ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

I've been addicted to following this the past couple days. Is there anything between Dorian's current location and CONUS that can inhibit development? It seems like the Caribbean was a big hope for weakening the storm. I suppose you can never really be certain either way, but are there any other obvious obstacles to achieving Major status?

None that I can see.

[psyclone]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

The current standard is 48 hour lead time before the onset of tropical storm conditions for watches...so we still have time.

[KC7NEC]

The thing about the EMCWF is its tracking more west which is could be very likely due to the earlier and rapid strengthening of the storm. A couple of hours ago we were already talking about a more west track. This being said the EMCWF is quite concerning.

[Highteeld]

This thing looks like it's bombing out on satellite

[supercane4867]

So much for all the season cancelled talks earlier this month.

[Highteeld]

https://www.facebook.com/twcmikeseidel/ ... 082156487/

[northjaxpro]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

The current standard is 48 hour lead time before the onset of tropical storm conditions for watches...so we still have time.

Thanks Psyclone for the reminder of standard of 48 hours before the onset of tropical storm conditions.

Friday will likely to the day for watches over Florida.

[MacTavish]

By all means prepare yourself but this is still about 4 days away. A lot can change in a short period of time as we have already seen.

[EquusStorm]

Given the rapid rate of strengthening and overall organization - plus the winds reported in the Virgin Islands already sustained and gusting that high - I wouldn't be shocked to see a major by early tomorrow, maybe even overnight... has all the hallmarks of something that's already off to the races.

[Patrick99]

https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1166784523054538753

I might say that "honing in" is just a litttttllleeee too precise right now. I'm sure there will be many adjustments back and forth. I will go back to Irma, when just 2-3 days out, we had stunning model "consensus" of downtown Miami basically taking an 880mb Cat. 5 up the gut. Of course, that did not happen, with her little extra westward jaunt and Cuba excursion.

[wxman57]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

Not with that track. Too early.

Early Friday morning would be 48 hrs before possible landfall. Maybe 11pm EDT tomorrow, as TS winds may be a little over 48 hrs from landfall then.

[jdjaguar]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=05L&product=ir

This thing looks like it's bombing out on satellite.

pinhole eye on last frame

[Buck]

Wow this thread is moving fast... maybe it's my old age (32)...

[psyclone]

I’m guessing they’ll start posting Hurricane Watches for much of the east coast of Florida by tomorrow morning, correct?

The current standard is 48 hour lead time before the onset of tropical storm conditions for watches...so we still have time.

Thanks Psyclone for the reminder of standard of 48 hours before the onset of tropical storm conditions.

Friday will likely to the day for watches over Florida.

Worth noting that some high population areas need more than 48 hours for an orderly evacuation procedure so some evacs may commence before watches are issued

[ronjon]

I've been addicted to following this the past couple days. Is there anything between Dorian's current location and CONUS that can inhibit development? It seems like the Caribbean was a big hope for weakening the storm. I suppose you can never really be certain either way, but are there any other obvious obstacles to achieving Major status?

Welcome to the board! Yes I can attest it can be quite addicting lol. At this point, it looks unlikely but there is plenty of time before predicted landfall. We can hope for some wind shear from that upper level low to its SW to perhaps keep it somewhat in check but most models now significantly strengthen the system in the Bahamas. Additionally, there is still some uncertainty with the strength of the ridge that will steer Dorian the next several days. I have seen storms in the past go south of the peninsula through the straits in this type of set up. Best we can hope for at this point.

[artist]

Old school, fill the bathtub

new school, i want the cleanest water available...lol

I have a well and a solar system to power it which feeds into a reverse osmosis system, so yeah I can have the cleanest water I want. But cleaning out a container for emergencies seems fine.

Wells can become contaminated from a storm, though.

[KC7NEC]

The HWRF is also looking to cross the state and back into the gulf...

[Hurricane Jed]

Dorian, master of surprises.

[HDGator]

WXFLOW XBUK Station, St Thomas, VI reported 81mph sustained winds Gusting to 100mph.
Dorian is getting his act together.

[hipshot]

the nhc will have too come south now, 75-100 miles based on that ridge as depicted in the euro...they didnt do much at 11 but they have too much respect for the euro to not adjust accordingly...all interests from the cape to key largo you better prepare for a landfalling major, keys you are in play too...that gfs nonsense from yesterday is a faded memory

I'd be surprised if the NHC lurches that much in a single forecast cycle. A more likely scenario is a small adjustment each forecast cycle assuming that trend remains intact. it certainly seems the risk to FL is increasing but it is still several days out.

i think they come that far only because they didnt do much on the last disco even though they had euro support already and now we have another euro run and gfs coming in farther to the left....they dont like big changes but they really ramped up the intensity at 11 and they dont want to get boxed in especially because then its 11 pm on the next disco and they lose even more time...let see what they do..there is no denying that ridge

Where is the ridge to the north located and is it moving?