Caribbean - Central America Weather

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
458 AM AST Sun Jun 12 2022

.SYNOPSIS...High concentrations of Saharan dust will spread over
the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico today. This will create
hazy skies, reducevisibilities as well as limit the shower
development across the local islands. Early in the week, wet
trades will bring scattered showers across the local region from
time to time. Then, wet and unstable conditions will be likely
between Wednesday and Thursday due to a tropical wave and an
upper-level trough/TUTT. Afterward, a drier and more stable air
mass will return to the islandsFriday into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

A broad surface high pressure over the eastern Atlantic will
promote an east-southeasterly wind flow over the region today. A
dry airmass with precipitable water values below normal and high
concentrations of Saharan dust will move into the forecast area.
Environmental conditions are hostile for shower development, however
daytime heating and local effects could produce very localized
showers over northwestern sections of Puerto Rico. Today should be
the driest day for the next few days. Weather conditions will change
slightly on Monday, as the surface high pressure establishes over
the central Atlantic promoting an east-northeasterly trade winds.
Under this east-northeast flow, fragments of low level moisture
will reach the local area at times favoring scattered showers over
the eastern and northeast portions of the islands, followed by
afternoon convection over the southwestern quadrant of Puerto
Rico. A similar weather pattern is forecast on Tuesday. However,
the proximity of an upper level trough could enhance the afternoon
convection over western Puerto Rico on Tuesday afternoon.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Conditions will become wetter and unstable by midweek. A tropical wave
is forecast to reach the eastern Caribbean Wednesday. The wave will
likely bringa few rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the
region. Operational models suggest that moisture will start increasing
over the local Caribbean Waters early in the morning and then spread
over Puerto Rico on Wednesday afternoon. At this time, GFS suggests
that the U.S. Virgin Islands will remain generally dry because the
bulk of the moisture will remain over the Caribbean Waters, Mona
Passage and portions of Puerto Rico. Therefore, the highest chanceof
receivingheavy rainfall withthis wave will be Puerto Rico. Conditions
will quickly improve Wednesday evening as a slot of drier air filters
as the tropical wave departures. However, the fair-weather conditions
will not last long as unsettled conditions will return on Thursday.
The weather feature that will induce the unstable conditions will be
a retrogressing TUTT. This feature will become near stationary north
of Hispanola, allowing deep tropical moisture to pool over the northeast
Caribbean early on Thursday. The high moisture content will combine
with enhanced instability associated with the TUTT to support organized
convection over the Caribbean waters and portions of Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. The exact timing of the heaviest shower activity
may be adjusted, however, there is a decent chance to experience showers
and thunderstorms both days between Wednesday and Thursday, especially
over Puerto Rico.

Weather conditions will improve significantly on Friday as mid- level
high pressure builds over the eastern Caribbean. The ridge will erode
theavailable moisture resulting in less shower activity. There is
a lot of Saharan dust in the tropical Atlantic between Africa and
the Caribbean, therefore hazy skies will probably accompany the stable
conditions Friday into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Mainly VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF terminals
during the period. VIS will remain up to 6SM in some of the sites
due to HZ of the Saharan Dust. SFC winds will remain up to 10-15
kts, increasing more at 12/14Z with sea breeze variation. VCSH are
included for the TJBQ due to some afternoon convection around
12/18Z.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate to locally fresh will persist through at least late
tonight. As a result, choppy seas of 4-6 feet are forecast especially
across the offshore waters. Also, pulses of a small northerly swell
combined with the wind waves will produce a high risk of rip currents
for the northern and southeastern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra
and Vieques as well as the east coast beaches of St. Croix late
tonight. Typical marine conditions will return early in the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 79 88 77 / 10 30 40 20
STT 90 78 88 78 / 20 30 30 30

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1536097075540148225

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
449 AM AST Mon Jun 13 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Saharan dust will gradually diminish during the day, but skies
will remain hazy. A tropical wave should bring showers and
isolated thunderstorms by the latter part of the workweek. For the
upcoming weekend, another cloud of Saharan dust is expected to
filter into the islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Haziness will slowly subside through this evening. Calm weather
conditions will prevail through the morning hours. Moisture should
gradually increase today, as it is suggested by GOES-E Total
Precipitable Water Values, which are around 1.55 inches. This patchy
moisture is near average values in our climatology for June, so
isolated to scattered showers will move across the local waters, and
some of them will make their way into the Virgin Islands and
windward portions of Puerto Rico. Instability will also increase as
a retrograding TUTT approaches the islands. This upper-level
feature, combined with local effects, diurnal heating, and sea
breeze variations, will result in a round of scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms across the interior and southwest quadrant
of Puerto Rico due to the northeast winds. Meanwhile, the 500 m-bar
temperature should range between -8 and -9 degrees C. Urban and
small stream flooding will likely be with the strongest
thunderstorms and downpours.

A similar weather pattern should prevail on Tuesday, but with the
concentration of Saharan Dust particles almost untraceable. As winds
veer from the east-southeast, the afternoon convection should
concentrate across the northwest quadrant of Puerto Rico, downwind
from the Virgin Islands, and with the possibility of observing El
Yunque Streamer over the San Juan Metropolitan Area.

An induced surface trough will arrive Wednesday, promoting unsettle
weather conditions. Therefore, at this time, the best chance in the
short term to observe widespread rain activity seems to be between
early Wednesday morning and early evening.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...
As an upper level trough lingers northwest of the region, a
tropical wave will cross the local islands. This feature will
pull tropical moisture from the south, resulting in an increased
frequency of showers, as well as isolated thunderstorms. The GFS
is forecasting columnar moisture to increase all the way into the
upper levels of the atmosphere, and with the instability provided
by the trough, some of these showers could be strong at times. As
the tropical wave departs toward the central Caribbean, moisture
content will gradually decrease, and the bulk of the activity
should focus over the local waters as well as the northwestern
quadrant of Puerto Rico during the afternoon hours. By late Friday
and for the weekend, the air mass will dry out as Saharan dust
filters in. This cloud is not expected to be as dense as the one
that moved over the area yesterday, but should still result in
hazy skies for the upcoming weekend, with limited rainfall
activity expected over the local area.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds expected across the local terminals through
the forecast period. Saharan Dust Particles will continue over the
local flying area but VIS will remain P6SM. TSRA/SHRA will develop
across the interior and SW PR between 13/18-22z and could impact the
vicinity of JPS/JBQ. Winds will continue calm to light and VRB thru
13/13z, returning from the ENE at 10-20 kt with higher gusts and sea
breeze variations.


&&

.MARINE...
Recent buoy observation show seas 2 to 3 feet along the northern
coast of Puerto Rico and Vieques, and up to 4 feet south of St.
John. Moderate to fresh trade winds will maintain seas 3 to 5 feet
today, and up to 6 feet during the next several days.

For the beaches, there is a high rip current risk for the
north-central and northwest coast of Puerto Rico, and a moderate
risk elsewhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 90 77 / 30 50 40 50
STT 89 78 89 78 / 30 30 30 50

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
449 AM AST Tue Jun 14 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue to increase in frequency through mid-week as
a tropical wave approaches the islands. The best potential for
rain activity will be on Wednesday and Thursday. By the end of
the week and into the weekend, another Saharan Air Layer will
result in hazy skies.


&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...
An increase in the available moisture and instability associated
with a TUTT low near the region will promote shower activity
mainly across the local waters, the Virgin Islands, and east and
south Puerto Rico through the morning. Once again, diurnal heating
and sea breeze fluctuations enhanced by 500 MB temperature
between -8 and -9 degrees C and steep lapse rates at low and mid-
levels will promote isolated to scattered thunderstorms across the
interior and northwest sections of Puerto Rico during the
afternoon. Under a southeast-easterly wind flow, El Yunque streamer
could produce periods of moderate to locally heavy rain in the
San Juan Metropolitan Area. Urban and small stream flooding will
likely be with the strongest thunderstorms and downpours.

We are forecasting a wet and unstable weather pattern for Wednesday
and Thursday. First, an induced surface trough will arrive after
midnight (tonight), providing deeper instability and better moisture
and resulting in unsettled weather conditions. Then, a tropical wave
should affect by early Thursday morning, enhancing shower and
thunderstorm formation once again. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate
plenty of moisture along the air column and favorable instability
parameters, which are suitable for organized convection.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...
Lingering moisture from a departing tropical wave will cause some
showers early on Friday, mainly across eastern Puerto Rico and the
U.S. Virgin Islands. As the moisture field associated with the wave
moves westward, another Saharan Air Layer will begin to filter in
from the east. This will cause the mid-levels to dry out from 850 mb
all the way to 300 mb, at least through Sunday. At the upper levels,
a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) will dig between
Hispaniola and Cuba lingering through much of the long-term period.
However, at the mid-levels a ridge will build from the east and
should hold through the first part of the upcoming workweek. For the
weekend, rainfall activity should be limited to the northwest
quadrant of Puerto Rico, and due to the drier air layer, the global
models are not showing any areas with high accumulation. Moving into
the first half of the workweek, even with the ridge aloft, patches
of moisture dragged by the trade winds should increase in frequency.
This will increase the potential for morning showers affecting
eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, with the usual
afternoon convection developing across western Puerto Rico each day.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conds expected across the local terminals through the forecast
period. SHRA will move across IST/ISX/JSJ at time during the morning
hours. TSRA/SHRA will develop across the interior and NW PR between
14/18-22z and could impact the vicinity of JBQ. Under an ESE wind
flow, El Yunque Streamer could produce periods of SHRA/+SHRA and
isolated TSRA near JSJ btwn 14/16-20z. Winds will continue calm to
light and VRB thru 14/13z, then from the ESE at 10-20 kt with higher
gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Choppy seas up to 6 feet with winds up to 20 knots are expected to
prevail through the next few days. Showers will increase in
frequency as a tropical wave approaches by mid-week. Seas could
become locally hazardous around any thunderstorm that develops,
especially along the western coast of Puerto Rico. For the
beaches, the risk of rip currents is moderate almost everywhere.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 88 78 / 40 50 60 60
STT 90 78 86 78 / 30 30 30 60

&&

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
502 AM AST Wed Jun 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Unsettled weather conditions are anticipated to continue through
the end of the workweek due to an upper level trough today, and an
approaching tropical wave late today and tomorrow. Saharan dust
will follow for the end of the workweek and the weekend, resulting
in hazy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

Overnight thunderstorms and downpour activity were due to a tropical
upper tropospheric trough-low (TUTT-low). This activity will
continue today as the induced surface trough swings by the islands.
Therefore, unsettled weather conditions will prevail through much of
the day today. However, the Virgin Islands can expect a short break
in rain activity early this morning; however, the potential to
observe thunderstorms and showers will return mid-morning into the
afternoon. The south, southwest, east, and northeast Puerto Rico can
expect showers and thunderstorms in the morning, spreading into the
interior, north, and northwest by the afternoon. Under a southeast-
easterly wind flow, El Yunque Streamer could produce periods of
moderate to locally heavy rain in the San Juan Metropolitan Area.
Urban and small stream flooding will likely be with the strongest
thunderstorms and downpours, frequent lightning, and thunderstorm
winds.

An approaching tropical wave will arrive late tonight into Thursday,
promoting an unstable and wet pattern across the islands. Also, the
upper-level feature will enhance showers and thunderstorms on
Thursday. Both GFS and ECMWF indicate plenty of moisture along the
air column and favorable instability parameters to observe more
organized convection.

Weather conditions will slowly improve after late Thursday afternoon
as a dry air mass filters from the east. A Saharan Air Layer (SAL)
will bring additional African Dust Particles over the skies of
PR/USVI creating hazy skies on Friday. Rain activity should diminish
significantly on Friday, though afternoon convection with isolated
strong thunderstorms will remain possible, especially across the
northern half of Puerto Rico.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday...

An upper level trough will linger north of the islands through the
weekend, while a mid-level ridge builds from the east. At the
lower levels, the air mass will be dry due to a Saharan Air Layer
filtering in from the east. This should result in hazy skies at
least through Sunday. Even under the presence of an upper level
trough, the low level dry air and the building ridge should work
to limit shower activity along the northwestern quadrant of Puerto
Rico during the afternoon hours.

By Monday, the upper level low lift into the northern Atlantic,
while the mid-level ridge hold aloft, although remaining weak.
The pressure gradient will tighten, resulting in stronger easterly
winds. This pattern will drag patches of moisture into the local
islands. Moisture is expected to increase enough to generate
stronger convection each afternoon along the northwestern quadrant
of Puerto Rico, with the potential for isolated thunderstorms each
day.



&&

.AVIATION...
Unstable weather conditions will prevail today. TSRA will affect JPS
thru at least 15/12z. SHRA/TSRA will continue moving across the
local flying area and some of them will affect the local terminals.
TSRA will develop across the Cordillera Central after 15/18z and
could impact JSJ/JBQ, SHRA/isold-TSRA will develop downwind from the
Virgin Islands, too. Winds will continue at 10 kt or less, but gusty
near SHRA/TSRA thru 15/13z, then from the ESE at 10-20 kt with
higher gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the local waters
today, further increasing later today and on Thursday as a
tropical wave approaches. Seas could become locally hazardous
around these thunderstorms. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds prevail, resulting in choppy conditions. For the
beaches, there is a moderate rip current risk for many of the
local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 87 77 / 60 70 60 30
STT 88 78 88 78 / 40 70 40 10

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
500 AM AST Thu Jun 16 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

An upper-level trough and a tropical wave will promote unstable
and wet conditions across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
today. The weather pattern should become drier and more stable
Friday through Tuesday next week as an extensive Saharan Air Layer
arrives and a mid-level ridge slowly builds aloft. Unstable
weather conditions will return by mid-week next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...
An upper level trough lingers north of the area, while a tropical
wave crosses the eastern Caribbean Sea. The moisture field of this
feature is evident on satellite imagery, with precipitable water
derived from GOES-16 showing values just above two inches. As the
tropical wave advances into the area, lines of showers are expected
to affect the municipalities of the south and east Puerto Rico and
the U.S. Virgin Islands. For the afternoon, the forecast is a little
uncertain, mainly due to an upper level cloud layer that could limit
the amount of sunshine received across the area. However, under the
unsettled weather pattern, and assuming enough sunshine is observed,
another round of active weather is anticipated with showers and
thunderstorms across all the interior and northern Puerto Rico. The
strongest activity is expected for the northwest quadrant, and some
of these storms could be strong at times, with gusty winds, heavy
rain and frequent cloud to ground lightning.

Immediately behind the wave, there is a layer of Saharan Air Layer,
that should filter in as soon as late tomorrow and holding in until
the weekend, resulting in hazy skies. The upper level trough will
hold through the period, but with drier air at the lower levels,
shower and isolated thunderstorm activity is expected to be focused
over western Puerto Rico in the afternoon hours.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

A mid-level ridge and an extensive Saharan Air Layer will promote
stable atmospheric conditions with hazy skies Sunday through at
least Monday. However, the surface pressure gradient will tighten,
resulting in stronger easterly winds. This pattern will bring
pockets of moisture into the local islands to generate good
convection each afternoon along the northwestern quadrant of
Puerto Rico. This moisture embedded in the trades will also
promote the typical overnight and morning passing showers across
the windward sections of the islands. In addition, maximum
temperatures could range in the low or even mid-90s each
afternoon.

Model guidance indicates a transition to an unstable weather
pattern by the next mid-week. This transition is associated with a
mid to upper-level trough amplifying across the local Caribbean,
which is in harmony with an MJO negative phase (which is favorable
for good dynamic locally). The limiting factor at this time seems
to be the available moisture, which is not so impressive as to
produce the so-needed rainfall activity.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions expected through 16z across all
terminals. SHRA/TSRA expected after 16Z, with possible periods of
MVFR/IFR conditions for TJSJ and TJBQ, and mountain obscuration
across the Cordillera Central. VCSH are expected for all the other
terminals through 22Z, with periods of reduced VIS and low ceilings.
Winds will be out of the southeast at 10 to 15 knots, with stronger
gusts near thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...

The tropical wave will bring showers and thunderstorms to the
local waters today. Seas could become locally hazardous around
these thunderstorms. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds will create choppy conditions. A surface high pressure
across the Atlantic Ocean could increase somewhat local winds late
this weekend into next week.

Beachgoers, there is a moderate rip current risk for many of the
local beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 86 77 91 78 / 60 20 20 20
STT 88 79 87 78 / 50 10 20 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
521 AM AST Sat Jun 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Hazy skies are forecast to continue through the weekend due
suspended particulates of Saharan dust that continues to filter
into the region. These particles are limiting the convective
activity that the local islands need. Warmer temperatures should
continue this weekend mainly across urban areas and areas in low
elevation with heat indices in the low 100s especially in the
north-central area of Puerto Rico in the late morning and
afternoon hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...
Saharan dust across the local area and in the Atlantic is causing
hazy skies and will continue through the weekend into Monday.
Surface nigh pressure int he northeaster Atlantic and surface low
across the northwestern Atlantic will promote an ESE wind flow
across the local area for the next few days. Under this pattern,
mainly fair weather is expected, although isolated to scattered
showers are possible, especially in the afternoons across portions of
western and northwestern PR. On Monday, since there is less Saharan
dust expected, and a patch of moisture will move in, numerous
showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast across the
northwestern quadrant of PR in the afternoon hours, while scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast in other areas of
PR. The USVI is expected to maintain only slight chances of rain,
but scattered showers are posible at times.

SE winds are expected today, and generally these conditions are
conductive for hot temperatures to develop across the urban areas
and municipalities with low elevations across northern PR. High
temperatures today are expected to be slightly higher than normal at
the San Juan Airport (JSJ) with 91 degrees in the forecast, while
the normal value is 89. Heat index is expected to be in the 98 to
105 range across northern Puerto Rico this afternoon. For the USVI,
the daytime highs are forecast to be around normal, in the upper
80s.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...
No significant change has been made to the inherited forecast.
Expect stable atmospheric conditions to prevail until mid-week as
the mid level ridge moves over the area being forecast. The
surface high pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to
promote easterly winds through at least mid-week. Late in the
workweek the winds are expected to turn more east-southeasterly
as this surface feature lingers across the area. This pattern will
bring patches of moisture to most of the local islands which will
help locally induce convection along the northwestern quadrant of
Puerto Rico each afternoon. The moisture content embedded in the
trade winds will promote the typical weather pattern of overnight
and early morning passing showers across the windward sections of
the islands. That being said, maximum temperatures could range in
the upper 80s to lower 90s each afternoon.

Latest guidance continues to suggest a slightly unstable weather
pattern by the end of the week. This transition is due to an
amplifying mid to upper level trough across the Caribbean. The
increase in moisture is expected to prevail until the beginning of
the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
HZ due to Saharan dust will prevail, but VIS expected to remain at
P6SM. VCSH expected after 18/17Z at TJBQ. Winds will be out of the
SE at 10 to 15 knots with gusts and sea breeze variations.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate east to southeasterly winds should continue
during the next few days. Winds will gradually increase late
Saturday into Monday causing choppy and breezy conditions entering
next week. Hazy skies are forecast to continue through the
weekend due suspended Saharan dust particulates. A moderate risk
of rip currents should prevail today for most of the beaches in
Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 91 77 89 77 / 10 20 20 40
STT 88 78 88 77 / 20 20 30 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
459 AM AST Sun Jun 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Hazy skies will prevail today across the region. A
wind surge will bring better moisture content late today through
Monday. A tropical wave is forecast to pass well south of the area
on Tuesday, and drier air conditions will return by midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tuesday...

Saharan dust across the local area is causing hazy skies and will
continue through today, improving for Monday and Tuesday. Surface
high pressure in the northeastern Atlantic will promote an easterly
wind flow across the local area for the next few days. Under this
pattern, mainly fair weather is expected today, although isolated to
scattered showers are possible with isolated thunderstorms,
especially this afternoons across portions of western and
northwestern PR. On Monday, with much less Saharan dust expected, a
patch of moisture moving in, and an upper trough approaching from
the NNW, numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are forecast
across the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR in the morning hours,
then moving to western PR in the afternoon, while isolated to
scattered showers are expected elsewhere in the afternoon hours.
Thereafter, drier air is expected to move in, and decreasing the
chances of significant rainfall from Monday night into Tuesday.
Isolated showers, if any are forecast on Monday night into Tuesday
morning across the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR. Then
scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are forecast for
western PR for Tuesday afternoon. Essentially Monday looks to be the
wettest day in the short term period, with the model guidance
showing decent coverage of shower activity across the local islands,
though at this time it looks like the south coastal areas of PR has
the lowest chance of rainfall.

High temperatures today are expected to be near normal at the San
Juan Airport (JSJ) with 89 degrees in the forecast, the normal value
actually being 89. Heat index is expected to be in the 96 to 102
range across the lower elevations of Puerto Rico this afternoon. For
the USVI, the daytime highs are also forecast to be around normal,
in the upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...Wednesday through Sunday...

Early mid-week, expect stable conditions to prevail as the mid-level
ridge moves through the forecast area. On the other hand, the
surface high-pressure over the western Atlantic is forecast to
continue promoting easterly winds through at least mid-week. Later
in the workweek, the winds are expected to shift more east-
southeasterly as this surface feature lingers across the area. As
mentioned in previous discussions, this pattern will bring patches
of moisture to most of the local islands, which will help locally
induce convection along the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico
each afternoon. The moisture content embedded in the trade winds
will promote the typical weather pattern of overnight and early
morning passing showers across the windward sections of the
islands.

By the end of the workweek, expect a slightly unstable weather
pattern. This transition is due to an amplifying mid to upper-
level trough across the Caribbean. Latest-model run shows that
conditions will remain unstable during the weekend as there is no
cap at the lower levels to avoid moisture pulling into all levels
of the atmosphere.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
HZ due to Saharan dust will prevail, but VIS expected to remain at
P6SM. VCSH expected and possible VCTS after 19/17Z at TJBQ. Winds
will be out of the E at 10 to 15 knots with gusts and sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...A building high over the central Atlantic will promote
moderate to locally fresh trades through early next week. This
will cause choppy seas up to 6 feet across portions of the
regional waters. There is high risk of rip currents through late
Monday night across northern beaches of Puerto Rico.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 88 77 / 20 30 50 20
STT 89 78 87 77 / 20 50 60 20

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
457 AM AST Mon Jun 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...Expect an increased chance of shower activity as a
surge in moisture passes through and affects our region today.
A tropical wave is still forecast to pass well south of our
region on Tuesday and drier air will return by midweek. Haze
should diminish for the short term period as the Saharan Air Layer
lulls over our region.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday...

Today, with much less, if any, Saharan dust, a patch of moisture
will move in and bring showers across the local area. An upper
trough approaching from the NNW may help in the development of
numerous showers across the local waters, USVI, and eastern PR in
the morning hours, then isolated thunderstorms may start developing
across the local area late in the morning and in the afternoon as
the activity moves west, with western PR having a good chance of
more persistent showers in the afternoon. Drier air is expected to
move in on Tuesday and Wednesday, decreasing the chances of
significant rainfall. Isolated showers, if any are forecast on
Tuesday and Wednesday for the USVI, and eastern PR. But scattered
showers with isolated thunderstorms are forecast for western PR in
the afternoon hours. Today is expected to be the wettest day in the
short term period, with the model guidance showing decent coverage
of shower activity across the local islands, though at this time it
looks like the south coastal areas of PR has the lowest chance of
rainfall.

High temperatures today are expected to be near normal at the San
Juan Airport (JSJ) with 89 degrees in the forecast, the normal value
actually being 89. Heat index is expected to be in the 96 to 102
range across the lower elevations of Puerto Rico this afternoon. For
the USVI, the daytime highs are also forecast to be around normal,
in the upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday...

The forecast remains unchanged. Late mid-week, the mid-level ridge
will continue to move through the forecast area. Therefore,
stable conditions will prevail across the local islands. The low-
level high positioned over the western Atlantic is forecast to
continue promoting southeasterly winds through at least the end of
the workweek. As stated in previous discussions, this pattern
will bring more moisture to Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin
Islands and help locally induce convection along the northwestern
quadrant of Puerto Rico each afternoon. The moisture embedded in
the trades will promote the typical weather pattern of overnight
and early morning passing showers across the windward sections of
the local islands.

Expect a slightly unstable weather pattern by the end of the
workweek. This transition is due to an amplifying mid to upper-
level trough positioned over the Caribbean. Model guidances still
suggest unstable conditions during the weekend and the beginning
of the workweek. This unstable weather pattern will be possible
mainly because there is no cap at the lower levels to avoid
moisture pulling into all levels of the atmosphere.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
VCSH expected across the local terminals today as SCT/NMRS SHRA
moves across the area. But possible VCTS after 20/17Z at TJBQ. Winds
will be out of the E at 10 to 15 knots with gusts and sea breeze
variations.

&&

.MARINE...Moderate to locally fresh trades will continue through
today. Choppy wind driven seas up to 6 feet are expected until
tonight. Hazy skies will begin to clear after today. Chance of
showers and thunderstorms will increase for most of the local
waters. There is a high risk of rip currents for the northern
beaches of Puerto Rico and Culebra.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 89 78 89 78 / 50 20 10 10
STT 87 76 88 77 / 60 20 20 10

[underthwx]

Good morning CE, and everyone! I went to page 1 of your amazing topic thread, it blows my mind every time I look at it. The amount of work you must have put into it is worthy of praise. It's epic!.... Yall have a great day!

[cycloneye]

Good morning CE, and everyone! I went to page 1 of your amazing topic thread, it blows my mind every time I look at it. The amount of work you must have put into it is worthy of praise. It's epic!.... Yall have a great day!

Thank you. Since 2006 this thread is up posting about the weather in the Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1538960769479593984

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
452 AM AST Tue Jun 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated to brief showers will prevail across the islands today.
A tropical wave is still forecast to pass to our south on Thursday.
Weather conditions should deteriorate from late Wednesday through
Friday, as an upper trough positions itself in a favorable
location to cause some instability and promote longer lasting
thunderstorm development over Puerto Rico.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Thursday...

A surface high pressure across the north central Atlantic will
promote moderate easterly winds for the next few days. An upper
trough across the western Atlantic will strengthen and move south,
close to the local islands just to the north by Wednesday. This
upper trough may positions itself in a favorable location to cause
some instability and promote longer lasting thunderstorm development
over Puerto Rico in areas of sea breeze convergence, especially on
Wednesday and Thursday. The overall pattern appears to be similar
each day in the short term period with isolated and brief showers
across the local waters, USVI and eastern PR in the morning and
overnight hours, while showers and thunderstorms may develop in the
afternoon across western PR. There is a tropical wave moving through
the Caribbean today, but it is to our south, far enough that there
won`t be a significant increase in moisture. Because of the
aforementioned upper trough, the thunderstorm development on
Wednesday and Thursday may be a bit more significant than what is
expected today. That said, at this time, we do not expect a
widespread event of thunderstorms, especially when the moisture is
lacking.

High temperatures today are expected to be near normal at the San
Juan Airport (JSJ) with 88 degrees in the forecast, the normal value
actually being 89. Heat index is expected to be in the 96 to 102
range across the lower elevations of Puerto Rico this afternoon. For
the USVI, the daytime highs are also forecast to be around normal,
in the upper 80s.

.LONG TERM...Friday through Tuesday...

By the end of the workweek, as an upper-level low moves across the
forecast area, expect conditions to become slightly unstable and
likely for thunderstorm development, particularly due to sea
breeze convection and orographic lifting. The surface-high,
positioned over the central Atlantic, is forecast to continue
promoting a southeasterly wind flow through at least the end of
the workweek. These features will bring more moisture to the local
islands and help locally induce convection along the northwestern
quadrant of Puerto Rico each afternoon. Model guidances still
suggest unstable conditions through the weekend. Conditions should
gradually improve and transition into a typical June weather
pattern.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
VCSH expected across the local terminals today. Possible VCTS after
21/17Z at TJBQ. Winds will be out of the E at 10 to 15 knots with
gusts and sea breeze variations after 21/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Seas up to 5 feet are expected to prevail across the
Atlantic waters today. There is a moderate risk of rip current for
most of the local beaches, with the exception of those in the
west of Puerto Rico and USVI. Winds and seas are expected to
gradually subside from today onward.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 88 78 91 78 / 20 20 20 20
STT 88 77 87 78 / 20 20 20 20

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TTWeatherCenter/status/1539270668642050049

[cycloneye]

[Div][
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
457 AM AST Wed Jun 22 2022

.SYNOPSIS...The mid-level ridge will continue to prevail over the
area through the short term period. An upper-level trough west of
the region is expected to approach the local area on
today and Thursday. A surge in moisture content is expected on
Thursday. Locally induced afternoon showers are expected each day,
mainly over west/northwest Puerto Rico. Light to moderate trades
will prevail through the workweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Friday...

A surface high pressure across the north central Atlantic will
promote moderate winds for the next few days, but a surface low
across the western Atlantic will give the local winds a southerly
component. Therefore, SE winds are expected today and Thursday, but
winds will become easterly by Friday. An upper trough across the
western Atlantic will move south into the Caribbean, just to the
west of the local islands. This upper trough may position itself in
what would be normally a favorable location to cause some
instability and promote thunderstorm development over Puerto Rico,
especially in areas of sea breeze convergence today and Thursday.
However, a mid level ridge and dry air in the mid levels may keep
the thunderstorm development to isolated areas, though somewhat
shallow scattered showers can be expected today. The overall pattern
appears to be similar each day in the short term period with
isolated and brief showers across the local waters, USVI and eastern
PR in the morning and overnight hours, while showers and
thunderstorms may develop in the afternoon across western PR. Even
though brief patches of moisture will be moving in today and
Thursday, slightly deeper moisture is forecast by the global models
on Friday, which would contribute to better rainfall coverage.

High temperatures today are expected to be slightly above normal,
especially for northern PR because of the SE winds. Heat index is
expected to be in the 98 to 107 range across the lower elevations of
Puerto Rico this afternoon. For the USVI, the daytime highs are also
forecast to be around normal, in the upper 80s.


.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...

No significant changes have been made to the forecast. Early in
the weekend, an upper-level low will continue moving close to the
forecast area. Therefore, expect the weather conditions to remain
slightly unstable and likely for thunderstorm development, mainly
due to sea breeze convection and orographic lifting. The surface-
high, positioned over the central Atlantic, and the surface-low
over the western Atlantic will continue to promote a southeasterly
wind flow through the end of the weekend. This pattern will bring
moisture to the local islands and help locally induce convection
along the northwestern quadrant of Puerto Rico each afternoon.
Early in the workweek, the winds will become more easterly, and
they should remain like that at least until mid- week, as a
surface-high positions across the western Atlantic. Unlike
previous discussions, model guidances now suggest a gradual
improvement in weather conditions for the first part of the
workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.
VCSH expected across the local terminals today as ISOL SHRA moves
through the local area. Possible VCSH/VCTS after 22/18Z at TJBQ.
Winds will be out of the SE at 10 to 15 knots with gusts and sea
breeze variations after 22/14Z.

&&

.MARINE...Light to moderate trades are expected to prevail through
the workweek. Seas up to 4 feet will remain through the end of
the week. A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across
most of the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra, Vieques, and
eastern St. Croix on Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 90 78 / 20 30 40 20
STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 20 20 30
/Div]

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service San Juan PR
556 AM AST Thu Jun 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
As the upper-ridge erodes due to an approaching Tutt low and
associated trough from the northwest, there is a better chance for
overnight, early morning convection over portions of the islands
and some enhanced afternoon convection over the central-interior
and western sectors of Puerto Rico. However, this activity should
be more localized; widespread showers and rainfall accumulations
are not anticipated. More southeasterly winds starting on Saturday
can result in warmer temperatures through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Saturday...

Relatively dry and stable conditions continued over the region
during the overnight hours, with satellite derived precipitable
water values ranging between 1.15 and 1.60 inches as some patches of
low level moisture crossed the region. Only a few light showers
were noted over the coastal waters and on the windward side of the
islands so far this morning. For the rest of today and through Friday
a gradual increase in low level moisture advection is expected as
the trade winds increase and the upper ridge is expected to erode,
in response to a Tutt low and associated trough approaching from
the northwest and becoming amplified across the areas during the
the period. The transport of patches of trade wind moisture will
therefore increase, with precipitable water values expected to
reach more seasonal values. The proximity of the upper trough
later this afternoon and through Friday will lead to decreasing
stability aloft and therefore favor better chance for overnight
and early morning and afternoon convection over portions of the
islands. Although some enhanced afternoon convection is expected,
mainly in the central interior and west sections of Puerto rico
each day, widespread shower activity and rainfall accumulations
are still however not anticipated at this time.

Overall, a slight increase in shower activity is forecast, but as
mentioned the activity should be more localized and not widespread.
Enhanced afternoon convection with isolated thunderstorms will remain
possible each day especially over parts of the central interior and
west sections of Puerto Rico and mainly on the west-end and downwind
of the U.S. Virgin Islands today and on Friday. The east-southeast winds
will become more southeasterly on Saturday resulting in slightly warmer
temperatures along the north coastal areas of Puerto Rico, as well as
a better chance for afternoon convection in and around the San Juan
metro and over parts of northwest Puerto Rico.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

Next week will start off with the upper-level low still affecting
the forecast area, somewhat increasing chances of shower activity
in combination with local effects for Sunday. A surface high
pressure over the central Atlantic and a surface low pressure over
the western Atlantic will promote a more east-southeasterly wind
flow through Sunday. This wind flow can promote warmer
temperatures, bring areas of moisture to the our region, and help
increase rain chances for western and northwestern Puerto Rico
during the afternoon hours. Conditions should improve to start the
workweek as the upper level low moves out of the region and a
ridge builds in the upper levels. As the surface low over the
western Atlantic also dissipates, leaving the surface high over
the central Atlantic, winds should become more easterly to start
the workweek and should continue to end the forecast period.
Models currently show drier mid- levels to start the workweek and
until the end of the long term period with precipitable water
values staying within normal values. Only right at the end of the
long-term period do models currently show an increase in moisture.
This lack of moisture can further inhibit any mayor convective
activity, leaving a limited variation of the seasonal pattern with
morning showers mainly over the east and afternoon showers mainly
over the interior and western Puerto Rico each day.


&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds across all terminals. Wdly SCT SHRA ovr
regional waters and en route btw islands. SCT lyrs nr FL025...FL040.
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA PSBL mainly across the central interior and western
sections of PR today btwn 23/16-23z. This will result in VCSH at
TJSJ/TJPS with SHRA/Isold TSRA psbl at TJBQ and TJMZ. Wnds will be
fm h ESE between 12-18 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations after 23/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...Light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected
through the end of the week. Seas of 4 feet or less are expected
across the local waters. A moderate risk of rip currents is
expected today for the northern beaches of Puerto Rico, Culebra,
eastern Vieques, eastern St. Croix and northwestern St. Thomas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 78 89 78 / 40 30 40 40
STT 88 78 88 78 / 20 30 50 50

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CycloforumsPR/status/1539989534628368386

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/BarbadosToday/status/1540484151249338369

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
438 PM AST Fri Jun 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...

Patchy moisture will continue to support shower activity over the
region. Support at the upper levels will decrease by Sunday,
however, and combine with decreasing moisture to lead to less shower
activity across the area. Still, a few showers are likely for
northwestern and interior Puerto Rico during the afternoons early
next week.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance over the
Atlantic that has a medium chance for formation over the next 5
days. This system is expected to pass by the area to the south
around midweek next week, with no direct impacts to the islands.
However, there is the potential for indirect impacts, both on marine
conditions and moisture over the area (and therefore shower
potential). Please monitor future forecasts for updates, including
future forecast discussions (AFDSJU) and Tropical Weather Outlooks
from the National Hurricane Center (TWOAT). But, again, no direct
impacts are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...

Showers began to develop over western and interior Puerto Rico
around midday/early afternoon, and are spreading into the northwest.
There are also a couple thunderstorms, currently located around
Hatillo, Arecibo, Utuado, and Lares. In the east, passing showers
gave way to streamer development early in the afternoon. These
showers will continue into the evening, with a few lingering showers
into the night. Patchy moisture continues to affect the region
through tomorrow, lingering into Sunday - and likely through most of
the day on Sunday in some western portions of the CWA.

Aloft, there is an upper-level trough that continues to meander
around the region. It is expected to pull up and away from the
region to the north late tomorrow into Sunday. As such, the
instability aloft will continue tomorrow, but decrease; by Sunday,
the support for convection aloft will have diminished. At the mid-
levels, erosion of the dry, stable air continues tomorrow. As such,
even as the support for convection from the upper-level trough
decreases, conditions in the mid-levels will become more favorable,
allowing for a similar level of activity tomorrow as today.

On Sunday, dry, more stable air will return over the region.
Combined with the decreasing support for convection at the upper-
levels, as the upper-level trough retreats, with some convergence
expected in its wake, a decrease in afternoon shower activity is
likely. Moisture is also expected to decrease, though lingering
patchy moisture in the west could help to sustain some activity in
northwestern and interior Puerto Rico yet again. So, on the whole,
some showers are expected, with the potential for isolated
thunderstorms, in northwestern and interior Puerto Rico, but
decreasing activity is anticipated. As such, the forecast has been
altered to reflect this likelihood, with PoPs and shower coverage
both decreased.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...

A surface high pressure ridge is expected to establish north of the
region. Winds are expected to shift more easterly bringing pulses of
moisture. By Monday, a weak tropical perturbation is forecast to
pass south of the local area, with the outer bands leaving some
showers over eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands
during the morning hours. Then throughout the afternoon hours an
increase rain chances could be expected with the daytime heating
and local effects. Due to the available moisture across the
eastern Caribbean, a similar weather pattern can be expected every
day until Thursday. By Thursday onwards, we are vigilant due to
the potential development of a tropical system located over the
eastern tropical Atlantic. The latest GFS20 model, keeps the
system south of the local area. However, as it moves westwards it
has chance to intensify to a tropical cyclone and associated
moisture could reach the islands by early Thursday. We will
monitor this wave to see how the potential effects develop. This
wetter weather pattern is, however, expected persist for at least
several days.

&&

.AVIATION...

Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail across all
terminals during the next 24 hours. However, SHRA/TSRA over
western PR may cause tempo MVFR conds at TJBQ thru 22z. Elsewhere,
streamers should cause mostly -RA/VCSH thru 22z. E-ESE winds at
10- 15 kt with sea breeze variations, bcmg light and variable
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...

Moderate to locally fresh winds of up to 15 to 20 knots are expected
to continue across the waters out of the east to southeast. This
will sustain some increasing choppy conditions. Seas of up to 5 feet
are expected. Additionally, a small northerly swell is forecast to
affect the exposed waters tomorrow; some confused seas are possible,
mostly in Atlantic waters.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents for most local beaches by
tomorrow. This will increase to a high risk of rip currents for
beaches along the northern coast of Puerto Rico by tomorrow night
for the western half of the island, and Sunday morning for the San
Juan metro and east.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 78 89 78 90 / 60 40 40 30
STT 79 88 79 89 / 40 40 40 30

[cycloneye]

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
534 AM AST Sat Jun 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A TUTT and associated low will linger across the region today
along with a slight increase in low level moisture supporting
afternoon convection. Afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms
should be focused over areas of the central interior and
northwest sections of Puerto Rico, including around parts of the
San Juan metropolitan area. Expect a light to moderate
southeasterly wind flow across the forecast area today, bringing
warmer temperatures along the north coastal areas of Puerto Rico.
Heat indices between 100 and 110 degrees are expected along
northern portions of Puerto Rico today.

The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance over
the Atlantic that has a medium chance for formation over the next
5 days. This system is expected to pass by the area to the south
around midweek next week, with no direct impacts to the islands.
However, there is potential for indirect impacts, both on marine
conditions and moisture over the area (and therefore shower
potential). Please monitor future forecasts for updates, including
future forecast discussions (AFDSJU) and Tropical Weather
Outlooks from the National Hurricane Center (TWOAT). But, again,
no direct impacts are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today through Monday...

Mid to upper level trough (TUTT) and associated low will linger
across the region today, then gradually fill/weaken and lift
northwards Sunday through Monday. Strong surface high pressure
anchored across the north central Atlantic and extending across the
region and a broad surface trough across the eastern Caribbean will
maintain a light to moderate southeasterly wind flow across the
forecast area today, then become more easterly and slightly increase
on Sunday through Monday as the high pressure ridge will build north
of the region. By then, a weak easterly perturbation is forecast to
cross the area bringing a quick surge of low level moisture followed
by a low concentration of suspended Saharan dust particulates.

Recent satellite imagery and doppler weather radar as well as
satellite derived precipitable water products, all suggest frequent
patches of low level moisture crossing the region with embedded
showers. Some showers were being enhanced by the upper trough as
they crossed parts of the islands. So far however the shower
activity has been fast moving and with little accumulations. For
the rest of today a slight increase in low level moisture is
expected. This will support afternoon convection over portions of
the islands. The afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms should
be focused over parts of the central interior and northwest sections
of Puerto Rico, including around parts of the San Juan metro.
Elsewhere mostly fair weather skies and isolated showers expected.
Some of the enhanced afternoon shower activity may lead to minor
urban and small stream flooding as well as ponding of water on roads
and poor drainage areas but in isolated spots. The prevailing
southeasterly winds will also bring warmer temperatures especially
along the north coastal areas of Puerto Rico. Increasing humidity
may also bring maximum heat indices to between 100 and 110 degrees
along the north portions of Puerto Rico today.

By Sunday, the upper trough is to fill and lift northwards thus
increasing stability aloft. In the meantime the surface high
pressure ridge is to reestablish north of the region resulting in a
more easterly winds and thus favor better transport of trade wind
moisture and the passage of a weak easterly perturbation Sunday
through early Monday. That said, typical passing showers are again
expected during the early morning hours each day followed by lesser
afternoon convection which should be focused mainly over parts of
the central interior and west sections of Puerto Rico. Fewer
streamer-like showers of short duration will be possible around the
San Juan metro and downwind of the U.S. Virgin Islands where mostly
isolated and fair weather skies are so far expected. A low
concentration of Saharan dust particulates is also expected during
that time, as a drier and stable airmass will spread across the
region.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...

With a surface high pressure over the central Atlantic, winds
should be generally easterly to start the forecast period. Tuesday
appears to be the driest day in the long term period as a pocket
of relatively drier airmass in terms of precipitable water values
enters the forecast area. Even so we can still expect some shower
activity in the morning hours mainly over the east and during the
afternoon hours mainly over the western sectors of Puerto Rico.
We are currently monitoring the potential development of a
tropical wave located over the the central tropical Atlantic.
Latest models continue to show the system passing south of the
local area. This system has a 60% chance to develop into a
tropical cyclone within the next five days. As the system moves
south of our region between Wednesday and Thursday, marine
conditions should start to deteriorate and rain bands associated
with this systems could reach the islands. We will continue to
monitor this tropical wave as it continues to move westward and
how potential effects develop as time progresses. A wetter weather
pattern is also expected to persist for the rest of the long term
period, with a lull on Friday as a relatively drier air mass in
terms of precipitable water enters the region. At the end of the
long term period another surge in moisture is currently showed by
the models as an airmass of precipitable water values of around 2
inches engulfs the forecast area on Saturday increasing rain
chances for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conds across all terminals. SCT SHRA ovr regional
waters and en route btw islands. Few SHRA ovr E interior of PR may
cause brief MVFR and Mtn top obscr due to SHRA/Low brief SHRA cld
lyrs til 25/13Z. SCT OCNL BKN lyrs nr FL025...FL050. SHRA/TSRA will
develop mainly across the interior and west sections of PR btwn
25/16-23z. This activity may affect TJSJ/TJMZ/TJBQ. LGT/VRB Wnds
will bcm fm E-SE around 15 kt with higher gusts and sea breeze
variations after 25/14Z.


&&

.MARINE...

Light to moderate east to southeast winds are expected to
continue. Seas of 6 feet or less are expected in the Atlantic
waters of Puerto Rico and the USVI and the coastal waters north of
Puerto Rico. Small craft operators should exercise caution in
these areas. Seas of 5 feet or less are expected across the rest
of the local waters.

A high risk of rip currents is currently in effect for the north-
central and northwestern beaches of Puerto Rico. The high risk of
rip currents should extend to all northern and eastern beaches by
tomorrow morning and should also extend to the beaches of St.
Croix tomorrow in the evening. These should all end by tomorrow
night.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SJU 90 81 91 81 / 40 40 30 30
STT 83 82 83 81 / 40 40 30 30