000
URNT15 KNHC 111408
AF308 0614A MARIA HDOB 23 20110911
135830 1848N 06434W 8430 01560 //// +189 //// 121003 004 023 001 01
135900 1846N 06435W 8429 01562 //// +188 //// 025002 004 024 000 01
135930 1845N 06436W 8429 01563 //// +195 //// 331005 006 025 000 01
140000 1843N 06437W 8431 01562 //// +197 //// 313010 013 024 003 05
140030 1841N 06437W 8425 01567 //// +195 //// 292017 019 025 001 05
140100 1840N 06435W 8436 01560 //// +192 //// 273021 024 030 000 01
140130 1838N 06434W 8425 01570 //// +181 //// 257026 028 031 000 01
140200 1837N 06432W 8425 01570 //// +185 //// 252025 025 029 001 01
140230 1837N 06432W 8425 01570 //// +183 //// 254025 027 030 000 01
140300 1834N 06429W 8429 01573 //// +179 //// 258027 027 030 000 01
140330 1833N 06428W 8432 01570 //// +180 //// 255025 026 028 000 01
140400 1831N 06426W 8429 01573 //// +178 //// 253027 027 028 001 01
140430 1830N 06424W 8430 01572 //// +179 //// 247028 029 035 009 05
140500 1828N 06423W 8427 01575 //// +180 //// 243028 030 032 000 05
140530 1827N 06421W 8428 01575 //// +176 //// 246026 027 034 000 01
140600 1825N 06419W 8431 01573 //// +175 //// 243027 028 033 001 01
140630 1824N 06418W 8429 01575 //// +175 //// 238028 029 033 000 01
140700 1823N 06416W 8430 01575 //// +173 //// 239029 030 032 001 01
140730 1821N 06415W 8431 01574 //// +171 //// 229029 030 034 001 01
140800 1821N 06415W 8431 01574 //// +171 //// 223030 030 034 000 01
$$
;
ATL: MARIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
0 likes
Its LLC has broken off its mid level circulation is just north of the Virgin Islands right now.
18.8N & 64.6W
URNT12 KNHC 111412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/13:59:30Z
B. 18 deg 45 min N
064 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 41 kt
E. 347 deg 62 nm
F. 078 deg 34 kt
G. 336 deg 116 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C / 1537 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0614A MARIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 13:26:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 028 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
18.8N & 64.6W
URNT12 KNHC 111412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/13:59:30Z
B. 18 deg 45 min N
064 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 41 kt
E. 347 deg 62 nm
F. 078 deg 34 kt
G. 336 deg 116 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C / 1537 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0614A MARIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 13:26:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 028 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
0 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 111418
AF308 0614A MARIA HDOB 24 20110911
140830 1818N 06411W 8430 01581 //// +180 //// 219029 029 034 001 01
140900 1817N 06410W 8429 01584 //// +181 //// 221031 032 033 000 01
140930 1815N 06408W 8430 01583 //// +178 //// 222033 033 033 000 01
141000 1814N 06406W 8430 01583 //// +180 //// 226032 033 033 000 01
141030 1812N 06405W 8429 01584 //// +174 //// 224033 033 033 000 01
141100 1810N 06403W 8429 01584 //// +176 //// 222032 032 032 001 01
141130 1809N 06401W 8430 01584 //// +175 //// 222032 032 032 000 01
141200 1807N 06359W 8431 01584 //// +175 //// 221031 032 033 000 01
141230 1806N 06358W 8432 01584 //// +174 //// 216032 033 032 000 01
141300 1804N 06356W 8428 01587 //// +175 //// 219033 033 033 000 01
141330 1803N 06354W 8430 01586 //// +175 //// 218034 034 031 000 01
141400 1802N 06352W 8428 01590 //// +175 //// 215034 035 033 000 05
141430 1800N 06350W 8429 01589 //// +170 //// 217033 034 033 000 05
141500 1759N 06349W 8444 01574 //// +171 //// 218032 032 033 000 01
141530 1757N 06347W 8421 01598 //// +172 //// 218031 032 032 000 01
141600 1755N 06346W 8430 01589 //// +173 //// 220031 032 031 000 01
141630 1754N 06345W 8422 01597 //// +174 //// 219033 034 033 001 01
141700 1752N 06343W 8427 01597 //// +170 //// 218034 034 034 001 01
141730 1751N 06341W 8430 01595 //// +172 //// 216034 034 034 000 01
141800 1749N 06340W 8431 01595 //// +175 //// 217033 034 033 000 01
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 111418
AF308 0614A MARIA HDOB 24 20110911
140830 1818N 06411W 8430 01581 //// +180 //// 219029 029 034 001 01
140900 1817N 06410W 8429 01584 //// +181 //// 221031 032 033 000 01
140930 1815N 06408W 8430 01583 //// +178 //// 222033 033 033 000 01
141000 1814N 06406W 8430 01583 //// +180 //// 226032 033 033 000 01
141030 1812N 06405W 8429 01584 //// +174 //// 224033 033 033 000 01
141100 1810N 06403W 8429 01584 //// +176 //// 222032 032 032 001 01
141130 1809N 06401W 8430 01584 //// +175 //// 222032 032 032 000 01
141200 1807N 06359W 8431 01584 //// +175 //// 221031 032 033 000 01
141230 1806N 06358W 8432 01584 //// +174 //// 216032 033 032 000 01
141300 1804N 06356W 8428 01587 //// +175 //// 219033 033 033 000 01
141330 1803N 06354W 8430 01586 //// +175 //// 218034 034 031 000 01
141400 1802N 06352W 8428 01590 //// +175 //// 215034 035 033 000 05
141430 1800N 06350W 8429 01589 //// +170 //// 217033 034 033 000 05
141500 1759N 06349W 8444 01574 //// +171 //// 218032 032 033 000 01
141530 1757N 06347W 8421 01598 //// +172 //// 218031 032 032 000 01
141600 1755N 06346W 8430 01589 //// +173 //// 220031 032 031 000 01
141630 1754N 06345W 8422 01597 //// +174 //// 219033 034 033 001 01
141700 1752N 06343W 8427 01597 //// +170 //// 218034 034 034 001 01
141730 1751N 06341W 8430 01595 //// +172 //// 216034 034 034 000 01
141800 1749N 06340W 8431 01595 //// +175 //// 217033 034 033 000 01
$$
;
0 likes
They found the LLC well S & W than thought previously estimated.
URNT12 KNHC 111412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/13:59:30Z
B. 18 deg 45 min N
064 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 41 kt
E. 347 deg 62 nm
F. 078 deg 34 kt
G. 336 deg 116 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C / 1537 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0614A MARIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 13:26:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 028 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
URNT12 KNHC 111412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/13:59:30Z
B. 18 deg 45 min N
064 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 41 kt
E. 347 deg 62 nm
F. 078 deg 34 kt
G. 336 deg 116 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C / 1537 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0614A MARIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 13:26:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 028 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
0 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
000
UZNT13 KNHC 111412
XXAA 61148 99187 70646 04384 99007 27412 23504 00065 27011 32503
92754 23208 23506 85493 20650 33503 88999 77999
31313 09608 81359
61616 AF308 0614A MARIA OB 04
62626 SPL 1874N06460W 1401 MBL WND 23003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 24003
006843 WL150 28003 083 REL 1874N06460W 135929 SPG 1874N06460W 140
111 =
XXBB 61148 99187 70646 04384 00007 27412 11907 22609 22850 20650
33843 19457
21212 00007 23504 11981 20501 22953 21007 33929 22504 44921 23008
55914 22504 66856 34502 77843 33005
31313 09608 81359
61616 AF308 0614A MARIA OB 04
62626 SPL 1874N06460W 1401 MBL WND 23003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 24003
006843 WL150 28003 083 REL 1874N06460W 135929 SPG 1874N06460W 140
111 =
;
UZNT13 KNHC 111412
XXAA 61148 99187 70646 04384 99007 27412 23504 00065 27011 32503
92754 23208 23506 85493 20650 33503 88999 77999
31313 09608 81359
61616 AF308 0614A MARIA OB 04
62626 SPL 1874N06460W 1401 MBL WND 23003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 24003
006843 WL150 28003 083 REL 1874N06460W 135929 SPG 1874N06460W 140
111 =
XXBB 61148 99187 70646 04384 00007 27412 11907 22609 22850 20650
33843 19457
21212 00007 23504 11981 20501 22953 21007 33929 22504 44921 23008
55914 22504 66856 34502 77843 33005
31313 09608 81359
61616 AF308 0614A MARIA OB 04
62626 SPL 1874N06460W 1401 MBL WND 23003 AEV 20802 DLM WND 24003
006843 WL150 28003 083 REL 1874N06460W 135929 SPG 1874N06460W 140
111 =
;
Last edited by Macrocane on Sun Sep 11, 2011 9:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
-
cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145318
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re:
NDG wrote:Its LLC has broken off its mid level circulation is just north of the Virgin Islands right now.
18.8N & 64.6W
URNT12 KNHC 111412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/13:59:30Z
B. 18 deg 45 min N
064 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 41 kt
E. 347 deg 62 nm
F. 078 deg 34 kt
G. 336 deg 116 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C / 1537 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0614A MARIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 13:26:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 028 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
You can see it beneath the cirrus clouds.
Saved image.
0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Lol, macrocane, I think we posted the VDM and deleted it at the same time, lol. Sorry about that.
URNT12 KNHC 111412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/13:59:30Z
B. 18 deg 45 min N
064 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 41 kt
E. 347 deg 62 nm
F. 078 deg 34 kt
G. 336 deg 116 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C / 1537 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0614A MARIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 13:26:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 028 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
URNT12 KNHC 111412
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL142011
A. 11/13:59:30Z
B. 18 deg 45 min N
064 deg 36 min W
C. 850 mb 1492 m
D. 41 kt
E. 347 deg 62 nm
F. 078 deg 34 kt
G. 336 deg 116 nm
H. 1007 mb
I. 16 C / 1537 m
J. 19 C / 1524 m
K. NA / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 1 nm
P. AF308 0614A MARIA OB 03
MAX FL WIND 34 KT NW QUAD 13:26:30Z
MAX FL TEMP 20 C 028 / 7 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
0 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
Don't worry, thanks for your help!000
URNT15 KNHC 111428
AF308 0614A MARIA HDOB 25 20110911
141830 1748N 06338W 8429 01598 //// +175 //// 214033 033 034 000 01
141900 1747N 06336W 8431 01597 //// +174 //// 214034 036 032 000 01
141930 1745N 06334W 8442 01589 //// +174 //// 209034 035 031 000 31
142000 1744N 06332W 8431 01596 //// +169 //// 207032 032 032 000 05
142030 1743N 06330W 8431 01595 //// +170 //// 208031 032 031 000 01
142100 1742N 06329W 8432 01596 //// +174 //// 207031 032 033 000 01
142130 1740N 06328W 8425 01603 //// +171 //// 209031 031 033 001 01
142200 1739N 06327W 8425 01604 //// +167 //// 210031 031 033 000 01
142230 1737N 06326W 8430 01602 //// +170 //// 208031 032 033 000 01
142300 1735N 06325W 8429 01606 //// +169 //// 209031 031 033 000 01
142330 1733N 06324W 8430 01604 //// +170 //// 209030 030 031 001 01
142400 1731N 06323W 8430 01604 //// +170 //// 210032 032 032 000 05
142430 1730N 06321W 8429 01607 //// +168 //// 210033 033 032 000 01
142500 1729N 06319W 8438 01596 //// +167 //// 207032 032 032 001 01
142530 1728N 06317W 8434 01597 //// +167 //// 208031 031 031 000 01
142600 1727N 06316W 8429 01601 //// +165 //// 208032 033 031 000 01
142630 1726N 06314W 8433 01596 //// +164 //// 206031 032 033 002 05
142700 1727N 06312W 8426 01601 //// +167 //// 196030 030 /// /// 05
142730 1729N 06313W 8436 01594 //// +169 //// 192029 030 040 001 05
142800 1731N 06313W 8428 01600 //// +163 //// 195031 033 040 000 01
$$
;
0 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That's not even close of the actual position, I guess that means a west shift on the 12z models.
0 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 111438
AF308 0614A MARIA HDOB 26 20110911
142830 1733N 06313W 8434 01594 //// +165 //// 196033 033 036 000 05
142900 1735N 06313W 8430 01597 //// +165 //// 195033 034 036 000 05
142930 1737N 06312W 8433 01592 //// +165 //// 195034 035 035 002 01
143000 1739N 06312W 8431 01597 //// +166 //// 192036 037 036 001 05
143030 1741N 06311W 8433 01596 //// +167 //// 194033 034 035 000 05
143100 1743N 06312W 8429 01601 //// +166 //// 194032 032 037 000 31
143130 1745N 06312W 8432 01595 //// +162 //// 197027 030 037 000 01
143200 1747N 06313W 8429 01603 //// +161 //// 191030 034 036 001 01
143230 1749N 06313W 8441 01590 //// +165 //// 194034 034 034 000 01
143300 1750N 06314W 8425 01608 //// +165 //// 193033 033 035 000 05
143330 1752N 06315W 8431 01601 //// +168 //// 195031 033 034 001 05
143400 1753N 06317W 8428 01603 //// +170 //// 193032 032 033 001 01
143430 1754N 06318W 8427 01602 //// +166 //// 193031 032 033 000 01
143500 1756N 06319W 8432 01595 //// +169 //// 192033 034 037 000 05
143530 1758N 06319W 8430 01597 //// +170 //// 191035 035 038 000 05
143600 1800N 06319W 8429 01598 //// +171 //// 191037 037 038 000 01
143630 1802N 06319W 8430 01597 //// +168 //// 191036 037 036 001 01
143700 1804N 06319W 8429 01598 //// +170 //// 191036 037 038 000 01
143730 1806N 06319W 8429 01598 //// +170 //// 189037 037 037 000 01
143800 1808N 06319W 8428 01600 //// +170 //// 189037 037 038 001 05
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 111438
AF308 0614A MARIA HDOB 26 20110911
142830 1733N 06313W 8434 01594 //// +165 //// 196033 033 036 000 05
142900 1735N 06313W 8430 01597 //// +165 //// 195033 034 036 000 05
142930 1737N 06312W 8433 01592 //// +165 //// 195034 035 035 002 01
143000 1739N 06312W 8431 01597 //// +166 //// 192036 037 036 001 05
143030 1741N 06311W 8433 01596 //// +167 //// 194033 034 035 000 05
143100 1743N 06312W 8429 01601 //// +166 //// 194032 032 037 000 31
143130 1745N 06312W 8432 01595 //// +162 //// 197027 030 037 000 01
143200 1747N 06313W 8429 01603 //// +161 //// 191030 034 036 001 01
143230 1749N 06313W 8441 01590 //// +165 //// 194034 034 034 000 01
143300 1750N 06314W 8425 01608 //// +165 //// 193033 033 035 000 05
143330 1752N 06315W 8431 01601 //// +168 //// 195031 033 034 001 05
143400 1753N 06317W 8428 01603 //// +170 //// 193032 032 033 001 01
143430 1754N 06318W 8427 01602 //// +166 //// 193031 032 033 000 01
143500 1756N 06319W 8432 01595 //// +169 //// 192033 034 037 000 05
143530 1758N 06319W 8430 01597 //// +170 //// 191035 035 038 000 05
143600 1800N 06319W 8429 01598 //// +171 //// 191037 037 038 000 01
143630 1802N 06319W 8430 01597 //// +168 //// 191036 037 036 001 01
143700 1804N 06319W 8429 01598 //// +170 //// 191036 037 038 000 01
143730 1806N 06319W 8429 01598 //// +170 //// 189037 037 037 000 01
143800 1808N 06319W 8428 01600 //// +170 //// 189037 037 038 001 05
$$
;
0 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Not that it matters. What a mess of a storm, this is like Don all over again.
0 likes
Re: ATL: MARIA - Recon
000
URNT15 KNHC 111448
AF308 0614A MARIA HDOB 27 20110911
143830 1810N 06318W 8430 01597 //// +170 //// 189038 039 038 000 01
143900 1812N 06317W 8430 01597 //// +170 //// 189040 041 037 001 01
143930 1814N 06316W 8429 01597 //// +175 //// 189041 041 037 001 01
144000 1816N 06316W 8429 01596 //// +170 //// 188041 042 062 026 01
144030 1818N 06315W 8431 01594 //// +170 //// 189041 041 038 003 05
144100 1820N 06315W 8429 01594 //// +169 //// 189039 040 040 000 01
144130 1822N 06315W 8430 01591 //// +170 //// 186039 039 040 001 01
144200 1824N 06315W 8432 01589 //// +170 //// 186039 039 038 000 01
144230 1826N 06315W 8418 01601 //// +171 //// 189040 040 039 000 01
144300 1828N 06316W 8425 01598 //// +170 //// 188041 042 039 000 01
144330 1831N 06316W 8424 01601 //// +172 //// 188042 042 039 000 01
144400 1834N 06316W 8429 01594 //// +172 //// 188042 043 040 001 01
144430 1836N 06317W 8429 01592 //// +171 //// 187043 044 040 000 01
144500 1839N 06317W 8429 01590 //// +170 //// 185045 046 041 000 01
144530 1842N 06317W 8429 01589 //// +170 //// 186046 047 043 000 01
144600 1844N 06317W 8433 01581 //// +171 //// 186046 047 042 000 01
144630 1847N 06317W 8436 01573 //// +172 //// 185047 047 043 000 05
144700 1849N 06317W 8426 01580 //// +172 //// 184046 046 043 001 01
144730 1852N 06317W 8427 01577 //// +170 //// 185048 048 043 000 01
144800 1854N 06317W 8443 01558 //// +174 //// 188047 048 041 000 05
$$
;
URNT15 KNHC 111448
AF308 0614A MARIA HDOB 27 20110911
143830 1810N 06318W 8430 01597 //// +170 //// 189038 039 038 000 01
143900 1812N 06317W 8430 01597 //// +170 //// 189040 041 037 001 01
143930 1814N 06316W 8429 01597 //// +175 //// 189041 041 037 001 01
144000 1816N 06316W 8429 01596 //// +170 //// 188041 042 062 026 01
144030 1818N 06315W 8431 01594 //// +170 //// 189041 041 038 003 05
144100 1820N 06315W 8429 01594 //// +169 //// 189039 040 040 000 01
144130 1822N 06315W 8430 01591 //// +170 //// 186039 039 040 001 01
144200 1824N 06315W 8432 01589 //// +170 //// 186039 039 038 000 01
144230 1826N 06315W 8418 01601 //// +171 //// 189040 040 039 000 01
144300 1828N 06316W 8425 01598 //// +170 //// 188041 042 039 000 01
144330 1831N 06316W 8424 01601 //// +172 //// 188042 042 039 000 01
144400 1834N 06316W 8429 01594 //// +172 //// 188042 043 040 001 01
144430 1836N 06317W 8429 01592 //// +171 //// 187043 044 040 000 01
144500 1839N 06317W 8429 01590 //// +170 //// 185045 046 041 000 01
144530 1842N 06317W 8429 01589 //// +170 //// 186046 047 043 000 01
144600 1844N 06317W 8433 01581 //// +171 //// 186046 047 042 000 01
144630 1847N 06317W 8436 01573 //// +172 //// 185047 047 043 000 05
144700 1849N 06317W 8426 01580 //// +172 //// 184046 046 043 001 01
144730 1852N 06317W 8427 01577 //// +170 //// 185048 048 043 000 01
144800 1854N 06317W 8443 01558 //// +174 //// 188047 048 041 000 05
$$
;
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145318
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MARIA - Advisories
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
...CENTER OF MARINA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MARIA IS RATHER DECEIVING THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
AIRCRAFT HAS YET TO SAMPLE THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL.
MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
LONGER TERM MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. MARIA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED.
AFTER 48 HOURS...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 19.0N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 20.1N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 21.1N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 21.9N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 22.9N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 27.5N 69.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 45.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
...CENTER OF MARINA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
INTERESTS IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MARIA.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MARIA WAS
LOCATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT NEAR
LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.6 WEST. MARIA IS MOVING TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H. A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY...AND THIS MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF
MARIA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE AWAY FROM THE EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. THESE WINDS ARE OCCURRING OVER WATER TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS ANTICIPATED
DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325
KM...TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.
THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE WAS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF
2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OVER THE
LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF MARIA IS RATHER DECEIVING THIS MORNING.
ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL STORM IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF VERY DEEP
CONVECTION...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE CONVECTION DUE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR FROM A
MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF MARIA. VISIBLE SATELLITE
IMAGERY...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...AND AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT
THE CENTER IS LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE
AIRCRAFT HAS YET TO SAMPLE THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 50 KT...WHICH
IS CLOSE TO THE LATEST DVORAK ESTIMATES.
THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN...BUT MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN AN
AREA OF MODERATE SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DURING THE NEXT
FEW DAYS. FOR NOW...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE MORE CONSERVATIVE LGEM MODEL.
MARIA HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD THIS MORNING...HOWEVER THE
LONGER TERM MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. MARIA IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE ON A MOTION BETWEEN WEST-NORTHWEST AND
NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE FOR THE NEXT 24 TO
36 HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE CURRENT DISORGANIZED STRUCTURE OF
THE CYCLONE...A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IS POSSIBLE. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED TO THE SOUTH DURING THE NEXT FIRST COUPLE
OF DAYS AND AN ADDITIONAL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT COULD BE REQUIRED.
AFTER 48 HOURS...MARIA IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES. THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 11/1500Z 19.0N 64.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 12/0000Z 20.1N 65.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 12/1200Z 21.1N 66.9W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 13/0000Z 21.9N 68.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 13/1200Z 22.9N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 14/1200Z 27.5N 69.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 15/1200Z 34.5N 67.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 16/1200Z 45.0N 57.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145318
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
...CENTER OF MARINA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
TROPICAL STORM MARIA ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142011
1100 AM AST SUN SEP 11 2011
...CENTER OF MARINA PASSING JUST NORTH OF THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...STRONG WINDS REMAIN WELL NORTH OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 64.6W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM NNE OF ST. THOMAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM ENE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
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dwsqos2
Re: ATL: MARIA - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looking at the recon data, 850 mb heights were 1555-1560 m for an entire set of recon obs, and winds were light as well. I wouldn't be shocked to see the center reform.
My this is a fascinating way to spend the peak of the hurricane season.
My this is a fascinating way to spend the peak of the hurricane season.
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Aric Dunn
- Category 5
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- Age: 42
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- Contact:
Looks like the center is shooting out to the west of the convection this morning.. exposed center.... west of forecast point but a good bit.
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Note: If I make a post that is brief. Please refer back to previous posts for the analysis or reasoning. I do not re-write/qoute what my initial post said each time.
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
If there is nothing before... then just ask
Space & Atmospheric Physicist, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University,
I believe the sky is falling...
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Fego
- S2K Supporter
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Re:
Aric Dunn wrote:Looks like the center is shooting out to the west of the convection this morning.. exposed center.... west of forecast point but a good bit.
Waiting for the 11:00 am discussion to see what do they think about it.
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