ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[Nederlander]

For some reason I heard the nhc will upgrade this to 70mph on TV...SERIOUSLY doubt that.

Lol, where did you here that? That is a very irresponsible statement if such a thing is shown on public media.

I guess they will make use of the word fluctuating to keep both doors open.

Well, should they downgrade it? Riptide and I are thinking of that.

Highly doubt it. Recon supports weak TS.

[HurricaneAndrew92]

I think nhc will keep it the same...thats my opinion. If wunderground tropical has been updated.

[cheezyWXguy]

Maximum SW was 55mph and 1004 for pressure according to wunderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tr ... 05_hd.html

dont rely on that map, its pretty bad. I dont think ive ever actually seen it report accurately

[Extratropical94]

For some reason I heard the nhc will upgrade this to 70mph on TV...SERIOUSLY doubt that.

Lol, where did you here that? That is a very irresponsible statement if such a thing is shown on public media.

I guess they will make use of the word fluctuating to keep both doors open.

Well, should they downgrade it? Riptide and I are thinking of that.

I do also think that 50 knots is simply not the right intensity for Ernesto right now. If I was the NHC I would put the intensity at 40 or 45 knots to avoid very big fluctuations but to show that he is clearly not strengthening at the moment. Even though some areas need to be warned because a developing storm is headed their way, the current intensity value should display the real current strength of this storm. Adjustments to show tendencies, such as the expectation of a cane tomorrow, can also be done in the forecast section, but for now this is nothing more than a low-end TS.

Of course, this is only my personal opinion and should not be taken as an official guideline or when making any important decisions.

Edit:

Okay, nevermind guys, the plane found some 50+ knot flight level winds. I guess we can end the downgrade discussion.

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041414
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 26 20120804
140530 1441N 06805W 8425 01568 0109 +143 +090 121029 031 049 025 00
140600 1442N 06804W 8427 01570 0115 +138 +086 119029 031 050 017 00
140630 1443N 06803W 8423 01570 0109 +148 +083 111033 035 044 017 00
140700 1444N 06802W 8430 01565 0100 +165 +081 113035 036 029 006 00
140730 1445N 06800W 8428 01570 0106 +160 +082 116038 040 033 001 00
140800 1446N 06759W 8427 01571 0102 +165 +085 119040 041 037 001 00
140830 1448N 06758W 8426 01573 0102 +168 +088 120041 042 040 001 00
140900 1449N 06757W 8428 01571 0101 +170 +091 120041 043 041 001 00
140930 1450N 06756W 8429 01572 0103 +167 +094 121040 040 041 001 00
141000 1451N 06755W 8436 01562 0101 +169 +095 120040 040 039 000 00
141030 1452N 06754W 8429 01573 0106 +166 +096 117041 043 038 001 00
141100 1453N 06753W 8431 01570 0102 +171 +097 118045 046 039 001 00
141130 1454N 06751W 8428 01573 0100 +176 +097 123047 047 040 001 00
141200 1455N 06750W 8435 01570 0098 +184 +098 120046 047 041 003 00
141230 1456N 06749W 8426 01579 0098 +182 +099 123045 046 041 001 00
141300 1457N 06748W 8429 01576 0104 +174 +100 132048 049 041 002 00
141330 1458N 06747W 8432 01576 0110 +168 +099 135050 051 040 001 00
141400 1459N 06746W 8422 01584 0111 +167 +098 137051 052 040 002 02
141430 1501N 06745W 8426 01581 0114 +165 +097 139052 053 039 000 00
141500 1502N 06743W 8427 01582 0115 +165 +096 142051 053 038 002 00
$$
;

[rockyman]

6z GFDL at 126 hours:

[HurricaneAndrew92]

40,50 or 60 is our debate...and go!

[Blinhart]

Well they just found 40 kt winds, so they will stay at least with 40 kts.

[Ntxw]

Ernesto is in the eastern half of the Carib folks aka graveyard of the Atlantic. Amazing it has survived at all thus far. Ups and downs will continue with gradual strengthening maybe. We've seen this game before, NW Carib is where the factory is with best conditions. Patience

[brunota2003]

I would discount that 50 SFMR reading. It jumped from 37 to 49 to 50 and back down...and the rain rates were really high in that area (17 to 25), so most likely inflated by the rain.

[Nederlander]

Well they just found 40 kt winds, so they will stay at least with 40 kts.

they found 50kts. as well.. Lesson learned: we should wait until they finish before deciding what the NHC should do..

[littlevince]

000
URNT15 KNHC 041424
AF309 0405A ERNESTO HDOB 27 20120804
141530 1503N 06742W 8427 01583 0116 +165 +094 140051 052 038 002 00
141600 1504N 06741W 8428 01584 0118 +165 +094 139051 052 043 001 00
141630 1505N 06740W 8429 01582 0119 +165 +094 138052 052 042 001 00
141700 1506N 06739W 8426 01587 0117 +168 +094 138051 052 041 001 00
141730 1507N 06737W 8430 01581 0120 +163 +095 137049 050 039 002 00
141800 1509N 06736W 8429 01584 0118 +166 +095 135048 048 040 000 03
141830 1510N 06735W 8426 01588 0123 +162 +096 135047 048 039 002 00
141900 1511N 06734W 8428 01587 0126 +157 +095 135047 048 039 002 00
141930 1512N 06733W 8428 01587 0137 +141 +094 135048 049 040 004 00
142000 1513N 06731W 8429 01588 0129 +156 +091 133047 048 041 001 00
142030 1514N 06730W 8428 01589 0127 +161 +090 133047 049 042 001 00
142100 1515N 06729W 8429 01591 0132 +153 +091 133047 048 041 001 00
142130 1516N 06728W 8427 01591 0128 +161 +091 132046 048 041 001 00
142200 1517N 06727W 8429 01592 0126 +167 +092 132047 048 038 002 00
142230 1519N 06726W 8428 01592 0126 +166 +093 131047 048 038 001 00
142300 1520N 06724W 8430 01591 0129 +164 +094 132047 047 037 001 00
142330 1521N 06723W 8429 01591 0130 +163 +095 133048 050 037 002 00
142400 1522N 06722W 8429 01591 0130 +163 +095 135050 051 038 001 00
142430 1523N 06721W 8430 01592 0131 +160 +096 136049 051 037 002 00
142500 1524N 06720W 8432 01592 0131 +161 +095 135048 049 036 000 00
$$
;

[cycloneye]

Well they just found 40 kt winds, so they will stay at least with 40 kts.

they found 50kts. as well.. Lesson learned: we should wait until they finish before deciding what the NHC should do..

Those are valid.

053 038 002 00

[pcolaman]

Looks to me that there is a draw to the nw of the overall structure of the storm. I still feel that the weakness will be felt and move into the gulf .

[mcheer23]

50kts is still the same...60mph.. Best track showed 50 mph..

If this makes it through the dry air alright then model shifts should begin.

[cheezyWXguy]

Well they just found 40 kt winds, so they will stay at least with 40 kts.

looks like it was a few 50's. but conversion to the surface likely means a 45kt storm, at least for the moment. This thing has a notorious habit of looking terrible in the morning and improving as the day goes on, which is what it already appears to be doing. Probably wont be strengthening much today, but as long as nothing dramatic happens tomorrow and so on should be back on track.

[WeatherGuesser]

Lesson learned: we should wait until they finish before deciding what the NHC should do..

Or just stop rambling and speculating and let them do their job.

[brunota2003]

The 50 knot SFMR reading occurred in an area of heavy rains, so it is possible that they were inflated by the rains. The ones in the 40 to 43 knot range seem more reasonable...for now.

[littlevince]

000
URNT12 KNHC 041427
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052012
A. 04/13:56:00Z
B. 14 deg 18 min N
068 deg 27 min W
C. 850 mb 1483 m
D. 22 kt
E. 193 deg 5 nm
F. 284 deg 17 kt
G. 209 deg 9 nm
H. 1008 mb
I. 18 C / 1524 m
J. 19 C / 1530 m
K. 9 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 08
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0405A ERNESTO OB 11
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 53 KT NE QUAD 14:14:30Z

[Nederlander]

Looks to me that there is a draw to the nw of the overall structure of the storm. I still feel that the weakness will be felt and move into the gulf .

dry air getting entrained? That's what it looks like to me..