ATL: SAM - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Down to 85kt on the 12z best track, but seeing how Sam’s eye is clearing out again, it’s possible the NHC sticks with 90kt or even bumps it up to 95kt.

[zzh]

WOW.

[WiscoWx02]

It appears Sam doesn't want to go as much as some of us here don't want him to. I wonder how long it can keep this up for though. Watch it try and pull a Faith from 1966, and still be a hurricane north of England.

[Sciencerocks]

[DioBrando]

ACE stats for Sam right as I'm typing this:
2021 SAM 49.5

It's over for Flora (49.4) and Edouard (49.3).

[WiscoWx02]

Save this one to the archive of most bizarre expected tropical cyclone and post tropical cyclone tracks, at least in my books anyways. Looks like Sam won't be able to decide who to snow bomb, Iceland or Greenland.

[DioBrando]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144955_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Save this one to the archive of most bizarre expected tropical cyclone and post tropical cyclone tracks, at least in my books anyways. Looks like Sam won't be able to decide who to snow bomb, Iceland or Greenland.

Reckon he'd grow in size and snowbombs both at the same time?

[DioBrando]

I'm looking through news sites and Twitter and there seems to be many comparisons between Sam and Edouard from 1996.
If any one of you were old enough to track the latter, what would you say are the main differences, if any?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Sam may be a major hurricane again!

[Teban54]

Sam may be a major hurricane again!

I know this won't happen, but imagine Sam making yet another push at a Cat 5.

[WiscoWx02]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144955_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Save this one to the archive of most bizarre expected tropical cyclone and post tropical cyclone tracks, at least in my books anyways. Looks like Sam won't be able to decide who to snow bomb, Iceland or Greenland.

Reckon he'd grow in size and snowbombs both at the same time?

Heck, Canada looks like it's gonna feel ole Sam once it goes extratropical too. This thing is gonna be a beast long after is losses tropical characteristics.

[DioBrando]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT18/refresh/AL182021_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/144955_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

Save this one to the archive of most bizarre expected tropical cyclone and post tropical cyclone tracks, at least in my books anyways. Looks like Sam won't be able to decide who to snow bomb, Iceland or Greenland.

Reckon he'd grow in size and snowbombs both at the same time?

Heck, Canada looks like it's gonna feel ole Sam once it goes extratropical too. This thing is gonna be a beast long after is losses tropical characteristics.

Iceland and Greenland too. Reckon winter has come early for them?

[DioBrando]

Sam may be a major hurricane again!

I know this won't happen, but imagine Sam making yet another push at a Cat 5.

Northernmost Cat 5 on record?

[WiscoWx02]

Sam may be a major hurricane again!

I know this won't happen, but imagine Sam making yet another push at a Cat 5.

That would be the ultimate 2021 troll
Seriously though, what a performance Sam is still displaying. Eye clearing out, deep convection around the entire eye...crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9SQ3KtYbG0&t=476s
This is a video of Dr. Cowan discussing his research on how trough interaction aids tropical cyclones in some cases and I have heard a lot of chatter that trough interaction is responsible for Sam being able to maintain it's strength and structure as it has up to this point. Would 10/10 check this out. A lot of it went over my head but hey, extremely educational nonetheless and I'm sure a lot of people here would think so too.

[DioBrando]

Sam may be a major hurricane again!

I know this won't happen, but imagine Sam making yet another push at a Cat 5.

That would be the ultimate 2021 troll
Seriously though, what a performance Sam is still displaying. Eye clearing out, deep convection around the entire eye...crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9SQ3KtYbG0&t=476s
This is a video of Dr. Cowan discussing his research on how trough interaction aids tropical cyclones in some cases and I have heard a lot of chatter that trough interaction is responsible for Sam being able to maintain it's strength and structure as it has up to this point. Would 10/10 check this out. A lot of it went over my head but hey, extremely educational nonetheless and I'm sure a lot of people here would think so too.

Flashback to Humberto in 2019

[WiscoWx02]

I know this won't happen, but imagine Sam making yet another push at a Cat 5.

That would be the ultimate 2021 troll
Seriously though, what a performance Sam is still displaying. Eye clearing out, deep convection around the entire eye...crazy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p9SQ3KtYbG0&t=476s
This is a video of Dr. Cowan discussing his research on how trough interaction aids tropical cyclones in some cases and I have heard a lot of chatter that trough interaction is responsible for Sam being able to maintain it's strength and structure as it has up to this point. Would 10/10 check this out. A lot of it went over my head but hey, extremely educational nonetheless and I'm sure a lot of people here would think so too.

Flashback to Humberto in 2019

Looking back at Humberto from 2019...definitely some trough interaction there. Levi was saying that the right entrance region of the jet stream/streak enables more outflow which strengthens the tropical cyclone and counteracts the negative impacts of shear that typically increases as you get closer to the trough. Zeta from last year is a beautiful example of this and is why it was able to reach cat 3 intensity over water that was too cold, increasing shear and fast forward motion.

[galaxy401]

Amazing how long he has been maintaining that Major Hurricane appearance. Want him to get as much ACE as possible.

[SconnieCane]

I'm looking through news sites and Twitter and there seems to be many comparisons between Sam and Edouard from 1996.
If any one of you were old enough to track the latter, what would you say are the main differences, if any?

Well for one I think with a combination of tracking closer and much greater uncertainty beyond Day 3 or so due to less model skill at the time, Edouard was considered a potential threat to the NE CONUS for much longer. IIRC TWC even sent crews to places like Cape Cod and such.

[Sciencerocks]

[DioBrando]

I'm looking through news sites and Twitter and there seems to be many comparisons between Sam and Edouard from 1996.
If any one of you were old enough to track the latter, what would you say are the main differences, if any?

Well for one I think with a combination of tracking closer and much greater uncertainty beyond Day 3 or so due to less model skill at the time, Edouard was considered a potential threat to the NE CONUS for much longer. IIRC TWC even sent crews to places like Cape Cod and such.

How did they fare at the end?
With more advanced technologies in place to track storms, how would Edouard be perceived if a storm exactly like that were to exist in 2021? Would the reactions be just like Sam (i.e. confined to WX social media and solely studied for research purposes) or something else?