ATL: TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE - DISCUSSION

[wxman57]

Thursday was the day it was supposed to develop. Just gave us a brief scare on Tuesday when shear dropped off briefly. I'd say there's a fair chance it'll clip the southern peninsula of Florida vs. pass through the central Keys. Probably still be a small and rather disorganized TS then, though. Shear may continue to affect it off and on until final landfall. Probably mid to SW Louisiana coast Sunday afternoon. Won't rule out a hurricane, but probably a strong TS. Hopefully, nothing for me here in Houston.

[caneman]

she is compacting because she about to be crunched from the NE by the building ridge...nice Bonnie sandwich....she is moving NW now but it wont be much longer...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

i agree ROCK i think we are about to start seeing more of a westerly movement real soon

Long enough North to affect Florida. First things first folks.

[Nederlander]

No possible way of getting to a hurricane before it hits Forida, probably not even close.
then maybe a mid to strong tropical storm once it hits the gulf due to the forecasted shear.

While I agree with you that its highly, highly unlikely.. especially given the conditions.. I would urge anyone to stay away from terms like that when talking about tropical systems.. i experienced Humberto firsthand..

[funster]

Bonnie is starting to look much better on radar to me - maybe a chance of a strong TS before Florida.

[StormTracker]

Does anybody think this will become a hurricane if so what cat do you thin I am new to these boards

I'm sticking to my original idea that it will make landfall as a very shallow CAT1! It could happen!

[caneman]

Yeah I would stay away from an 'It Won't Happen' type statement. Stranger things have happened in the tropics.

[CourierPR]

she is compacting because she about to be crunched from the NE by the building ridge...nice Bonnie sandwich....she is moving NW now but it wont be much longer...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

i agree ROCK i think we are about to start seeing more of a westerly movement real soon

Long enough North to affect Florida. First things first folks.

Yes. Unfortunately, we're beginning to see an upswing in parochial prognostication.

[tolakram]

[Frank P]

Well in my unprofessional opinion Bonnie appears to be riding on the right of the model forecasts, and we'll need to see if this trend continues... way to early to call but latest model runs appear in pretty good consensus all in all.. well see how much swinging the models will do on the next couple of runs... and if we can get some consistency... I think the big deal out of all this as it stands now will be the impact to the coastlines from the oil..

[Steve]

I agree with Rock this time, the crunch is about to be on. You can see it using your favorite augmented IR (funktop, rgb, avn, unenhanced) on the Floater1 where the center was probably moving even a bit north of northwest, the deepest convection has kind of jumped wnw, and the N-NW fringes nearing the coast of Florida are stretching out like they're being pulled in by a vacuum or a magnet. The entire envelope that is Bonnie is reorienting itself toward the WNW.

Obligatory Link to Floater 1 loop (unenhanced/CH4) page:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-ir4.html

The remainder of this post is the opinion of this poster only.

For my money, initial landfall looks to happen somewhere in Miami-Dade or Broward Counties. There's the outside chance it could make it up to Palm Beach Co. but I think the timing will be such that it will have turned by then and shunted off toward the W or WNW. Assuming landfall, I can't see the circulation getting north of Charlotte Co. (or extreme outside shot at Sarasota) exiting SW FL. It should be interesting to see the landfall interaction. Clearly all Atlantic Basin landfalling systems so far in 2010 have strengthened nearing landfall from the E or SE (including 95L & 98L). This isn't ucommon either for July or storms approaching at a +/- perpendicular angle. I doubt it could get too strong, but depending, you could see a 45-50mph system come through down there (real outside shot at 60mph????)

[ocala]

she is compacting because she about to be crunched from the NE by the building ridge...nice Bonnie sandwich....she is moving NW now but it wont be much longer...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

i agree ROCK i think we are about to start seeing more of a westerly movement real soon

Yeah but in the last 75 minutes it has moved due north.
I can see NW but north?

[ConvergenceZone]

No possible way of getting to a hurricane before it hits Forida, probably not even close.
then maybe a mid to strong tropical storm once it hits the gulf due to the forecasted shear.

While I agree with you that its highly, highly unlikely.. especially given the conditions.. I would urge anyone to stay away from terms like that when talking about tropical systems.. i experienced Humberto firsthand..

Believe me, if the NHC thought there was even a remote chance of that occuring, they would have alerted the folks of Florida. They wouldn't take a chance on a storm this close to the mainland.....

[neospaceblue]

No possible way of getting to a hurricane before it hits Forida, probably not even close.
then maybe a mid to strong tropical storm once it hits the gulf due to the forecasted shear.

Erin of '95 formed in the same general vicinity Bonnie is in now, and managed to hit 80-85mph before it reached the Florida coast.

[HURAKAN]

A nice shower passed by

[redfish1]

she is compacting because she about to be crunched from the NE by the building ridge...nice Bonnie sandwich....she is moving NW now but it wont be much longer...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-wv.html

i agree ROCK i think we are about to start seeing more of a westerly movement real soon

Yeah but in the last 75 minutes it has moved due north.
I cab see NW but north?

look at the ridge it is moving in and moving all convection wnw

[TeamPlayersBlue]

No possible way of getting to a hurricane before it hits Forida, probably not even close.
then maybe a mid to strong tropical storm once it hits the gulf due to the forecasted shear.

While I agree with you that its highly, highly unlikely.. especially given the conditions.. I would urge anyone to stay away from terms like that when talking about tropical systems.. i experienced Humberto firsthand..

I agree, Humberto was very organized as a TD before it blew up but when you are dealing with high temps like we see in the Gulf, alot can happen.

[bahamaswx]

Just some rain here on and off all day. Been pretty windy all week, so not much change there. No big deal.

[southerngale]

No possible way of getting to a hurricane before it hits Forida, probably not even close.
then maybe a mid to strong tropical storm once it hits the gulf due to the forecasted shear.

While I agree with you that its highly, highly unlikely.. especially given the conditions.. I would urge anyone to stay away from terms like that when talking about tropical systems.. i experienced Humberto firsthand..

Believe me, if the NHC thought there was even a remote chance of that occuring, they would have alerted the folks of Florida. They wouldn't take a chance on a storm this close to the mainland.....

They're not going to predict something much stronger than they think it will be. I believe his point was, in a nutshell: Never say never in the tropics. He mentioned Humberto because it wasn't forecast to be a hurricane and ramped up to one EXTREMELY fast before hitting us in SE TX. I don't think anyone thinks Bonnie will be a hurricane if/when it hits Florida, but there is always a chance. Intensity is very hard to forecast.

[somethingfunny]

Can someone explain why the ULL wouldn't serve to pull Bonnie northward and then over the top of it? I understand that they're basically moving in tandem, but I'd like a more detailed explanation if someone could please help me out with this.

[ConvergenceZone]

No possible way of getting to a hurricane before it hits Forida, probably not even close.
then maybe a mid to strong tropical storm once it hits the gulf due to the forecasted shear.

Erin of '95 formed in the same general vicinity Bonnie is in now, and managed to hit 80-85mph before it reached the Florida coast.

Erin of 95 also had better conditions to work with. This situation is completely different.