ATL: MATTHEW - Models

[stormlover2013]

Oh my I can't believe u made this statement when we are 7 days out...we all know what kind of twist and turns these storms will throw at us.....gom all the way to east coast needs to pay attention

[OntarioEggplant]

Some people should review the Hermine thread where people kept saying it would recurve OTS when it most certainly did not.

[RL3AO]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

I can't think of a single reason at all either...

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781253726749204480

[Steve]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

Totally agree. The mid-Atlantic is in the bulls eye in my opinion.

More likely, but it's going to be a significant threat wherever it goes. I wouldn't write off Florida at all.

[toad strangler]

Oh my I can't believe u made this statement when we are 7 days out...we all know what kind of twist and turns these storms will throw at us.....gom all the way to east coast needs to pay attention

The pitfalls of buying into model guidance plus 5 days is sometimes too easy to resist.

It's pretty obvious that a turn to the N will happen but the great uncertainty lies in where that doorway winds up. Levi was so smooth explaining that this evening on Tidbits.

How else do you explain the huge spread of ensembles? It's a tough nut to crack right now.

[LarryWx]

Some people should review the Hermine thread where people kept saying it would recurve OTS when it most certainly did not.

Good point and OTS could easily not happen. OTOH, keep in mind that Hermine took much longer to develop than the model runs that recurved her OTS. In contrast, Matthew is already a strong tropical storm and we're about a month further into the season, when OTS is much more likely climowise from the current position of Matthew vs OTS climo based chances from a similar position then.

[SFLcane]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

This statement is.... come on.

[chris_fit]

Slightly off topic, but anyone know of a site where you can look up model verification per storm?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

Totally agree. The mid-Atlantic is in the bulls eye in my opinion.

More likely, but it's going to be a significant threat wherever it goes. I wouldn't write off Florida at all.

I can't believe this line of thinking. The GFS has Matthew 250-300 miles off the Florida coast at 144 hrs or 6 days. The average error at 5 days is 240 miles. That's the average error. At 6 days it would be quite a bit more. To even suggest that Matthew is still not a significant threat to Florida is just not accurate.

[northjaxpro]

I don't want to elaborate long here on the models thread, but when Matthew makes the turn poleward, just the potential size of this cyclone will have far reaching effects all up and down the U.S. East Coast seaboard the system relatively speaking. That is why is it imperative that we watch the models so very closely over the next week or so out.

It would not take much of a shift west to pull Matthew even closer to the U.S. East Coast for him to bring very significant impacts from the Florid Straits all the way up to New England.

Plus, although it seemingly at this time looks like the odds are decreasing about Matthew emerging into the GOM, you can not take that off the table either yet, Nearly half of EURO ensembles still had possibilities of the cyclone possibly going farther there.

So, again, we have lots still there and variables still left to contemplate and we may not get any full understanding on how this all will evolve for possibly up to 10 more days out. That is how complex this forecast is with the tropicl cyclone at this time.

[CDO62]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

I can't think of a single reason at all either...

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781253726749204480

That say's it all. Wow. I feel bad for the pro mets and NHC forecasters who have to get this forecast right.

[pcolaman]

I understand what the models are saying but not strong enough to feel the weakess to the north yet. Still kinda low and forcasted to dip to the wsw for some period of time. So not sold on the strong right turn. Imho

[SunnyThoughts]

Based on models, no reason at the moment to think Matt is a significant threat to Florida/GOM...

I can't think of a single reason at all either...

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/781253726749204480

That say's it all. Wow. I feel bad for the pro mets and NHC forecasters who have to get this forecast right.

Just like Wxman57 said earlier, from the western gulf to Nova Scotia. Will have a better idea over the weekend im sure. Need some G-4 flights which im sure are coming in the days ahead.

[jason1912]

Matthew starts turning a bit north on the GFDL

[AtlanticWind]

These posts saying Matthew is not a threat to a particular area that are 5 to 10 days out
really should stop. This really is misinformation as the hurricane center points out errors
In even 5 day forecasts are 240 miles.

[jason1912]

[DESTRUCTION5]

18z Navgem well west at 102 hrs

Watch it finish up here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=501

[WeatherEmperor]

18z Gfdl is the pink line far to the south of the other models.




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[TheStormExpert]

Why are folks trying to compare this to the situation we had with Hermine? The 500mb pattern featured stronger and more persistent ridging which is more typical of that time of year. We are now in the final days of September and heading into October which would favor a track the GFS has been showing for days and runs now. It still wouldn't hurt to keep an eye on things if you live along the immediate East Coast of Florida like I do but I sense the threat is decreasing.

[SouthFLTropics]

18z Navgem well west at 102 hrs

Watch it finish up here:

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=501

Well west of what...if anything it looks further north than the 12z NAvgem