watched NBC 33, I think it was Jessie Gunkel. Is he a met? I don't have a preference, it was just the channel that happened to be on.

[weatherSnoop]

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HDOB 32

[JSDS]

I was watching Jay Grimes - he is definitely my met of choice.

[ConvergenceZone]

If this was going to sitting in the gulf longer, I would say that it would have a good chance at becomming a hurricane, but they keep moving the landfall up time wise. I remember last night they were thinking sometime on Sunday, and now it's looking as if this will move inland within the next 24 to 36 hours. It also seems like it really picks up speed Monday which is quite a change from before.

Regardless, the rain is still going to be bad, and I'm sure we will hear many reports of flooding. But let's breathe a sigh of release that this isn't a medium to strong hurricane moving very slowly inland, which was my biggest fear....

[BigB0882]

Yes, could you imagine if this had formed into a major and then stalled but with favorable conditions? Yikes, hurricane conditions for days would be unimaginable.

[weatherSnoop]

No impressive winds to be found tonight, though recon headed to NE quad