ATL: MATTHEW - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[miamijaaz]

Really concerned for Jamaica. Was in Port Falmouth on a cruise this summer, and I can't believe this monster storm is heading that way.

[centuryv58]

NHC snippet:

The NHC forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model
consensus at days 4 and 5.

The West edge of the cone could not get any closer to SE Florida without SE Florida being in the cone. I wonder if being a little east was so that SE Florida was not included intentionally?

See above. They mentioned FL in the last line.

[Kazmit]

Why would the NHC show this weakening after 12 hours when in roughly 36 hours the environment is supposed to be even more conducive to strengthening?

They mention that an ERC could occur, but it's mainly because they are too conservative, and the reason Alyono stated above.

[La Sirena]

I hate to be the person who asked this....but, I had to go out for a few hours. WTH is going on? I'm trying to sort it out lol. I know it got to Cat 4. I left the house at 2:30 and it was a Cat 3. Did the models take a different route? The Euro had just come out before I left and it looked to be East of Florida still.

Any help will be greatly appreciated!

[miamijaaz]

NHC snippet:

The NHC forecast is near the middle of the
guidance envelope and is a little to the east of the multi-model
consensus at days 4 and 5.

The West edge of the cone could not get any closer to SE Florida without SE Florida being in the cone. I wonder if being a little east was so that SE Florida was not included intentionally?

I have no doubt. The NHC is not going to put South Florida in the cone of a 140mph storm until they are confident on the long term track, and it doesn't sound they are.

[CFLHurricane]

"Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida." says NHC at 5pm.

Not to mention the advisory mentions the upper low that's supposed to carry Matt away is supposed to dissipate by Sunday. Some serious cognitive dissonance at the NHC right now.

We will just have to watch and wait.

[brunota2003]

It looks like we'll see another one of these "Ocean Winds Research" flights (what NOAA43 is currently doing) tomorrow afternoon!

[terstorm1012]

I hate to be the person who asked this....but, I had to go out for a few hours. WTH is going on? I'm trying to sort it out lol. I know it got to Cat 4. I left the house at 2:30 and it was a Cat 3. Did the models take a different route? The Euro had just come out before I left and it looked to be East of Florida still.

Any help will be greatly appreciated!

some models have underestimated the intensity. The ocean and atmosphere on the other hand are quite conducive for rapid intensification. Expect it to get stronger.

[psyclone]

New track slight bend to the west

looks straight north to me.

Straight north is left of the previous forecast which had the storm on a slightly east of due north heading at a slightly more easterly longitude. It's a subtle change but if it keeps tilting that way over subsequent forecast cycles it could move the needle a bunch. Right now it doesn't mean a lot. the question is...is this the beginning of a trend. time will tell.

[AutoPenalti]

"Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida." says NHC at 5pm.

It's been like that for 24 hours.

[TimeZone]

What's up with the intensity forecast? I thought that the environment was supposed to improve as this Storm made it's way closer to Jamaica/Cuba? I'm guessing this has changed...shear expected to be higher than first thought?

[mcheer23]

A little bit of Florida is actually included.

[Yellow Evan]

T5.5 still.

[La Sirena]

I hate to be the person who asked this....but, I had to go out for a few hours. WTH is going on? I'm trying to sort it out lol. I know it got to Cat 4. I left the house at 2:30 and it was a Cat 3. Did the models take a different route? The Euro had just come out before I left and it looked to be East of Florida still.

Any help will be greatly appreciated!

some models have underestimated the intensity. The ocean and atmosphere on the other hand are quite conducive for rapid intensification. Expect it to get stronger.

Thx so much! Why am I seeing more discussion of Key West? I can't believe I'm having such a hard time catching up lol.

[KWT]

Really concerned for Jamaica. Was in Port Falmouth on a cruise this summer, and I can't believe this monster storm is heading that way.

I have to admit, I am as well. Even if it came in as a 95-105kts hurricane like originally forecasted by some of the models, that would be bad...but if it was to come in as a 4/5...don't really want to think about that. Probably strongest hurricane there since Ivan possibly?

[CFLHurricane]

"Therefore, it is too soon to rule out possible hurricane impacts from Matthew in Florida." says NHC at 5pm.

It's been like that for 24 hours.

One of my coworkers observed that the NHC has no problem putting FL into the cone when it's storm we shouldn't be concerned about, but totally avoids it until the last second for the storms we do

[MaineWeatherNut]

What's up with the intensity forecast? I thought that the environment was supposed to improve as this Storm made it's way closer to Jamaica/Cuba? I'm guessing this has changed...shear expected to be higher than first thought?

Nope nothing has changed except the models don't have a handle on the storms intensity. The models show it weakening for some strange reason and the NHC is sticking to the models in spite of the improving Environment.

[Hammy]

Why would the NHC show this weakening after 12 hours when in roughly 36 hours the environment is supposed to be even more conducive to strengthening?

Because DSHP and LGEM say so

Weren't these the same models that were forecasting something like 35kt shear over the system by now a few days ago?

[Macrocane]

Wow

The entire season the NHC has been predicting storms to intensify and most of them have not and now they predicted Matthew to only reach cat 2 in the first advisories and has become a monster.

Weird season, I know intensity has always been difficult to forecast but something has made it even more difficult this year.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Wow

The entire season the NHC has been predicting storms to intensify and most of them have not and now they predicted Matthew to only reach cat 2 in the first advisories and has become a monster.

Weird season, I know intensity has always been difficult to forecast but something has made it even more difficult this year.

Could be worse. Remember Joaquin's first advisory? NHC showed it only peaking at 30 knots and dissipating by 96 hours.