ATL: HERMINE - Models

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Storm is very Katrina-esque.

[jason1912]

It re-develops it off the Mid Atlantic coast too.

[cajungal]

Too close for comfort. Wouldn't take much for this to shift west into Louisiana. Esp if it get pushed further south to the keys. Betsy, Andrew and Katrina was like the Florida-Louisiana connection.

[StormHunter72]

Looks like a mess at this point.

[Hammy]

This is a bit worrying, because didn't the Euro pretty much nail Joaquin a week or so out, and pretty consistently, while we all expected it to go into Delmarva?

[Mouton]

Weatherbell: 937mb just south of Mobile (186h)

Well, this AM he was tooting for Charleston....average them and get to Jacksonville? I hope not given my location here.

Intensity at land fall way to early to call here....too many variables. While the direction west and near the straits seems to be consoladating in the models, it is not 100% certain.

BTW, forward speed has been dropping apparently of late too. Usually that signals it will strengthen but also change direction. I have been saying the ridge is pretty much stable around 30N which is why I had projected a path near south Fla through day 6. Again we hope it is a low caliber wind and rain event. Beyond that, last thing the upper gom needs is more rain coupled with a 940mb storm, it would be devastating.

IMO, late august early sept storms tend to be direct shot storms, until they develop beyond cat 1 as there are no troughs cutting into the tropics. So, this storm could as well go across the gom if it says weak or if it develops rapidly it could go N. Recall how the blob just sat over La. for days after following the coast. Time will tell but I sense it will not be for 48 hours when the solution is evident.

As usual, I am not a pro met....my ramblings are my opinion and not based on more than my visual observations with no formal education nor work experience in the field. Be guided by the info put out by the NHC and your local professional forecasters.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Also need to remember that Katrina was progged to make landfall in the panhandle before zero-ing in on NOLA. I went through Katrina in Davie. Hoping that it develops late and struggles going into Florida.

[Ntxw]

This is a bit worrying, because didn't the Euro pretty much nail Joaquin a week or so out, and pretty consistently, while we all expected it to go into Delmarva?

I'm concerned that the euro is locked into developing such an intense system in the gulf. While it could be wrong and the GFS be completely right, you can get antsy going against the Euro when it decides to form something and sticks to it regardless of track. Though nothing to panic about until we get within 100 hours really. One thing to note there is no wall of shear in the NGOM to protect the coast like the past couple of seasons, it's a matter if the system can get it's act together.

[rickybobby]

I was watching the weather channel and they said it could stall in the Bahamas and everyone from Mexico to North Carolina should be watching this.

[Hammy]

This is a bit worrying, because didn't the Euro pretty much nail Joaquin a week or so out, and pretty consistently, while we all expected it to go into Delmarva?

I'm concerned that the euro is locked into developing such an intense system in the gulf. While it could be wrong and the GFS be completely right, you can get antsy going against the Euro when it decides to form something and sticks to it regardless of track. Though nothing to panic about until we get within 100 hours really.

Not panic mode yet, but in addition to the Gulf, this could produce a large tornado outbreak inland.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is a bit worrying, because didn't the Euro pretty much nail Joaquin a week or so out, and pretty consistently, while we all expected it to go into Delmarva?

I'm concerned that the euro is locked into developing such an intense system in the gulf. While it could be wrong and the GFS be completely right, you can get antsy going against the Euro when it decides to form something and sticks to it regardless of track. Though nothing to panic about until we get within 100 hours really.

Not panic mode yet, but in addition to the Gulf, this could produce a large tornado outbreak inland.

Yes, I remember what a job Opal did on the Atlanta Metro.

[jlauderdal]

I was watching the weather channel and they said it could stall in the Bahamas and everyone from Mexico to North Carolina should be watching this.

that forecast will verify

[Steve]

FWIW, JMA has an intensifying tropical system a couple hundred miles offshore of about Jupiter/Port St. Lucie. It ends there at 192. Plausible for sure, but likely? Who knows.

[Javlin]

final landfall between 935mb and 940mb

In your estimation, ballpark figure, what would the windspeed be at that point?

That's a Cat 4 storm.

Steve the JMA is holding strong onto that ridge and one could see and Erin type scenario?

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, is this the thread for model output or is this the general discussion thread for everything from weather history to vendors selling peanuts on the streets thread????

[tolakram]

We don't want to stifle discussion but it needs to be moved over to the discussion thread. A year from now we will have to wade through all these posts to see the model output, which defeats the primary intent of the model threads.

[RL3AO]

Wow, is this the thread for model output or is this the general discussion thread for everything from weather history to vendors selling peanuts on the streets thread????

We've been trying.

Everyone, can we please avoid the comments about a model run such as "120 hr north of Puerto rico" without posting said model image? If you are not posting an image, then your comment or question should be substantive and not just a few words after every new image.

[Dean4Storms]

Wow, is this the thread for model output or is this the general discussion thread for everything from weather history to vendors selling peanuts on the streets thread????

We've been trying.

Everyone, can we please avoid the comments about a model run such as "120 hr north of Puerto rico" without posting said model image? If you are not posting an image, then your comment or question should be substantive and not just a few words after every new image.

From work on my smartphone had to go thru numerous threads of nothing to see any model output. That gets old. Thanks for trying guys, I know everybody is excited!

[gatorcane]

[deltadog03]

Also, remember we are in the time frame where the GFS loves to loose things... Day 4-7 timeframe...my guess is the euro will keep showing something and the GFS will slowly come around.