ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Abdullah]

Explanation of the term "Raw T value" please?

The Dvorak scale is something Meterologists use to calculate the strength of a tropical cyclone while recon isn't possible. 7.0 roughly translates to Category 5
minimum.

[Hurricane Andrew]

In my non-pro opinion, I'd say if the eyewall remains open, he'll probably still peak at 130-140mph. If it closes up, we'll likely see a peak of 150-155mph.

[Evil Jeremy]

I'm quite frightened for DMAX tonight, if this is what we're seeing at 9pm.

[johngaltfla]

Explanation of the term "Raw T value" please?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dvorak_technique

[ouragans]

Could this get to T8.0?

No way a T8.0 happens in the northern GOM.

Until last year, every one was saying "No way a cat.5 can make it to the Lesser Antilles" and we got 2 in less than 2 weeks

[MississippiWx]

I am in awe. Cat 5 is not out of the realm at this point. Good Lord.

[SunnyThoughts]

They are going to have to upgrade this storm at 10 pm. I don't see any way around it. THe people who have NOT left Panama City beach, and surrounding areas need to get out NOW!.

[Jag95]

This is a pretty similar setup to when Ivan approached the northern GOM, and the big question to me is how much of a factor the trough and wind shear will have on Michael, if any. I was scared stiff during that episode. Pensacola and Gulf Shores still got whacked, I know, but the trough and dry continental air did take a toll as he closed in. None of the models predicted it to weaken but it did. Hoping for the best for those in its path.

[Nimbus]

For those of you in the cone I found this surface wind speed utility based off the Euro to be a big help in planning. 60 MPH zone on this chart is pretty serious that is about the speed plywood roof panels start to resonate.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... barbs.html

[bella_may]

I am in awe. Cat 5 is not out of the realm at this point. Good Lord.

Yep. We might be witnessing history tonight.... and not the good kind

[chaser1]

Can his strengthening affect the turn at all?

I would have bet my bottom dollar (even posted just hours ago), that with rapid intensification I believed a turn prematurely to the NNE or NE would occur very shortly after. Well thus far, hasn't happened. Essentially pretty much "north" so far. 'Course, that could change in a moment too. The recent RI might have played a role in temporarily slowing the storm's forward speed just a tad. That could cause it's own set of problems in terms of final landfall too.

[Buck]

Could this get to T8.0?

No way a T8.0 happens in the northern GOM.

Until last year, every one was saying "No way a cat.5 can make it to the Lesser Antilles" and we got 2 in less than 2 weeks

Exactly. Climatology is useful, but doesn't define things. With seasons like 2005 and 2017, anything can happen.

In fact, with the type of storm Florence was, how Michael is shaping up, 3 concurrent storms on October 9, Leslie being crazy and potentially lingering again next week... this year is one for the crazy books too.

[Sciencerocks]

Explanation of the term "Raw T value" please?

The Dvorak scale is something Meterologists use to calculate the strength of a tropical cyclone while recon isn't possible. 7.0 roughly translates to Category 4
minimum.

cat5

[Ken711]

Can his strengthening affect the turn at all?

I would have bet my bottom dollar (even posted just hours ago), that with rapid intensification I believed a turn prematurely to the NNE or NE would occur very shortly after. Well thus far, hasn't happened. Essentially pretty much "north" so far. 'Course, that could change in a moment too. The recent RI might have played a role in temporarily slowing the storm's forward speed just a tad. That could cause it's own set of problems in terms of final landfall too.

Is it on NHC's current forecasted track at the moment?

[Taylormae]

Can his strengthening affect the turn at all?

I would have bet my bottom dollar (even posted just hours ago), that with rapid intensification I believed a turn prematurely to the NNE or NE would occur very shortly after. Well thus far, hasn't happened. Essentially pretty much "north" so far. 'Course, that could change in a moment too. The recent RI might have played a role in temporarily slowing the storm's forward speed just a tad. That could cause it's own set of problems in terms of final landfall too.

Thank you so very much for taking the time to answer my question!
In Pensacola, sitting on the very edge of my seat tonight!

[Hammy]

No way a T8.0 happens in the northern GOM.

Until last year, every one was saying "No way a cat.5 can make it to the Lesser Antilles" and we got 2 in less than 2 weeks

Exactly. Climatology is useful, but doesn't define things. With seasons like 2005 and 2017, anything can happen.

In fact, with the type of storm Florence was, how Michael is shaping up, 3 concurrent storms on October 9, Leslie being crazy and potentially lingering again next week... this year is one for the crazy books too.

Add to this that every single month but June was significantly more active than August.

[Blizzard96x]

Michael is going to have to sort out the southwest eyewall before this can explode... and hopefully it doesn't.

[1900hurricane]

Could this get to T8.0?

No way a T8.0 happens in the northern GOM.

Until last year, every one was saying "No way a cat.5 can make it to the Lesser Antilles" and we got 2 in less than 2 weeks

I'm not sure who said that, but I'd say that is one of the most category 5 prone locations in the entire basin, only after locations in the western Caribbean and maybe The Bahamas. I probably wouldn't call that and having a Haiyan type system that far north a one to one comparison.

[Frank P]

Can his strengthening affect the turn at all?

I would have bet my bottom dollar (even posted just hours ago), that with rapid intensification I believed a turn prematurely to the NNE or NE would occur very shortly after. Well thus far, hasn't happened. Essentially pretty much "north" so far. 'Course, that could change in a moment too. The recent RI might have played a role in temporarily slowing the storm's forward speed just a tad. That could cause it's own set of problems in terms of final landfall too.

Thank you so very much for taking the time to answer my question!
In Pensacola, sitting on the very edge of my seat tonight!

Based on this forecast plot per the radar it looks like Michaeal has about 60-70 miles or so before the turn... (estimated miles)
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[jlauderdal]

Michael is going to have to sort out the southwest eyewall before this can explode... and hopefully it doesn't.

Its a major hurricane, its been exploding all day