Texas Winter 2012-2013

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Re:

#2161 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:07 pm

ndale wrote:Portastorm looks like Austin nws is trying to tell us not to expect much in Austin.

AROUND THE EDGE OF THIS AREA THERE COULD A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW PARTICULARLY TO THE NORTHEAST INTO BURNET COUNTY...BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION. NOT
EXPECTING ANY WINTER PRECIP SOUTH OF THIS AREA AS BOUNDARY LAYER
WILL BE TOO WARM.


Yeah, I know ... but hey, look at the bright side ... when they do forecast snow, it usually doesn't happen. The odds are in our favor! :lol:

More seriously, the GFS has trended wetter all day for this event. The Euro continues to be somewhat bullish about it as well. I believe the moisture will be there. But this will be one of those classic winter situations where if you're underneath the cold core low, you'll get some winter magic and if you're not, it'll be a bit too warm for anything frozen. It'll all depend on the size and track of the low.
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#2162 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:07 pm

Welcome to the winter from Hell. :lol:

All of a sudden I don't feel so lonely. :cheesy:

You folks must have lost your cotton pickin' minds wishing so hard for snow to
have brought this on......


Do you hear the wolves howling yet?????
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#2163 Postby rkbjunior » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:09 pm

Our favorite tweeting meteorologist, Joe Bastardi, mentioned major blocking is developing and the negative EPO (which I admit to knowing nothing about) in longer term is similar to dam bursting cold outbreaks of December 1983 and January 1985. I know we have some winter weather excitement to look for in the near future but hopefully some of the boards more knowledgeable posters can keep an eye out on the long range for us and keep us up to date on the Stratospheric Warming currently taking place.

December 1983 was the only time my pipes ever froze.
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Re:

#2164 Postby Portastorm » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:10 pm

SaskatchewanScreamer wrote:Welcome to the winter from Hell. :lol:

All of a sudden I don't feel so lonely. :cheesy:

You folks must have lost your cotton pickin' minds wishing so hard for snow to
have brought this on......


Do you hear the wolves howling yet?????


No wolves yet, but the Portastorm Weather Center does want to offer you a job. You can operate our NORTH America satellite office. Judging from your photography subjects and your weather interest, not to mention your supply of a certain vodka, you meet all the criteria! :wink:
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#2165 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:14 pm

My pipes froze i think in 1990 around Christmas time iirc. Just saw the models.... holy moly. So the cold air will be in place, all we can ask for in the long term. Now we need our friend the STJ to pay a visit.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#2166 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:23 pm

Where was the Polar Vortex located in 1899, 1983, 1989? Which would be a likely analog for what's about to occur later this month?
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Re: Re:

#2167 Postby SaskatchewanScreamer » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:24 pm

Portastorm wrote:
SaskatchewanScreamer wrote:Welcome to the winter from Hell. :lol:

All of a sudden I don't feel so lonely. :cheesy:

You folks must have lost your cotton pickin' minds wishing so hard for snow to
have brought this on......


Do you hear the wolves howling yet?????


No wolves yet, but the Portastorm Weather Center does want to offer you a job. You can operate our NORTH America satellite office. Judging from your photography subjects and your weather interest, not to mention your supply of a certain vodka, you meet all the criteria! :wink:


:lol: :lol: :lol:

Yep this winter that Vodka will feel right at home here.

*sigh*

Folks I'd be so nervous down there! Here it is shocking but well known foe.
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#2168 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 02, 2013 6:39 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Where was the Polar Vortex located in 1899, 1983, 1989? Which would be a likely analog for what's about to occur later this month?


All the set ups are quite similar. Vortex around the Hudson Bay and Canada is frigid the same beneath -AO most of the early winter, 2011 cold snap was not that different to those either (Oklahoma recorded all time record low -30+!) and 2012's December as we just saw was extremely negative. The thing that separates each one of them for us south of the vortex is the building -EPO. The stronger the -EPO the bigger the high pressure behind the vortex to drive the cold south. The bigger the high, the bigger the chunk of cold. As the days ahead get near, track the highs on the models coming down from the Arctic into NW Canada

Both were 1060+ HP's and I'm sure 1899 was even stronger, maybe 1070+
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#2169 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:12 pm

Ntxw wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:Where was the Polar Vortex located in 1899, 1983, 1989? Which would be a likely analog for what's about to occur later this month?


All the set ups are quite similar. Vortex around the Hudson Bay and Canada is frigid the same beneath -AO most of the early winter, 2011 cold snap was not that different to those either (Oklahoma recorded all time record low -30+!) and 2012's December as we just saw was extremely negative. The thing that separates each one of them for us south of the vortex is the building -EPO. The stronger the -EPO the bigger the high pressure behind the vortex to drive the cold south. The bigger the high, the bigger the chunk of cold. As the days ahead get near, track the highs on the models coming down from the Arctic into NW Canada

Both were 1060+ HP's and I'm sure 1899 was even stronger, maybe 1070+


1070? ouch! Thanks for you insight and keep us updated.
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#2170 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:34 pm

Ahh, starting our yearly flirtation with the "big one" kind of cold snap a little bit early this year! :D

I posted this last year when the McFarland signature got brought up and references to 1983 and 1989 were being tossed around:

"I was in college at UNT during the 1989 outbreak. It was -2 at my parent's house on Christmas morning that year. There was also a huge fire at the Beall's Department Store in Denison on Christmas Eve with the mercury hovering around 12 degrees. The fireman were caked in solid ice and were taking shifts going into a nearby store for hot chocolate, coffee, to warm up, and to break the ice off their coats and gear. Unfortunately, it was a multi-alarm fire that burned down a three story department store and cost one fire-fighter his life.

I was a senior in high school during the December 1983 outbreak. Snow fell here in Denison on December 14 and very early on the 15th (I think we had 6-7" at my house) and it ushered in the arctic attack. Repeated arctic frontal passages kept the temperature below 32 degrees for 296 consecutive hours in Dallas and about the same number of hours here in the Red River Valley. We had snow on the ground until New Years.

Water mains froze and burst, pipes burst in many homes, there were a number of fires from people trying to heat their houses, and many smaller lakes froze over completely to the point you could walk or skate on them.

At 89,000-acre Lake Texoma, only the main lake body/river channel remained totally ice free. All of Texoma's lake arms, creek channels, and backwaters were frozen solid with several inches of ice. I tried to go duck hunting and three of us couldn't even crack the ice. Another older friend slid his airboat across the ice to reach an open patch of water during that spell."
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#2171 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:36 pm

Also posted this story by Houston Chronicle outdoors writer Shannon Tompkins to provide some historical perspective about the kind of cold wave we could be potentially talking about:

-----
Lengthy read that I'll post in three parts. But it's worth the read because it provides plenty of historical perspective courtesy of Houston Chronicle outdoors writer Shannon Thompkins. This 2003 story recalls the 1983 and 1989 freezes along the Texas Gulf Coast. Amazing tales told below...

-----

Christmas 1983 freeze left heavy mark on Texas coastal fisheries

By SHANNON TOMPKINS

AUTUMN'S official final day in 1983 became the unofficial first day of a new reality for Texas coastal fisheries resources, the people who manage them and the Texans who enjoy them.

Events that began that day, 20 years ago this week, accelerated changes in Texas coastal fisheries management philosophy, forced anglers to accept the fragility of coastal resources and left wounds in the inshore fishery that may never heal.

"It changed everything," Gene McCarty, former director of coastal fisheries for Texas Parks and Wildlife Department and current chief of staff for the agency, said of what has become known as the Christmas '83 Freeze.

Dec. 21, 1983, dawned seasonably mild with a light, humid southeast wind blowing from the Gulf.

That afternoon, an arctic cold front of epic strength rushed south over Texas, bringing screaming north wind, sleet and dropping temperatures.

Temperature slipped below freezing in Houston the afternoon of Dec. 22, and did not rise above that mark for five days -- a record that still stands.

The Texas coast was locked in one of the most severe, persistent freezes in more than a century.

Christmas morning, Houston recorded a low of 11 degrees. Galveston registered 14 degrees. It was 6 below zero in Dallas, and 13 in Del Rio.

"It was 15 degrees in Palacios," said Paul Hammerschmidt, who in 1983 was a TPWD coastal fisheries biologist based in Port O'Connor. "It was warmer in Anchorage, Alaska."

Another brutal arctic cold front just before New Year's Day reinforced the cold, and kept temperatures below or near freezing for several more days.

"I remember getting in a net skiff with a commercial fisherman in Flour Bluff (near Corpus Christi) on Jan. 2 and going down to Baffin Bay," said Ed Hegen, then a TPWD coastal fisheries biologist working out of Rockport. "It was unbelievably cold. I don't think I've thawed out since then."

What Hegen, now Lower Texas Coast regional director for TPWD's coastal fisheries division, saw in Baffin Bay that day mirrored what other TPWD coastal fisheries staff witnessed when they went afield to survey the bays.

"There were windrows of dead fish everywhere," Hegen recalled. "They were stacked for yards along the shorelines. Spotted seatrout, redfish, drum -- every species in the bay."

The shallow bay was clear as glass, Hegen said. Visible on the bay floor was a carpet of dead fish at least equal to the numbers stacked against the windward shores and floating in sheets on the surface.
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2172 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:37 pm

(Part II)

Texas inshore marine fisheries had been caught in a frigid, fatal trap. Evolved for life in a temperate, even tropical environment, Texas marine life is not built to endure severe cold. Caught in water about 45 degrees or lower for more than a day, they die. Death can come from suffocation -- the metabolism of the cold-blooded fish slows to the point they can't extract oxygen from the water. Or they can suffer frostbite, having the flesh of fins, tails and other extremities literally frozen.

"The severity and duration of the '83 freeze were what made it so deadly," said Hammerschmidt, now program director of regulations for TPWD's coastal fisheries division.

Fisheries biologists knew fish were dying, but they couldn't get on the water to assess the impact until the worst of the weather had passed.

"The bays literally froze over," Hammerschmidt said. "We couldn't get boats in the water."

"There was ice 4 inches thick for 100 yards off the shore (of the Upper Laguna Madre)," Hegen remembers. "We had to wait until it began breaking up to get on the water."

TPWD scrambled coastal fisheries staff to begin assessing the freeze's impact, surveying the bays from boats, on foot and from the air.

It was worse than they could imagine.

The first place Hammerschmidt inspected was the shallows of the San Antonio and Espiritu Santo bays.

"I went into Shoalwater Bay and it was covered with dead fish -- redfish stacked in heaps like cordwood."

The beach of Matagorda Island was littered with carcasses of adult redfish and the occasional sea turtle.

Texas bays have always seen occasional freeze-triggered fish kills. But almost all during the 20th Century had been relatively minor or affected only portions of the Texas coast.

The Christmas '83 Freeze was different. It hammered the entire Texas coast, from Sabine Pass to Port Isabel.
Last edited by Texas Snowman on Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#2173 Postby Texas Snowman » Wed Jan 02, 2013 7:37 pm

(Part III)

TPWD coastal fisheries biologists began counting dead fish, using sampling techniques they had developed as part of standardized fish population research the agency had begun in 1975. At the time it was the most avant-garde fisheries work in the nation.

The tally was breathtaking. TPWD estimated the freeze killed more than 20 million coastal finfish. The number of invertebrate marine life -- shrimp, crab, etc. -- lost was estimated at more than one-billion organisms.

Not since 1952 had Texas seen such a widespread and devastating freeze-caused fish kill.

In 1952, Texas fisheries managers could do little to address the effects of such a crippling blow to coastal fisheries. Coastal fisheries were relatively lightly utilized and the Texas Game, Fish and Oyster Commission (precursor to TPWD) was hamstrung by political realities of the day.

But 1983 was different.

Earlier that year, the Texas Legislature had passed the Uniform Wildlife Regulatory Act, a watershed piece of legislation that gave TPWD authority to set statewide fishing and hunting regulations.

(Prior to the law, counties could, and often did, set their own hunting and fishing regulations, even if in direct conflict with state regulations, blunting scientific management efforts.)

Also, improved science, a move toward proactive management of fisheries and a public becoming increasingly aware of pressure on coastal resources set the stage for what happened in the wake of the '83 freeze.

Almost immediately, the Texas Parks and Wildlife Commission moved to impose more conservative recreational and commercial fishing regulations.

Fisheries needed the protection.

Anglers needed no convincing of that. The bays were empty.

But TPWD used its sampling protocols to document the massive hole the freeze left in coastal fisheries.

"The freeze proved the value of our long-term monitoring programs,"
Hammerschmidt said. "We could document the state of the fisheries to justify management moves and track their effectiveness."

"That freeze was the thing that shaped our coastal fisheries management philosophy, and turned the focus on conservation," said Gene McCarty. "We began looking at the long-term, and being proactive instead of reactive. It was the direction we were heading, but the freeze accelerated things."

When the freeze hit, McCarty was working at the just-opened John Wilson Fish Hatchery near Corpus Christi, the first hatchery in the nation devoted to producing inshore marine fish for stocking into coastal waters.

The hatchery's focus was on redfish, a species that even before the freeze had been decimated by overfishing.

"Prior to the freeze, we were in the research and assessment mode, just getting our feet on the ground and stocking fish only in San Antonio and Espiritu Santo bays," McCarty said. "After the freeze, we immediately went statewide, stocking redfish in every bay on the coast."

"The freeze kicked our hatchery program into high gear," Hegen said. "We had been initially working just with redfish, but we started doing the first really serious research into raising trout because of the freeze."

Coastal fishing was horrible in 1984 and into '85. But the trout and redfish fisheries slowly improved, statewide.

Then, in 1989, two killer freezes -- in February and another at Christmas -- killed millions more coastal fish.

But the damage from those freezes totaled about half the casualties of the '83 freeze. TPWD imposed slightly tighter fishing regulations, worked on habitat and stocking. It helped that, in 1988, all netting had been banned from coastal waters, a move justified by TPWD's monitoring.

The coastal fishery recovered from those '89 freezes much quicker than in '83.

"That faster recovery is directly related to lessons we learned from the '83 freeze," Hammerschmidt said.
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#2174 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 02, 2013 8:11 pm

North Texas and Central Texas are still not out of game for snow. SREF and some ensemble members continue to advertise heavier bands of precip that may survive the track out of W Texas. It's plenty cold in North Texas and GFS still wanted to advertise a threat through Saturday morning as moisture tries to surge north from SE Texas. Austin is more marginal with temperatures but the front end might deliver something
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#2175 Postby Ntxw » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:11 pm

0z NAM is bringing a large shield of snow to west and parts north Texas. Areas just west/NW of Austin as well

Image
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#2176 Postby DonWrk » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:17 pm

This might get interesting.
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#2177 Postby Rgv20 » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:34 pm

Its a cold 43F at my backyard...had light rain all day! :D With forecast lows of 38 and 39 it looks like it will be too warm for any winter weather...still plenty cold for me! :cold:


I can see why there is a lot of excitement for potentially colder weather coming in the second half of the month. 12zGFS Ensembles Means are very cold in the country's mid section on days 11 thru 15..


Image



12zGFS Ensemble Means Day 12 (January 14) Temperature Anomalies..COLD!

Image
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#2178 Postby ROCK » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:40 pm

:uarrow: the 18Z GFS agrees......very cold signals in the long range. With the GFS always seemly to under do artic air masses this could get interesting for some of us down here in SETX. Not so much wintery precip but more so extreme cold.

The 83 freeze was brutal as my family lost cars. Engine blocks cracked. Good write up on the Galveston Bay loss of fish. Hate to see that happen again. I guess its time to head over to Lowes in a few days and get insulation for the outside spickets. Going to lose the tropical plants once again....ugh
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#2179 Postby Longhornmaniac8 » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:47 pm

So it seems as though the area forecasters have been predicating their lack of precip. on the models, which over the last couple of days seem to be trending toward more and more available moisture tomorrow night/Friday morning. In y'alls experience, is it likely that beginning tonight, we'll see more discussion of possible frozen precip in the area forecasts?

Also, how do surface temperatures look in the EWX region?

Thanks!

Cheers,
Cameron
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Re: Texas Winter 2012-2013

#2180 Postby iorange55 » Wed Jan 02, 2013 9:49 pm

Geez, Texas might get some pretty good snowfall in the coming days (most of which will be a welcomed surprise) and we are more than likely going to have some serious cold hitting us mid-month.

Remember when I canceled winter a month or so ago? :oops:
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