Hurricane NOEL : Discussions & Images

[Canelaw99]

LOL - yep...we usually lose ours because there's so much construction down here. I just like knowing what's comin'....I'm not worried about this being a big storm, but it's sure an interesting one to try to track.

[HURAKAN]

so if the wind watches are being cancelled and they were due to the pressure gradient what change is occurring they were not expecting since they were to remain in effect until late tomorrow? Will this change anything associated with Noel? What are they now seeing differently?

Those are exactly my questions that have yet to be answered.....I know they're still expecting some winds, obviously, since there's a wind advisory, but it's not the high winds they were expecting....

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 25 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

[Canelaw99]

Yep, Hurakan, got that...what I don't get is what made the winds decrease today from what they were expecting? The high wind warning was there because they were expecting sustained winds of 40mph, and those aren't out there. So....just wondering why the change....

[Blown Away]

The turn has not begun yet.

Look at the radars at this page.The inland LLC is moving now NW albeit slowly.

WNW not NW IMO.

[Bgator]

I think the change is that Noel weakened, so the pressure gradient isnt as tight.

[HURAKAN]

Yep, Hurakan, got that...what I don't get is what made the winds decrease today from what they were expecting? The high wind warning was there because they were expecting sustained winds of 40mph, and those aren't out there. So....just wondering why the change....

If you look back at yesterday's forecast, today Noel should have been a much stronger storm that what in reality it's. A stronger storm would have meant a stronger gradient pressure due to a higher difference between the high pressure and the low pressure.

Because of the landfall, Noel has been filling up and decreasing the gradient pressure, therefore, less wind.

[Bgator]

Regardless, as of the last hour, gusts have picked up in Miami, and the clear skies have gone away.

[HURAKAN]

In the Miami Radar Long Range image you can see bands of showers approaching the peninsula. Are these associated with Noel's circulation?

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[Canelaw99]

That makes sense, ty....yeah, it's been windy here all day. I know we've got winds in the 20+mph range, gusting to 31 or so.....

[bocadude86]

Skies have now become cloudy here in Boca Raton and stil very windy

[Bgator]

Yes the bands of rain our associated with Noels overall circulation, look at Vis loop. You will see them.

[Decomdoug]

Here in Port St. Lucie the Wind is East at 12mph, Humidity is 68%, Dew point 69.93 and the Barometer is 30.00in Temp 81.5 The sun is out and we’ve had .75” of rain. Pretty much a nice fall day!
"Where's the beef?"

[Typhoon_Willie]

Just was curious if there was any center reformation going on north of Cuba?

[bocadude86]

special marine warning for the band of showers east of so fla could contain winds in excess of 50kts

[Evil Jeremy]

TS Watch still possible for Florida?

[cpdaman]

here in boca winds are ne/ene at 25 with gusts to 38 this hour

not sure if the station is on the beach, but gusts on the beach (just took a walk out) seem about the same as this morning up to 40 IMO but sky's were darkening.

outer bands appear to be entering miami interesting

[Evil Jeremy]

WTNT31 KNHC 302037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL STILL CENTERED INLAND OVER CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CUBA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

Track tracking back to the west again, but only a little bit: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 00716.html

[cycloneye]

NHC 302037
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM NOEL ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

...NOEL STILL CENTERED INLAND OVER CUBA...

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.0 WEST OR ABOUT 30
MILES... 45 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 280
MILES...450 KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU.

NOEL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR. A GRADUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON
THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CUBA
TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA
TOMORROW.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175 MILES...280
KM...MAINLY TO THE NORTHEAST FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE WARNING AREAS.

NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20
INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF
30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA
AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA... ARE
EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.

REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...21.0 N...78.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA
000
WTNT21 KNHC 302035
TCMAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
2100 UTC TUE OCT 30 2007

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CUBA WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF SANCTI
SPIRITUS...CIEGO DE AVILA...CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...
HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NOEL.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH COULD BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TONIGHT OR TOMORROW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 78.0W AT 30/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 78.0W AT 30/2100Z
AT 30/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 21.6N 78.8W...NEAR SOUTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.6N 79.2W...NEAR NORTH COAST OF CUBA
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.1N 78.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.8N 77.2W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 34.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 0SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 0SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 48.5N 56.5W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 78.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER KNABB


000
WTNT41 KNHC 302058
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007
500 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

THE CENTER OF NOEL IS STILL CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...HAVING SPENT THE DAY MOVING ESSENTIALLY DUE WESTWARD...
ALTHOUGH AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 7 KNOTS.
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE GENERALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE POSITION
DERIVED FROM THE IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THOSE OBSERVATIONS
SUGGEST THE CENTER COULD BE A BIT SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET TO 35 KT...BASED IN PART ON A
SURFACE WIND OBSERVATION OF 35 KT FROM A DROPSONDE...WELL TO THE
NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...LAUNCHED BY THE NOAA GULFSTREAM-IV JET
THAT HAS BEGUN ITS SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSION.

DESPITE THE CONTINUED WESTWARD MOTION TODAY...NOEL IS STILL EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS
THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH SLIDES EASTWARD IN ADVANCE
OF AN APPROACHING SHORT-WAVE AND FRONTAL SYSTEM. WHILE THE VARIOUS
DYNAMICAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DISAGREE ON HOW LONG IT WILL TAKE FOR
NOEL TO GAIN ANY LATITUDE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STAYS CLOSE TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS...WHICH IS ALONG THE SAME PATH BUT JUST A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FROM 48 HOURS ON...THE
NEW TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED IN TAKING NOEL QUICKLY
NORTHEASTWARD WHILE UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION.

LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH APPEARS LIKELY UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES
BACK OVER WATER NORTH OF CUBA. AFTER THAT...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE THROUGH 48 HOURS IN
CALLING FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING WHILE NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
A TROPICAL CYCLONE. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION IS EXPECTED BY 72
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS. SOME OF THE MODELS PREDICT THAT NOEL ITSELF WILL
NOT LAST BEYOND ABOUT 3 DAYS...AND INSTEAD CALL FOR NOEL TO BE
ABSORBED WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE OF AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE
FARTHER NORTH. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL ASSUME THAT
NOEL WILL REMAIN INTACT AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR THE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE.

THE STRONG GUSTY WINDS CURRENTLY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF FLORIDA ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE NORTH AND ARE
NOT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION OF NOEL. SEE STATEMENTS
FROM NWS LOCAL FORECAST OFFICES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 30/2100Z 21.0N 78.0W 35 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
12HR VT 31/0600Z 21.6N 78.8W 35 KT...NEAR S COAST OF CUBA
24HR VT 31/1800Z 22.6N 79.2W 35 KT...NEAR N COAST OF CUBA
36HR VT 01/0600Z 24.1N 78.8W 40 KT...OVER WATER
48HR VT 01/1800Z 26.8N 77.2W 45 KT
72HR VT 02/1800Z 34.0N 70.0W 50 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
96HR VT 03/1800Z 41.0N 63.0W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
120HR VT 04/1800Z 48.5N 56.5W 60 KT...EXTRATROPICAL

$$
FORECASTER KNABB/LANDSEA

[RL3AO]

Track tracking back to the west again, but only a little bit

It better start moving WNW and NW because it is getting pretty close to emerging into the Caribbean.

[JonathanBelles]

Track tracking back to the west again, but only a little bit

It better start moving WNW and NW because it is getting pretty close to emerging into the Caribbean.

I'm beginning to think that it will move into the crib.