ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cat5James]

12Z GFS and CMC both showing a weaker/tilted ridge due to interaction with Marco... very interesting

[eastcoastFL]

saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/GQpSBNa.gif

That’s starting to look like a real storm on radar. I don’t think this one is going to die out

[Cat5James]

MLC certainly appears to be moving NW on radar

[SFLcane]

ascat just showed the LLC is south PR.

[eastcoastFL]

So the 12z HMON initialized with the low on the NW tip or PR



Then dives south west.. can anyone explain that?

[eastcoastFL]

ascat just showed the LLC is south PR.

Do you have an image you could post?

[FLpanhandle91]

[blp]

ascat just showed the LLC is south PR.

Yes!, I am wrong as usual and the nhc is correct as usual lol. In that location this llc is not going to last because it slam right into DR. The MLC is going swing around and take over.

[HurricaneFrances04]

ASCAT seems to verify NHC location

[eastcoastFL]

https://i.ibb.co/J3GPT59/WMBds20.png

So at the 6hr Mark HMON has the low right where this ascat pass shows it. But oddly it initialized north east of there.

[Cat5James]

MLC is going for the mona passage

[Ivanhater]

Please keep model runs in the models thread

[stormhunter7]

I believe i disagree with the ASCAT pass. I can clearly see what it caught was a mid level center before high clouds obscured it. The surface winds were not moving in the right direction to be a surface feature. The surface low appears is on the NW side of PR. The mid-level is to the southeast of PR.

[eastcoastFL]

Please keep model runs in the models thread

My bad. I just thought it was relevant to where the circulation is or is being forecast to be.

[USTropics]

PR radar for link for Laura:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

[eastcoastFL]

PR radar for link for Laura:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

So are there multiple competing rotations? To the east of the ascat center there is a pretty strong rotation on radar

[St0rmTh0r]

saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/GQpSBNa.gif

That’s starting to look like a real storm on radar. I don’t think this one is going to die out

Looking at this loop the LLC is south of Puerto rico unless that's the MLC but it looks like a LLC just popped underneath

[St0rmTh0r]

Definitely moving NNW now

[eastcoastFL]

saved loop

https://i.imgur.com/GQpSBNa.gif

That’s starting to look like a real storm on radar. I don’t think this one is going to die out

Looking at this loop the LLC is south of Puerto rico unless that's the MLC but it looks like a LLC just popped underneath

One which one are you looking at. I see what seems to be 2 rotations south of PR with the strongest along 66w and 17.5n

[USTropics]

PR radar for link for Laura:
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/RadarArchive/TJUA/loop.html

So are there multiple competing rotations? To the east of the ascat center there is a pretty strong rotation on radar

On radar we're seeing mostly the mid-level rotation. The low-level rotation is displaced from the mid-level currently (ASCAT shows the low-level vorticity).