Texas Winter 2012-2013

[Portastorm]

I see the strato depicted above at 144 hours, what does this mean though since the 240 hour depicts the cold area gone and replaced by warmth in the stratosphere? Does it mean whatever cooling we get from the warming event in the pole region quickly goes away?
I'm guessing here.......

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/s ... h_f240.gif

You're reading this in an opposite. Basically whatever you see in the stratosphere, just the opposite is beneath it. So ... if you see a warm stratosphere develop over your area, then it has displaced cold air in the stratosphere down to the surface.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What kind of temps are we talking here for Houston? Some teens? And wind chills in the single digits????

Hard to say this far out, but the '62 blast had -15 readings in the Panhandle and 10 degree readings in the lower RGV.

'89 was similar but prolonged.

1951 would be another analog year.

[Portastorm]

Y'all are making my day!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 9 8 9 ! ! ! ! ! ! !

No dude ... we don't want that again. Even the Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will not enjoy a true McFarland Signature, Arctic outbreak. Those create widespread misery for most Texans.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Y'all are making my day!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 9 8 9 ! ! ! ! ! ! !

No dude ... we don't want that again. Even the Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will not enjoy a true McFarland Signature, Arctic outbreak. Those create widespread misery for most Texans.

A True blue McFarland signature can spread negative readings as far south as Central Texas given the setup. I remember it well in Longview, TX in 1989.

The freezes in the 80s killed wildlife in the Gulf because the freeze was so deep that shallow water fish were dying. It destroyed the crops.

[gboudx]

Y'all are making my day!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 9 8 9 ! ! ! ! ! ! !

No dude ... we don't want that again. Even the Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will not enjoy a true McFarland Signature, Arctic outbreak. Those create widespread misery for most Texans.

Yeah count me out on that too. There's a reason I choose to live in the South. This morning I went on a 9.5 bike ride and thought I had dressed appropriately. Boy was I wrong. My bike computer showed a steady 34 degrees and after about 30 mins I guess I started sweating because it was even more painful. My fingers(gloved) and toes finally have feeling again.

[Comanche]

So when is this potential McFarland setting up to have arctic air drain into the states? jan 15th? 20th? before?

[JackCruz]

What kind of temps are we talking here for Houston? Some teens? And wind chills in the single digits????

Hard to say this far out, but the '62 blast had -15 readings in the Panhandle and 10 degree readings in the lower RGV.

'89 was similar but prolonged.

1951 would be another analog year.

Beautiful! I would love some teens...even just for one day/night.

[Portastorm]

Y'all are making my day!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 9 8 9 ! ! ! ! ! ! !

No dude ... we don't want that again. Even the Grey Goose-swilling mets at the PWC will not enjoy a true McFarland Signature, Arctic outbreak. Those create widespread misery for most Texans.

Yeah count me out on that too. There's a reason I choose to live in the South. This morning I went on a 9.5 bike ride and thought I had dressed appropriately. Boy was I wrong. My bike computer showed a steady 34 degrees and after about 30 mins I guess I started sweating because it was even more painful. My fingers(gloved) and toes finally have feeling again.

I was here in Austin in 1989. I remember when we bottomed out a -4 degrees. I also remember all of the busted pipes, displaced apartment dwellers, home owners with busted pipes, dead trees and vegetation, etc. etc. It was really a dreadful experience.

[TexasF6]

Perhaps my happy memories of that icy cold and winter fun cloud my judgement...but a McFarland sounds epically bad....but hey, people haven't seen it in years, many will not believe it will occur because this is "Texas." They just don't know their history...Especially the newbies to our state.....

[Portastorm]

Perhaps my happy memories of that icy cold and winter fun cloud my judgement...but a McFarland sounds epically bad....but hey, people haven't seen it in years, many will not believe it will occur because this is "Texas." They just don't know their history...Especially the newbies to our state.....

You bring up a good point. There are plenty of newbie Texans who have never experienced such a thing before in this state. If we do end up with a true McFarland, they'll be stunned by what happens. It'll be up to us weather nerds to alert everyone in our social circles of family/friends/co-workers/fellow students about how to prepare.

However, we do see this kind of thing surface from time to time in the models and it doesn't end up happening. For now, it's just something to watch with interest.

[Ntxw]

It's no guaranty we will see it. Just something to stir that the odds are growing higher than a typical winter season. The persistent chill we have seen since the change from the solstice and very negative AO are just that, hints . The record new year snow cover (data has been kept since 1996) is just another hint. We'll see, still got a potential wintry event for west/central Texas.

Any press conferences Portastorm?

[ThunderSleetDreams]

What kind of temps are we talking here for Houston? Some teens? And wind chills in the single digits????

Hard to say this far out, but the '62 blast had -15 readings in the Panhandle and 10 degree readings in the lower RGV.

'89 was similar but prolonged.

1951 would be another analog year.

Beautiful! I would love some teens...even just for one day/night.

we've had teens recently in Houston, and certainly in the northern half of Texas. 2010-2011 Winter saw teens at my house in Conroe. I remember 2-3 straight mornings of 18-19 degree readings.

A true blue outbreak can send readings down into the low teens, if not lower. It's been a while since DFW and NE Texas has seen single digit readings if I'm not mistaken.

[Tireman4]

Was 1983 a McFarland Block? I am not sure...It got down to 13 in Houston......

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

We had busted pipes down in the RGV and what citrus and palm trees didn't get whacked or managed to survive the 1983 Christmas freeze certainly took a hit in 1989. I recall an old fruit packing facility caught on fire in my home town on the first evening of the 1989 event and drive by it the next morning and it looked like a scene you would see out of the Midwest or Northeast after a fire in cold weather. Ice everywhere...

A 1989, 83, 62 or (fill in the year event) would make Texas a tinderbox (as if we are not there already) for spring and summer fires assuming we don't get sufficient rains to green up the area in the spring.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Now they get worried

[gboudx]

Was 1983 a McFarland Block? I am not sure...It got down to 13 in Houston......

I grew up in the NOLA area and remember the 83 cold snap well. It was brutal down there with lots of busted pipes and loss of orange groves. The entire side of our house was paved and we sprayed it with water to freeze it. It stayed frozen for about a week.

[Comanche]

I went fishing at the Bacliff spillway (Cooling water discharge from a power plant), in that 1983 outbreak, at night. I was 12 at the time and didn't pay too much attention to weather, all I remember was looking down off the pier at the rocks and seeing ice formed along them. So I looked over the barrier into Galveston bay and saw it frozen, not ice pieces but a massive sheet! It was about 75 yards out, a sheet of ice on the bay. That was a cold period here.

[Tireman4]

I was 18 at the time. Very weird Christmas that year. All of our pipes burst ( they were exposed) and no water for at least a week. The 1989 snap, I was in North Carolina.

[CaptinCrunch]

The 4 coldest readings in DFW History since records started being kept in 1899

1. Feb 12, 1899 -8 degrees, clear skies, 1" of snow cover
2. Jan 31, 1949 -2 degrees, dence fog, 3" of snow cover
3. Jan 18, 1930 -1 degrees, clear, none
4. Dec 23, 1989 -1 degrees, clear, none

[HockeyTx82]

Top 4 coldest reading in DFW History since records started being kept in 1899

1. Feb 12, 1899 -8 degrees, clear skies, 1" of snow cover
2. Jan 31, 1949 -2 degrees, dence fog, 3" of snow cover
3. Jan 18, 1930 -1 degrees, clear, none
4. Dec 23, 1989 -1 degrees, clear, none

Ahh yes, I remember the freeze of 1899 like it was just the other day.