MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1412
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PA...NY...CT...MA...VT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...
   
   VALID 021928Z - 022100Z
   
   GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS WITHIN WW 572 FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS WILL BE ACROSS PA.
   
   AT 1915Z...A BAND OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM NEAR IPT TO DUJ IN NRN PA
   AND WAS MOVING EWD AT 45-50 KT. THE RAPID EWD MOTION OF THESE STORMS
   PLUS THE DEEP UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE
   INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THESE STORMS. THE SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WOULD EVEN BE GREATER IF THESE STORMS ARE ABLE TO BECOME
   MORE N-S ORIENTED...PERPENDICULAR TO THE MEAN WLY FLOW. OTHER STORMS
   ARE ALSO DEVELOPING NEAR PIT ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY.
   THESE STORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE
   RAPIDLY EWD INTO AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES NEAR 90
   AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
   
   OTHER STRONG/SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE
   WATCH FROM BHM/ITH AREAS NEWD INTO UPSTATE NY...THOUGH CLOUDS AND
   COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES SUGGEST THE THREAT WILL BE MORE ISOLATED
   ACROSS THIS AREA THAN IN PA.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...CTP...PBZ...
   
   41787684 41647555 40967590 40497727 40387830 40277942
   40578005 40987975

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1413
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0245 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 021945Z - 022045Z
   
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY WILL BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SERN
   PA...NRN VA...MD...EWD INTO EXTREME SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   
   A CLUSTER OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL
   BOUNDARY FROM NEAR PKB EWD TO NEAR AOO. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR IS WEAKER...AROUND 25 KT...THAN AREA TO THE NORTH...THESE
   STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SEVERE AS THEY DEVELOP/SPREAD EWD WHERE
   MLCAPES RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG. OTHER STORMS NEAR IPT ARE ALSO
   MOVING EWD AND ARE LIKELY TO STRENGTHEN AS THEY MOVES INTO THE
   STRONGER INSTABILITY.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...AKQ...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   
   39077922 39547972 40247917 41477473 41697283 41047222
   39327435 38517575

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1414
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0314 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL/NRN GA/NW SC/WRN NC/ERN TN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022014Z - 022215Z
   
   ...ISOLD SVR TSTMS LIKELY THIS AFTN WITH MAIN THREATS OF HAIL AND
   STRONG/SVR TSTM WIND GUSTS...
   
   SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW DAYS...ISOLD STRONG/SVR TSTMS HAVE FORMED
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS. AIRMASS HAS BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1500-2000 J/KG...AND
   MODIFIED 12Z BIRMINGHAM/ATLANTA SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THESE VALUES. LOW
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PARTICULARLY STEEP AS STRONG INSOLATION HAS
   ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100. WINDS ALOFT ARE
   WEAK...SO STORMS WILL MOVE SLOWLY AND BE PULSE-LIKE IN NATURE. GIVEN
   TEMP/DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS NEAR 30-40 DEGREES...MAIN THREAT WILL BE
   STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS WITH STORMS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...RAH...RNK...CAE...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...
   
   34348255 33488446 34178602 34578622 35338600 35688506
   36148208 36568046 36377996 34888094 34508183

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1415
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0326 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EAST CENTRAL IL...NRN/CENTRAL IN AND WRN/CENTRAL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022026Z - 022200Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE FROM EAST CENTRAL IL EWD INTO
   CENTRAL OH AND A WW IS POSSIBLE.
   
   A BAND OF CLOUDS FROM NRN IL EWD ACROSS NRN IN/OH HAS CREATED A
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY...WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR 80 IN THE
   CLOUDY AREAS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND READINGS IN THE LOWER
   90S TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ONLY AROUND 25
   KT...UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY WINDS FROM THE SURFACE TO 300 MB AND A WELL
   MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH LAPSE RATES NEAR 9C/KM...WOULD SUPPORT
   STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY AT THIS
   TIME FOR A WATCH ISSUANCE IS WEAK CONVERGENCE SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY
   WHICH MAY LIMIT STORM COVERAGE.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   41318833 41528563 41448210 40298172 39678191 39608461
   39488603 39448691 39528808

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1416
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0338 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WY/WRN SD/WRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022038Z - 022245Z
   
   ...FAVORABLE UPSLOPE FLOW ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT STRONG/SVR TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS EVENING. AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR
   POSSIBLE WATCH...
   
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SUGGEST A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS WRN SD
   ATTM...ENHANCING THE ALREADY MODERATELY STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT.
   PROFILER DATA FROM MEDICINE BOW WY SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS
   INCREASED TO AROUND 30-35 KT...AND WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED
   MULTICELLS AND SUPERCELLS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME. AIRMASS ACROSS
   THE HIGH PLAINS HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE...AND SO STORMS
   MOVING OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE MOVING INTO A FAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT. 
   
   LATEST LOCAL RADAR DATA FROM CHEYENNE INDICATES A STRONG STORM SW OF
   BFF...ALREADY INDICATING LOW LEVEL ROTATION. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
   LARGE HAIL AND SVR WIND GUSTS...THOUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE
   RULED OUT. A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED SOON.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...BOU...CYS...
   
   40880223 40920573 43570597 44490501 44730384 44550231
   44020116 42660116 41250134

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1417
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO...SRN IA AND WRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022057Z - 022230Z
   
   MONITORING PORTIONS OF NRN MO...SRN IA AND WEST CENTRAL IL FOR A
   POSSIBLE WW.
   
   STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN MO...JUST
   SOUTH OF A WEAK BOUNDARY THAT SEPARATES A CLOUDY AREA TO THE NORTH
   AND STRONG HEATING TO THE SOUTH. ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK CONVERGENCE IS
   INDICATED...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES BOUNDARY LAYER IS WEAKLY
   CAPPED. IN ANY EVENT..UNSURE HOW MANY STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT
   THOSE THAT DO WILL HAVE SUFFICIENT SHEAR/INSTABILITY FOR SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL. QUESTION OF COVERAGE MAKES WATCH UNCERTAIN AS MODELS
   SUGGEST BETTER THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL BE LATER TONIGHT AS LOW
   LEVEL JET RESULTS IN WARM ADVECTION/LIFT OVER PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
   BOUNDARY. HOWEVER..IF STORMS APPEAR THEY WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
   THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED...A WW ISSUANCE MAY BE NEEDED.
   
   ..IMY.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   40899534 41389262 41169111 40519024 39649011 39109106
   39309276 40039538

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1418
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0425 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SE ORE/SRN ID/NERN NV/NW UT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022125Z - 022330Z
   
   ...ISOLD SVR TSTMS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...
   
   SATELLITE/RADAR LOOPS SHOW INCREASING COVERAGE OF TSTMS ACROSS
   MAINLY SRN PORTIONS OF ID AND THE ERN GREAT BASIN THIS AFTN. THIS IS
   LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE SCALE FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH WRN
   IMPULSE APPROACHING FROM NRN CA. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S
   ARE CONTRIBUTING TO A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /MLCAPE VALUES
   NEAR 2000 J/KG/ WHICH EXTENDS FROM THE PLATEAU THROUGH MAGIC VALLEY
   AND NW UT. LATEST RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS DEEP LAYER SHEAR HAS
   INCREASED TO AROUND 35-40 KT...WHICH WILL FAVOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLS
   OR SUPERCELLS. BACKED ELY WINDS WITHIN THE SNAKE RIVER VALLEY WILL
   ENHANCE LOW LEVEL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR. MAIN SEVERE THREATS WILL BE
   LARGE HAIL OR ISOLD SVR WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...SLC...PIH...BOI...LKN...MFR...
   
   40371503 42231971 43621944 43991671 43501472 42951219
   41671212 40311347

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1419
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...AZ/SRN CA/ERN NM/SRN NV
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 022229Z - 030030Z
   
   ...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SVR WIND GUSTS MAY BE INCREASING AS OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARIES BECOME MORE NUMEROUS...
   
   SCATTERED STRONG TSTMS HAVE AGAIN DEVELOPED THIS AFTN ALONG THE
   MOGOLLON RIM/WHITE MTNS AND CHIRICAHUA MTNS OF SE AZ. OBSERVED WIND
   GUSTS HAVE THUS FAR REMAINED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...AVERAGING BETWEEN
   30-35 KTS. WELL DEFINED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT FROM
   REGIONAL/LOCAL RADAR DATA JUST SW OF FLG TO AROUND 35 SSW OF SOW.
   THIS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MAY BE REINFORCED BY NEW TSTMS...POSSIBLY
   AFFECTING THE PHOENIX AREA LATER THIS AFTN. ADDITIONALLY STORMS ARE
   FORMING SOUTH OF LAS VEGAS AND ACROSS THE SAN BERNARDINO MTNS IN SRN
   CA...WHERE TEMPS ARE AT OR ABOVE 100 DEGREES. DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL IS
   HIGHER IN THESE LOCATIONS WITH LATEST DCAPE VALUES AROUND 1400-2000
   J/KG. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF STRONG WINDS AND MARGINALLY LARGE
   HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SLOW MOVING STORMS.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...SGX...
   
   31240914 31631221 33401677 35141640 36491522 36951119
   35830923 35060850 32710855

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1420
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0543 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN CT...SRN VT...WRN
   MA...PA...NJ...MD...NRN VA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 572...573...
   
   VALID 022243Z - 030015Z
   
   LINEAR TSTM COMPLEX HAS PRODUCED AN EFFECTIVE COLD FRONT/WIND SHIFT
   ARCING FROM THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY SWWD ACROSS NRN NJ/SERN PA.
   ANOTHER COMPLEX OF INTENSE ACTIVITY INITIATED EARLIER NEAR
   LEE/THERMAL TROUGH AXIS ACROSS THE DC AREA. EXPECT COMPLEX ACROSS
   ERN PA AND NRN NJ TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST INTO INSTABILITY AXIS WITH
   POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL POSSIBLY ACCOMPANYING THE
   PASSAGE OF THESE STORMS.
   
   MORE ISOLATED CELLS PERSIST FROM SOUTH OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY OF NY
   EWD TO SWRN VT. WHILE THESE STORMS EXIST IN AN UNSTABLE AND STRONGLY
   SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY WEAK LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND LARGE
   SCALE ASCENT APPEAR TO BE LIMITING FACTORS FOR MORE DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THESE AREAS AT THIS TIME.
   
   BOTH WATCH 572 AND 573 WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLEARED FORM THE WEST
   OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX...PBZ...
   
   39897376 38967874 40517902 41207741 42807550 43517304
   43067235 42367299

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1421
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0648 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CT...MA...ME...NH...RI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 575...
   
   VALID 022348Z - 030115Z
   
   TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ISOLATED AND SUB-SEVERE ACROSS WATCH 575 SO
   FAR. STRONGER STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LEVEL WIND MAX AND
   APPROACHING FRONT HAVE REMAINED CONFINED TO NRN ME AND SRN QUEBEC
   THROUGH THE EVENING. HOWEVER...DIAGNOSTIC DATA INDICATED THAT
   INSTABILITY AXIS WAS SITUATED FROM MA/SRN NH NEWD INTO WRN ME AND
   COULD STILL FUEL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS
   NRN PORTIONS OF WATCH 575 OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...FORCING FOR DEVELOPMENT APPEARS TO BE MORE LIMITED
   AND TIME OF DAY WILL ALSO HINDER ROBUST TSTM DEVELOP. THEREFORE...
   PORTIONS OF WATCH 575 ARE LIKELY TO BE CANCELED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/02/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CAR...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...
   
   41697072 41697365 45077177 45046923

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1422
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0748 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SW SD/WRN NEB
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 574...
   
   VALID 030048Z - 030215Z
   
   ...SEVERE THREAT HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SD AND WY. ISOLD SVR THREAT
   AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUE ACROSS NEB PANHANDLE...
   
   SEVERAL STRONG SUPERCELLS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 2-3 HOURS ACROSS
   SW SD...INCLUDING RECENT STORM OVER SHANNON COUNTY. THIS STORM
   PRODUCED A 42 KT WIND GUST AT PINE RIDGE /KIEN/ OVER AN HOUR
   AGO...AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS JUST EAST OF KIEN WITH WIDESPREAD WIND
   DAMAGE REPORTED ACROSS SHANNON COUNTY. SEVERE POTENTIAL ACROSS SD
   HAS DIMINISHED AS MOST STORMS HAVE MOVED SOUTH INTO SHERIDAN AND
   CHERRY COUNTIES IN NEB.
   
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR LOOKS MARGINAL BASED ON 00Z NORTH PLATTE
   SOUNDING...SO WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE ISSUED FARTHER EAST.
   EXTRAPOLATION FROM LATEST RADAR DATA SUGGESTS REMAINING SEVERE
   THREAT WILL BE ACROSS THE SERN PORTIONS OF WW 574...MAINLY THE NEB
   PANHANDLE. THERE ARE ALSO STRONG STORMS IN NERN CO THAT POSE AN
   ISOLD SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT ACROSS THAT REGION.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ABR...LBF...UNR...GLD...BOU...CYS...
   
   40210193 40020371 41470378 43190265 43750110 43750033
   43309986 42249997 41220031

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1423
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0959 PM CDT SUN JUL 02 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...IA...IL...IND...OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 030259Z - 030530Z
   
   WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS...POSSIBLY LOCALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE...
   WILL PERSIST ALONG AND NORTH OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST TONIGHT. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD CONTINUE TO OCCASIONALLY
   ATTAIN SEVERE LEVELS AND PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR A
   STRONG WIND GUST...OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.
   NO ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
   
   POCKETS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO CYCLE THROUGH INTENSITY CHANGES
   NEAR THE SURFACE FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...AND ALONG THE SRN
   EDGE OF STRONGER DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW. STRONGEST ACTIVITY AT
   PRESENT WAS OCCURRING ACROSS ECNTRL IL...WITH ADDITIONAL UPDRAFTS
   FORMING OVER PARTS OF NWRN IND. A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IMPULSE
   TRAVERSING THE LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY MAY BE CONTRIBUTING TO
   PERSISTENCE/RESURGENCE OF CONVECTION OVER THESE AREAS.
   
   FARTHER WEST...ACROSS IA...DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY SUBSIDED
   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW ISOLATED/WEAK CELLS NORTH AND EAST OF
   DSM. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP ACROSS
   THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AS STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED
   ACROSS THE FRONTAL ZONE CONTRIBUTES TO ENHANCED ASCENT. DESPITE
   ABUNDANT MOISTURE FLUX ACROSS THE AREA...RELATIVELY WEAK MID LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN LIMITED SEVERE
   POTENTIAL WITH ANY NEW ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN...DMX...
   
   40508128 40058202 39698460 39768830 41049370 41539349
   41979243 41028697 40878280

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1424
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0642 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS SE TX AND EXTREME SWRN LA.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 031142Z - 031445Z
   
   HAZARD FROM HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD INCREASE DURING NEXT 1-2 HOURS
   OVER PORTIONS GALVESTON/CHAMBERS/LIBERTY
   COUNTIES...SHIFTING/EXPANDING INLAND ACROSS PORTIONS SAN
   JACINTO/HARDIN/POLK/TYLER COUNTIES THROUGH AT LEAST 15Z.  RAIN RATES
   1-2 INCHES/HOUR WILL BE COMMON WITH LOCAL 3 INCH/HOUR RATES POSSIBLE
   IN HEAVIEST CORES.  MERGING/TRAINING OF CORES ALSO WILL ENHANCE
   HEAVY RAIN THREAT.  ISOLATED RATES TO AROUND 2 INCHES/HOUR ARE
   EXPECTED EWD TOWARD SABINE RIVER.
   
   AS OF 1125Z...TSTMS ARE INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY FROM
   SWRN CORNER GALVESTON COUNTY SSWWD TO AROUND 55 SE PSX...AND TO
   SOMEWHAT LESSER DEGREE IN A SEPARATE CLUSTER FROM CHAMBERS COUNTY
   NWWD THROUGH LIBERTY COUNTY.  ALL THIS CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE TO
   FILL IN AND MOVE NNEWD ACROSS AREAS IMMEDIATELY SURROUNDING GLS BAY
   AND FROM NRN SHORE OF BAY NEARLY TO LFK...AND EWD TO SABINE RIVER
   AREA BETWEEN BPT-LCH.  PRIMARY BAND OF TSTMS IS BUILDING IN ZONE OF
   VERY WEAK CAPPING INVOF SFC CONVERGENCE AXIS AND INVERTED TROUGH NOW
   ANALYZED FROM LIBERTY COUNTY SSWWD TO NEAR BUOY 42019...AND SHOULD
   CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/EXPAND INLAND.
   
   ALREADY VERY MOIST AIR MASS SHOULD BECOME EXTREMELY SO WITH
   TIME...AND FAVORABLE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT HEAVY RAINFALL PRODUCTION
   IN TSTMS.  ANALYSIS OF GPS DERIVED MOISTURE DATA BETWEEN GLS-LCH
   INDICATES ONSHORE PW VALUES AROUND 2.25 INCHES...WITH HIGHER VALUES
   LIKELY OFFSHORE BASED ON SFC BUOY DATA AND RUC SOUNDINGS.  MODIFIED
   00Z RAOBS AND RUC SOUNDINGS YIELD MLCAPES TO NEAR 2000 J/KG FROM GLS
   BAY SWD OVER GULF AND EWD TO VICINITY BPT.  DEPTH OF SUPERFREEZING
   LAYER -- ALMOST TO 500 MB FOR HIGHEST-THETAE LIFTED PARCEL -- AND
   LARGE AMOUNT OF WARM-CLOUD BUOYANCY ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
   EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...HGX...
   
   28759533 29399505 29899494 30519512 30929503 31049447
   30929389 30499361 30069356 29709373 29629392 29449436
   28909482

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1038 AM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NY/PA/NRN NJ/CT/RI/MA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031538Z - 031745Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS FORECAST TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 1 TO 3
   HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
   
   MORNING VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SMALL CUMULUS DEVELOPING
   WITHIN AN OTHERWISE CLEAR SKY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  DAYTIME
   HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S IS RESULTING IN MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION...WITH AN AXIS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 1000
   J/KG ACROSS SRN NY AND PARTS OF NRN PA.
   
   CU FIELD HAS RECENTLY SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF AGITATION...PARTICULARLY
   INVOF THE CATSKILLS...WHERE TCU ARE DEVELOPING.  DESPITE THE LACK OF
   A CLEAR LOW-LEVEL FOCUS...EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
   WITH TIME WITHIN THE DISCUSSION AREA...AS CONTINUED
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION RESULTS IN AN INCREASINGLY-FAVORABLE
   AIRMASS.
   
   MORNING SOUNDINGS REVEAL ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL/WNWLY FLOW...WHICH
   INCREASES WITH HEIGHT TO AROUND 40 KT AT MID LEVELS -- SUPPORTIVE OF
   STORM ORGANIZATION/INTENSIFICATION.  THOUGH FAIRLY WEAK LAPSE RATES
   SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE...THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS IS
   INDICATED -- PARTICULARLY IF STORMS CAN ORGANIZE INTO SMALL-SCALE
   LINES.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
   
   44027618 43657517 42417100 41547091 40487250 40057819
   40387978 41158007 42867870

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1426
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN VA/PARTS OF N CENTRAL AND NERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031734Z - 031930Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING OVER THE SHENANDOAH AND BLUE RIDGE
   MOUNTAINS.  THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS APPEARS TO BE INCREASING
   DOWNSTREAM...WHICH COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.
   
   LATEST RADAR SHOWS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN A SMALL-SCALE LINE
   ACROSS WRN VA...MOVING ESEWD AT AROUND 25 KT.  AREA VWPS AND MODEL
   SOUNDINGS INDICATE ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL LOW- TO MID-LEVEL
   FLOW...BUT ONLY IN THE 20 TO 25 KT RANGE.  NONETHELESS...
   TEMPERATURES ARE HEATING INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS S CENTRAL
   AND SERN VA AND INTO N CENTRAL AND NERN NC...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.  THIS IS RESULTING IN MEAN-LAYER CAPE OF 1000
   TO 1500 J/KG -- WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION STILL TO
   OCCUR.
   
   GIVEN DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   AND RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED LAYER...THE EVOLUTION OF AN
   ORGANIZED/BOWING CONVECTIVE LINE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF AN
   EVAPORATIVELY-DRIVEN COLD POOL APPEARS POSSIBLE.  DESPITE RELATIVELY
   WEAK FLOW ALOFT...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS WOULD INCREASE IN THIS
   SCENARIO.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...
   
   38117862 37947767 37257603 36187592 35667617 35307791
   36157943 37438085

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1427
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0153 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IA...SERN MN...CNTRL AND NRN WI...WRN UPR MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031853Z - 032030Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
   ALONG/AHEAD OF SURFACE COLD FRONT FROM WESTERN UPPER MI INTO
   NORTHERN IA.  WW WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CU/TCU BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
   ALONG SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MN. THIS
   AREA WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE
   OF HOURS AS DAYTIME HEATING AND NORTHWARD TRANSPORT OF LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE DESTABILIZE AIRMASS /MLCAPE OVER 1000 J/KG/.  WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING
   FROM THE WEST...WHICH WILL AID INITIATION/ORGANIZATION OF STORMS AND
   ENHANCE VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES /6KM VERTICAL SHEAR OVER 50 KNOTS/.
   INITIAL ACTIVITY MAY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF LARGE HAIL
   AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..HART.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   44639336 45659131 46318986 45878755 44468896 43499162
   43439455 43979475

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1428
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0207 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN IA/NCNTRL IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 031907Z - 032100Z
   
   ...STORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR A COLD FRONT IN CNTRL IA AND
   ALONG BOUNDARY THROUGH NCNTRL IL...
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS DEPICT A NARROW AREA OF CLEAR SKIES
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SRN IA...WITH ELEVATED STORMS/CLOUDS ACROSS NRN
   MO AND AN AGITATED CUMULUS FIELD SOUTH AND WEST OF DSM. WITHIN THE
   LAST FEW MINUTES...A STORM HAS FORMED NEAR AUDUBON...AND IT APPEARS
   ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE IMMINENT. ATMOSPHERE WITHIN THIS CLEAR ZONE
   HAS DESTABILIZED RAPIDLY THIS AFTN...WITH TEMPS ALREADY IN THE MID
   TO UPPER 80S. THESE TEMPS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S/LOWER 70S ARE CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 2500 J/KG.
   
   SLATER IA PROFILER SHOWS STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR...WITH AROUND
   35 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. FARTHER EAST ACROSS NCNTRL IL...STORMS
   HAVE LIKELY BEEN SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TO THIS POINT. HOWEVER...18Z
   SOUNDING FROM DAVENPORT IA SUGGESTS INHIBITION HAS ERODED...AND SFC
   BASED STORMS ARE LIKELY. GIVEN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR AND VERY
   UNSTABLE AIRMASS...SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL/SVR WIND GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE.
   
   ..TAYLOR.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...
   
   40219107 40059434 40379513 41689511 41799316 41858873
   41538764 40498771

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1429
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0322 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...E CENTRAL IL EWD INTO CENTRAL OH
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 032022Z - 032145Z
   
   AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS...POSSIBLY REQUIRING WW ISSUANCE.
   
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUBTLE/GENERALLY E-W AXES OF
   CONVERGENCE ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF OH AND INDIANA. AFTERNOON
   HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS GENERALLY NEAR 70 ARE RESULTING IN
   AN AXIS OF MEAN-LAYER CAPE RANGING FROM AROUND 500 J/KG OVER CENTRAL
   OH TO AROUND 2500 J/KG ACROSS W CENTRAL INDIANA ATTM.  CUMULUS
   DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES ALONG SEVERAL OF THESE SURFACE CONVERGENCE
   AXES...WITH MOST AGGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS W CENTRAL OH WHERE A
   PAIR OF SUPERCELLS EXIST. 
   
   THESE TWO OH STORMS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS THEY MOVE
   INTO MORE STABLE AIRMASS OVER CENTRAL OH.  HOWEVER...ANY STORM
   INITIATION FURTHER W SHOULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE -- GIVEN FAVORABLE
   INSTABILITY AND MODERATE/ROUGHLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY VERTICAL WIND
   PROFILES.  ALONG WITH THREAT FOR HAIL...LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE -- PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS WHICH CAN EVOLVE INTO
   CLUSTERS/SMALL-SCALE BOWS.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...
   
   40288182 40788364 41028635 40078862 39298785 39138218

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1430
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0354 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN VA/NERN NC
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 578...
   
   VALID 032054Z - 032230Z
   
   ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW.
   
   LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MOVING SEWD ACROSS
   SERN VA -- WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW EVIDENT EXPANDING SEWD AHEAD
   OF STORMS.
   
   CONVECTION HAS NOT ORGANIZED/INTENSIFIED AS ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
   STORMS ARE NOW APPROACHING AXIS OF MAXIMUM INSTABILITY.  STORMS MAY
   INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO AS THEY MOVE INTO THIS MORE
   FAVORABLE AIRMASS.  HOWEVER...OVERALL LACK OF MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION
   THUS FAR SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED GIVEN
   RELATIVELY WEAK WIND FIELD.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...RAH...RNK...
   
   37597756 37497708 36497563 35057686 35737844 36417902
   36757831

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1431
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0404 PM CDT MON JUL 03 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND ERN NY/NERN PA/SRN VT/WRN MA/CT/NRN NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 577...
   
   VALID 032104Z - 032230Z
   
   SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WW...AND MAY SPREAD E
   OF THE ST LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO PARTS OF NRN NY.
   
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE/MODERATELY-SHEARED ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND ERN NY AND VICINITY...WITH SCATTERED STORMS ONGOING
   ATTM.  STORMS CONTINUE TO EXHIBIT SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS...WITH
   SEVERAL RECENT STORM SPLITS NOTED.
   
   ALONG WITH ONGOING HAIL/WIND THREAT ACROSS WW...STRONG TO
   POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE MOVING QUICKLY EWD ACROSS SERN
   ONTARIO.  WITH NARROW AXIS OF INSTABILITY ACROSS NRN NY E OF LAKE
   ONTARIO...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE INCREASING ACROSS THIS AREA.
   
   ..GOSS.. 07/03/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...
   
   45147506 44917395 43437341 42647225 41007238 41017446
   41417711 43437719