Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

NAM kinda shuts the door for anything more W it seems.

I did not trust that anyways, it could be having a hiccup.

Either Way, Springfield, MO (Where my Great-Grandparents are) got absolutely NAMed with 2 Feet of snow, very unlikely but yikes!

How old are you Ice, if you don't mind me asking?

You can see the age below the posting number. (I'm 18)

[Iceresistance]

12z CFSv2 has the coldest past of this cold wave mostly primed for the Midwest, but that cold wave also reaches into Southern Texas as well.

[ElectricStorm]

Local forecast here now calling for a decent chance for some snowflakes here on Saturday. Shouldn't be much at all though and the wind is going to be brutal.

All I'm saying is we better get something because cold with no snow is no bueno.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Local forecast here now calling for a decent chance for some snowflakes here on Saturday. Shouldn't be much at all though and the wind is going to be brutal.

All I'm saying is we better get something because cold with no snow is no bueno.

I don’t particularly care for that last statement. For me, it goes (in order):

Cold with Thunder Sleet/Snow


A chilly Fall day after our first norther

Dry cold


Rain and mid-upper 30s




Spring mildness (70ish with no humidity)






Dry Heat (Arizona or West Texas)


The Gates of Hell






Heat and Humidity (Summer in SE Texas)

[Texas Snow]

Local forecast here now calling for a decent chance for some snowflakes here on Saturday. Shouldn't be much at all though and the wind is going to be brutal.

All I'm saying is we better get something because cold with no snow is no bueno.

I don’t particularly care for that last statement. For me, it goes (in order):

Cold with Thunder Sleet/Snow

A chilly Fall day after our first norther

Dry cold

Rain and mid-upper 30s

Spring mildness (70ish with no humidity)

Dry Heat (Arizona or West Texas)

The Gates of Hell

Heat and Humidity (Summer in SE Texas)

I am right there with you. For summer my dream would be mid 80’s highs with mid 60’s lows with low humidity. Warm enough for summertime activities but cool evenings to comfortably sit out on the porch. I don’t live in the right place for that, yet…

[TropicalTundra]

Local forecast here now calling for a decent chance for some snowflakes here on Saturday. Shouldn't be much at all though and the wind is going to be brutal.

All I'm saying is we better get something because cold with no snow is no bueno.

I don’t particularly care for that last statement. For me, it goes (in order):

Cold with Thunder Sleet/Snow

A chilly Fall day after our first norther

Dry cold

Rain and mid-upper 30s

Spring mildness (70ish with no humidity)

Dry Heat (Arizona or West Texas)

The Gates of Hell

Heat and Humidity (Summer in SE Texas)

I am right there with you. For summer my dream would be mid 80’s highs with mid 60’s lows with low humidity. Warm enough for summertime activities but cool evenings to comfortably sit out on the porch. I don’t live in the right place for that, yet…

When it's summer I sometimes sit in a hot car like it's a sauna. Feels super nice but you can't stay very long since you start to sweat and other things. When it's cold I also like sitting on the porch.

[Cpv17]

Something to track at least:

[wxman22]

The 0Z EURO sure looks interesting in the long range...

[3090]

Euro ensembles are indicating a potentially MAJOR arctic outbreak east of the Rockies for the last week in January

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1481359787258482690

That's way east of the Rockies, mostly east of the Mississippi. Operational Euro doesn't even have below-zero temps for Chicago from this outbreak. Cold air is shifting east out of western Canada, focusing the cold into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and northeast U.S. I don't see the really cold air moving south to Texas.

It is a TREND, being the point! Trending much colder is the point. I think that is what is being missed here. Whether or not the trend continues, is going to be the thing to watch. We’ll see.

[Cpv17]

The 0Z EURO sure looks interesting in the long range...

Yes it does. It’s very rare you see the conservative Euro forecasting a 1056mb high coming into Montana but the question is will that cold air move south or slide east?

[wxman57]

00Z Euro still has no snow for Texas through 10 days and only a brief, light freeze for D-FW (31F) next Friday with mid to upper 30s in SE TX. I'll take that. It also indicates warming in Alaska and the bulk of the cold air moving SE toward the Great Lakes & Ohio Valley, keeping it mostly out of Texas. GFS has a blowtorch building in western Canada beyond 10 days.

By the way, I consider temps of 83-88F with dewpoints in the 50s or 60s to be the most ideal cycling weather. Any temperature below 65F is unthinkable for cycling. Above 100F is okay, just need to take extra water with me. Getting back from a 3-5 hour ride with salt crusted on my face and arms is a great feeling. Sitting in the house with a rainy 40 degrees is not my idea of having fun I need to be outside cycling.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Looks like we have a battle between models. Euro looks locked in for the last two runs, GFS is all over.

[Ntxw]

06z Euro (1hr) and 12z NAM has a band of light snow coming down from Oklahoma between I-20 and Red River around and east of I-35.

It does look like minute shifts in vmax going neutral determines location of trowal and whether it holds together far enough south. Vorticity.

[Cpv17]

Looks like we have a battle between models. Euro looks locked in for the last two runs, GFS is all over.

Yep and the GEFS is mostly east with the cold as well. EPS looks further west.

[rwfromkansas]

I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.

[bubba hotep]

Some nice 700mb changes on the 12z NAM for DFW & NE TX. Also, 3k NAM sounding would support snow.

[Ntxw]

Some nice 700mb changes on the 12z NAM for DFW & NE TX. Also, 3k NAM sounding would support snow.

You always hold your breath on these trowal features for strong ULLs.

[orangeblood]

I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.

Not necessarily, still too early to call that...slight shifts in track can make a big difference. Really active winter period coming up over the next few weeks!

[wxman57]

I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.

I don't thing that's an accurate statement. The air aloft will certainly be cold enough for snow. Moisture will be limited, though. The 3K NAM indicates a thickening cloud deck around 6pm Saturday, which could produce some small snowflakes Saturday evening. I wouldn't bet much money against it. Note that the red dot is near the western edge of precip. I wasn't careful in placing it between Dallas and Ft. Worth. I lived in Fort Worth in the late 1970s while going to college at A&M.

[rwfromkansas]

Oh, guess there is more of a chance than I thought. Will see how things play out. Some mood flakes are better than nothing.