Hurricane Wilma - Cat. 5

[ericinmia]

If this is a CAT4 hitting florida, moving quickly... there is a good chance that sections of the east coast will get cat2 winds with moments of cat3.

Obviously this could be less... but i would prepare for that if i were you.
-Eric

[Derek Ortt]

always prepare for 1 full cat above what is expected

[rainbird]

687
URNT12 KNHC 202210Z
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 20/2139Z
B. 18 DEG 51 MIN N
85 DEG 45 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2430 MA
D. 110
E. 220 DEG 13 NM
F. 295 DEG 127 KT
G. 207 DEG 15 NM
H. 923 MB
I. 13 C/ 3052 M
J. 22 C/ 3062 M
K. 8 C/ NA
L. OPEN SOUTHWEST
M. C 35
N. 12345/7
O. 1/1 NM
P. NOAA2 1124A WILMA OB 05
MAX FL WIND 145 KT N QUAD 1840Z
SFC WIND FROM DROPSONDE


She is weakening. 923MB!

Can you clarify a point - When Hurricane Wilma becomes a Cat 5 again - will her pressure continue to drop??? If so. will it go as low as she went a day or two ago - (days are beginning to run together on this computer/StormK2 site) - 882???? Thanks -

[joseph01]

always prepare for 1 full cat above what is expected

A simple, yet excellent bit of advice.

[Thunder44]

You know I'm not sure if I would totally buy into this "stalling" idea by the models. They tried to do this with Rita over Texas and Louisana and with Stan in the BOC only for them too keep moving right along. Also looking at the direction it's going now, it just may wind up grazing the the NE tip of the Yucatan, without ever making landfall.

[storms in NC]

Derek you think it will stall? I don't think it will. It may move slow but not stall. I don't think the eye will go over land. Which will make no matter cause they will still get the west side of the storm. So it will still be bad for the Yucatan.

[tampaflwx]

You know I'm not sure if I would totally buy into this "stalling" idea by the models. They tried to do this with Rita over Texas and Louisana and with Stan in the BOC only for them too keep moving right along. Also looking at the direction it's going now, it just may wind up grazing the the NE tip of the Yucatan, without ever making landfall.

Fully agree with your sentiments. Especially considering that some of the models are suggesting a more northern landfal

[calculatedrisk]

You know I'm not sure if I would totally buy into this "stalling" idea by the models. They tried to do this with Rita over Texas and Louisana and with Stan in the BOC only for them too keep moving right along. Also looking at the direction it's going now, it just may wind up grazing the the NE tip of the Yucatan, without ever making landfall.

Amateur Alert - All cautions apply.

The most recent run of the GFDL forecast slightly less stall than the previous run and I suspect the move will continue in that direction (less stall).

I will bet the eye isn't over the Yucatan for 3 days or even the 2+ days shown by the GFDL model.

[truballer#1]

I really dont think its going to stall or make landfall, I think a little graze and thats it

[seaswing]

just want to remind everyone of the remarkably similar path taken by the 1921 category 3 storm that hit tampa bay, the last direct hurricane experienced by tampa bay still to this day. also notice the date.

We could also show Isabell, which formed in the same area, and look where that went. In fact, we could go back in history and pick a variety of tracks that started where this one did and went everywhere else but Tampa. What about Mitch? What makes the 1921 storm so relevant except that it might support your own personal theory?

I don't think these historical track variations serve any purpose but to unduly frighten people unless we're willing to go back and document if the myriad of other complex conditions that affected the 1921 storm were exactly the same conditions that exist today with this one. And I seriously doubt they were.

Perhaps it was just an additional post on a tropical weather enthusiasts board.

Perhaps it could be a learning experience for all if there was a valid rationale to accompany the post.

When that becomes neccessary, this place is doomed. At least, the fun in being here, anyway.

Since when is crying FIRE in a crowded theater fun? Unless you get off on that kind of nonsense.

Sometimes you are just down-right hostile! why don't you lighten up already?

[Brent]

I said "this far south" because there was some discussion earlier about it not making it down far enough to effect the storm.

I'm positive it will(if it follows the projected track)...

[Damar91]

Thanks!

[Foladar0]

hey profesional met do you advise me to put up my shuters here in miami?what conditions do you expect ?are we gonna get hurricane force winds here on the east coast?

I live in miami to and official forecast is 50mph winds, but i would WAIT, the models will change, the storm will change, we have no clue whats gonna happen!

I would think we'd get a bit more than 50mph winds, but just my opinion.

[WindRunner]

never mind . . .

[WindRunner]

Image for new GFDL, with rest updating in 15-30mins.

[StormFury]

It makes landfall in SW Florida though.

[Toro694]

Is the general feeling that this thing will progress further north of current track or will it stay south of Ft. Myers area?

[Damar91]

Anyone have an idea when watches might be placed for Florida? Isn't it usually 72 hours out? Or will they wait until the NE turn occurs?

[Foladar0]

Is the general feeling that this thing will progress further north of current track or will it stay south of Ft. Myers area?

I think the general feeling is .. nobody really knows, and all bets are off. Just be prepared.

[skysummit]

Anyone have an idea when watches might be placed for Florida? Isn't it usually 72 hours out? Or will they wait until the NE turn occurs?

I heard tomorrow.