Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Droop12]

Now we just gotta know which path Ernie takes over Cuba because it will be crucial in his strength getting into the Gulf.

[Jim Cantore]

I haven't seen that many models agree like that in a while. However, it doesn't give me alot of piece of mind on it's landfall point.

[SWFLA_CANE]

Does it provide an updated intensity forecast?

[CrazyC83]

Now we just gotta know which path Ernie takes over Cuba because it will be crucial in his strength getting into the Gulf.

Correct. Right now, it could be anything from a tropical depression to a Category 2 hurricane when it emerges.

[Opal storm]

I think the models are starting get it together now.This is definitely looking like a central/northern FL peninsula landfall now.I think the dramatic shifts are done,it's down to the wire now.

[Cyclenall]

the next 12 hours are critical

This needs to get to about 19.8 or it misses the E Cuban peninsula and stays in the Carib for a long time

Also, that ML shear that was affecting it is gone now and we should see an intensifying system

That would be quite the shocker for some. This could change almost everything then right?

Look at this on the NHC site:

Link: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/CH ... hics.shtml

Click on the 5-day track and watch the start of the loop. Almost the exact same as Ernesto!!

[wxman57]

wxman57, looks like it is trending a little more W or WNW now. Is that correct do you think? Thank you.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Not looking at it now, dixie. Got up at 5am and was at the office at 5:45 (25 min drive). Went nonstop all day. Got home at 5:30pm, looked at the storm for 30 minutes then mowed the lawn. Time for dinner.

[Thunder44]

853
SXXX50 KNHC 272339
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 55 KNHC
2329. 1802N 07415W 01524 0028 224 029 178 162 030 01585 0000000000
2330 1803N 07416W 01524 0028 217 025 180 168 026 01585 0000000000
2330. 1804N 07418W 01524 0028 218 023 174 174 024 01585 0000000000
2331 1805N 07419W 01524 0028 226 019 174 174 020 01585 0000000000
2331. 1806N 07420W 01526 0028 227 010 162 162 014 01586 0000000000
2332 1807N 07422W 01523 0028 232 007 162 162 008 01584 0000000000
2332. 1808N 07423W 01523 0028 215 007 174 174 008 01584 0000000000
2333 1809N 07425W 01525 0027 219 003 164 164 005 01586 0000000000
2333. 1810N 07426W 01523 0027 246 005 170 170 007 01583 0000000000
2334 1811N 07428W 01525 0027 238 005 172 172 008 01585 0000000000
2334. 1811N 07429W 01525 0028 267 001 164 164 002 01586 0000000000
2335 1812N 07431W 01522 0029 274 004 174 174 005 01584 0000000000
2335. 1813N 07432W 01525 0030 305 003 170 170 003 01587 0000000000
2336 1814N 07434W 01525 0034 292 005 166 166 007 01592 0000000000
2336. 1813N 07435W 01525 0032 301 005 174 174 006 01589 0000000000
2337 1811N 07435W 01523 0032 282 009 176 176 010 01588 0000000000
2337. 1809N 07434W 01523 0033 263 012 172 172 014 01589 0000000000
2338 1808N 07433W 01523 0032 257 014 170 170 016 01589 0000000000
2338. 1807N 07432W 01525 0032 257 015 172 172 015 01590 0000000000
2339 1805N 07431W 01525 0032 260 019 168 168 019 01590 0000000000
;


Past the last fix and still not at the center.

[Weatherfreak000]

Yeah I agree, on the last frames it looks like it's definitely moving West.



That's bad for seeing it fall apart, it looks like it may have some room for development and yet again we may have to throw away intensity forecasting...


Time will tell..

[cycloneye]

The last VDM of this mission is comming in minutes.

[cinlfla]

I just looked at the vis loop and it looks like Ernesto took a jump west, is this right? or am I seeing things? This could change things if it continues. Just a thought.

[SouthFloridawx]

453
UZNT13 KNHC 272345
XXAA 77233 99163 70813 04561 99010 28435 32001 00089 27629 30502
92776 22850 06002 85509 18650 04508 70151 10657 11514 50587 05714
06517 40759 15334 18010 30970 30940 13514 88999 77999
31313 09608 82314
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 SPL 1628N08133W 2326 AEV 20604 =
XXBB 77238 99163 70813 04561 00010 28435 11952 23804 22923 22656
33877 19631 44850 18650 55812 15832 66778 14237 77764 13857 88750
12848 99701 10857 11642 04817 22589 01823 33462 09509 44439 10734
55381 17356 66348 23126 77299 31140
21212 00010 32001 11985 30005 22974 29502 33969 32504 44960 01001
55882 10501 66850 04508 77757 02011 88738 06011 99722 06010 11702
11513 22686 11015 33642 13516 44572 08018 55530 07517 66507 06018
77468 06510 88398 18511 99367 17514 11336 14514 22324 15513 33311
24510 44299 13515
31313 09608 82314
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 11
62626 SPL 1628N08133W 2326 AEV 20604 =

[SouthFloridawx]

30
URNT12 KNHC 272345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/23:34:00Z
B. 18 deg 11 min N
074 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 235 deg 031 kt
G. 127 deg 018 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 17 C/ 1527 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 23
MAX FL WIND 31 KT SE QUAD 23:28:30 Z
;

[ronjon]

If I'm plotting correct, the 18Z GFDL has landfall just north of Tampa Bay near Crystal River. It essentially skims the coast from Pinellas up to Citrus County and then inland - its slightly west of the NHC official track.

[JPmia]

[quote="Opal storm"]I think the models are starting get it together now.This is definitely looking like a central/northern FL peninsula landfall now.I think the dramatic shifts are done,it's down to the wire now.[/quote

I don't think we can be so sure yet. It might be jogging around west or wnw right now...and it still has to cross cuba...once those two occur then i think start talking about down to the wire..at least that is my thinking right now...I still remember Charley and those last minute jogs...also the angle it will be approaching the west FL coast will make the forecast even more difficult.

[Stratosphere747]

I just looked at the vis loop and it looks like Ernesto took a jump west, is this right? or am I seeing things? This could change things if it continues. Just a thought.

VDM will be in shortly...

Most likely it's just interaction with Haiti...

[ConvergenceZone]

looks like GFDL is on board with the recurve into Tampa area over g'vill, then up into inland SC

Looks like a Tampa area landfall is getting more and more likely. Remember, each day the chance of the models shifting again goes down quite a bit. I think they are finally narrowing in on the landfall.

[cycloneye]

URNT12 KNHC 272345
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/23:34:00Z
B. 18 deg 11 min N
074 deg 29 min W
C. 850 mb 1482 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 235 deg 031 kt
G. 127 deg 018 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 17 C/ 1527 m
J. 18 C/ 1523 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 23
MAX FL WIND 31 KT SE QUAD 23:28:30 Z
;

Here it is.

[Derek Ortt]

its not intensifying and has weakened even further

[Scorpion]

So much for strengthening.