ATL: HERMINE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Tropics Guy]

Looks like wind shear is getting the best of 99L, according to the shear maps though it should be in better conditions (less shear) possibly by tonight. Also by tomorrow the SST's will be even warmer over the projected path.
TG

[TheStormExpert]

The upper low off the Southeast is not specific to the GFS. The Euro has the same feature.

What's your thoughts on the future of 99L?

[AutoPenalti]

 https://twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/768850478058893312

Someone mentioned there's another one forming inside that convection.

[MGC]

Shear and dry air are eating 99L's lunch. Unless some convection starts firing over that naked swirl I think 99L will slowly spin down. Lets hope that is the case and there is no hurricane in the GOM next week. Looks like dry air is also downsloping into the circulation from Hispaniola. 99L has too many negative factors to do much right now....MGC

[SouthFLTropics]

 https://twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/768850478058893312

Someone mentioned there's another one forming inside that convection.

I looked and I haven't been able to find any other circulation other than the one pointed out. There just isn't enough convection to sustain it. That's a good thing. If there was I have a feeling this would blow up because 99L is one vigorous circulation.

[BigB0882]

HPC QPF depicts widespread 5"+ from south florida up to the big bend with an 8.7" jackpot over charlotte harbor. This is a useful product to keep an eye on for clues on what may happen.

Aren't they using the model runs to come up with the QPF? So it isn't a clue to anything other than what the latest model run is showing.

[deltadog03]

Ok, I think I see some low level swirl on the bottom right circle...What do y'all think? I know your going to have to loop it another the sat sight, but tell me what y'all think. I don't think the first vortex is gonna do squat.

[AdamFirst]

Does anyone have a link to the NASA rapid scan satellite?

[deltadog03]

 https://twitter.com/IrishEagle/status/768850478058893312

Check out my post on the next page..I think I see another swirl, and would prob. be more promising.

[AutoPenalti]

Ok, I think I see some low level swirl on the bottom right circle...What do y'all think? I know your going to have to loop it another the sat sight, but tell me what y'all think. I don't think the first vortex is gonna do squat.

If that's a new center forming, it won't be as vigorous. So I don't expect RI.

[gboudx]

Check out my post on the next page..I think I see another swirl, and would prob. be more promising.

Promising? In what way? I hope to keep it from forming is what you mean.

[SoupBone]

Ok, I think I see some low level swirl on the bottom right circle...What do y'all think? I know your going to have to loop it another the sat sight, but tell me what y'all think. I don't think the first vortex is gonna do squat.

If that's a new center forming, it won't be as vigorous. So I don't expect RI.

Better yet, if that's a new center. it's quite a ways away from the current one. That would also impact its near term tracking for sure.

[Hurricaneman]

Check out my post on the next page..I think I see another swirl, and would prob. be more promising.

Promising? In what way? I hope to keep it from forming is what you mean.

Im thinking it means better chances for development

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service

[abajan]

I have forgotten what times of day DMAX and DMIN occur. Can anyone help me out?

DMIN is shortly after sunset, DMAX is shortly after sunrise.

I always thought DMIN was shortly before sunset, and DMAX was shortly before sunrise. But you could be right. I think it also depends on the latitude of the system.

[SeGaBob]

Any guesses for the 2pm Two? I'm going with same chances. I know what some will say...

[Airboy]

The naked swirl look pretty desent, my guess is that it will fire up and get going soon.

[psyclone]

My gut instinct (which admittedly has checkered record) is sensing an overall lower potential of development. things are just not working here. that does not mean I'm checking out/writing this off...I just don't think the high likelihood of development exists anymore. what I'm really watching for is whether or not the NHC begins to lower those 5 day chances in little 10% increments. that will be telling. in the meantime I'm still watching because I'm a weather fanatic and it's the heart of hurricane season.

[NDG]

Ok, I think I see some low level swirl on the bottom right circle...What do y'all think? I know your going to have to loop it another the sat sight, but tell me what y'all think. I don't think the first vortex is gonna do squat.

Looks to me to be part of the MLC left behind, nothing but southerly winds underneath it.

[MississippiWx]

My gut instinct (which admittedly has checkered record) is sensing an overall lower potential of development. things are just not working here. that does not mean I'm checking out/writing this off...I just don't think the high likelihood of development exists anymore. what I'm really watching for is whether or not the NHC begins to lower those 5 day chances in little 10% increments. that will be telling. in the meantime I'm still watching because I'm a weather fanatic and it's the heart of hurricane season.

It's easy to write this off because of it being convection-less. However, this is also forecast by the models that do develop 99L. I'm able to see the Euro and all of its details because I'm a paid member of Weatherbell. It keeps 99L with very few thunderstorms for 2 more days before developing it. The HWRF is the same way. Most models still develop it, but they just vary on strength, obviously. Very frustrating system to track.

[northjaxpro]

My gut instinct (which admittedly has checkered record) is sensing an overall lower potential of development. things are just not working here. that does not mean I'm checking out/writing this off...I just don't think the high likelihood of development exists anymore. what I'm really watching for is whether or not the NHC begins to lower those 5 day chances in little 10% increments. that will be telling. in the meantime I'm still watching because I'm a weather fanatic and it's the heart of hurricane season.

Well, I am inclined to begin thinking like you are here psyclone. Given the present environment, NHC may go down slightly in their percentages like you are suggesting, but nothing drastically. Not quite yet. However, as I have stated already, I am not yet ready to throw in the towel. But, imo the next 24-36 hours will tell the story either way with this system as I explained on the previous page.