ATL: CHANTAL - Post-Tropical

[hurricanefloyd5]

where's the center

[Aric Dunn]

Saved RGB loop. A view from further out might be showing increased organization, but I'm never good at spotting it until after it happens.

[img]http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/5028/udc.gif[/ig]

there are multiple indications of a little better orginization. the low level banding on the se side and an expansion of convection on the norther side a long with recon telling us its organized. Also notice on the north side a thickening of the low level cloud deck typically a sign convection is going to build. inhibitors of course speed .. and still a little dry air and shear..

[Blown Away]

[floridasun78]

it look their all stift more west

[Aric Dunn]

euro doing a gfdl track..

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/ECMWF ... b&hour=096

however not important.. whats important is the euro keeps the weakness and fills in the large ridge just as before.. its not doing anything and can barely even find chantal.

[torrea40]

Saved RGB loop. A view from further out might be showing increased organization, but I'm never good at spotting it until after it happens.

[img]http://img571.imageshack.us/img571/5028/udc.gif[/ig]

there are multiple indications of a little better orginization. the low level banding on the se side and an expansion of convection on the norther side a long with recon telling us its organized. Also notice on the north side a thickening of the low level cloud deck typically a sign convection is going to build. inhibitors of course speed .. and still a little dry air and shear..

Today, maybe Cat 1...

[Downdraft]

Someone mentioned a bit earlier that .. the speed it goes past the mountains will still tear it up. I just have a hard time believing that seeing as it is booking it at almost 30 mph... not saying it wont have a effect on the cyclone, but as big of a effect as it would being a slow moving cyclone?

In 2001, a near cat 5 Iris tried crossing the mountains in Guatemala moving at about 25 mph. It dissipated in just 12 hours

Yes but the mountains and land area around Guatemala is totally different from that of Hispaniola. Comparing the two areas is totally useless, also the way a Cat 5 compared to the most a Cat 1 Chantal means that there will be a totally different effect of the storms and the angle and speed of the storm makes a huge difference.

I remember Hurricane Debby (2000) and everyone saying it was well on it's way to becoming a major. It ran into Hispaniola and never recovered. The eastern Caribbean has never been friendly to tropical systems. That being said even depressions in that area cause major flooding and terrible mudslides.

[galaxy401]

I wonder how Chantal will behave in the Eastern Carib: An area that has a habit for killing weak storms.

[northjaxpro]

As someone mentioned a few moments ago, the track Chantal is projected to take currently is reminiscent of David in '79. We shall see if it comes to fruition, provided Chantal can get by Hispaniola intact.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

18z model suite put the NHC on the right of the consensus. These latest runs don't take it over Hispaniola much at all, just the Tiburon Peninsula of Haiti, and then over eastern Cuba.

[adam0983]

That would keep the storm intact

[jlauderdal]

Models look to be in good agreement now.

no consistency, very difficult system for modeling....i expect to see more angst on this forum regarding models, if it even holds together

[SFLcane]

18z..

Another possible westward shift to nhc track later today.

[jimvb]

I wonder what the GFS says at 12Z about Chantal and the storm behind it. I think it says Chantal will break up and die somewhere near the Bahamas and that its follower will go fish but I can't tell for sure because the site is down ( mag .ncep.noaa.gov). Have others in this forum had a problem accessing GFS and NAM?

[BobHarlem]

Models look to be in good agreement now.

no consistency, very difficult system for modeling....i expect to see more angst on this forum regarding models, if it even holds together

No kidding, the small size of the storm, the relatively high pressures, and the ludicrous speed at which it's moving wnw have made model initializations a joke. I don't think I've seen it worse in recent memory.

[Weatherboy1]

Looking like a possible David track here? Hmmm. Models can't seem to figure out if this is going to hook to the west farther north (this afternoon's general consensus) or farther south (consensus earlier today). Definitely going to be watching every model cycle for next 24 hours here in South Florida!

[tolakram]

Oh Ohhhhhhhh Chantal on Rainbow Loop ........Poof..

Can you elaborate a little more? You mean the warming cloud tops?

[Decomdoug]

Looks like Chantal is about to escape the SAL.

Uploaded with ImageShack.com

[MortisFL]

It's still too early to predict where it's impacting. Depends on speed of Chantal. Also depends on where it hits DR. Looking more and more likely it will impact East Cuba as well. Be interesting to see how far west it gets before going northward...if there's anything left of it.

[torrea40]

Oh Ohhhhhhhh Chantal on Rainbow Loop ........Poof..

Can you elaborate a little more? You mean the warming cloud tops?

Exactly, the cloudssss.