ATL: IRMA - Models
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I think follow 591 or greater isobar lines, that's what blocks... Maybe I'm wrong...
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Never settle and focus in on one model run!! Too much can change , especially when you have the dynamics of the ridge/trough placements pertaining to Irma.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:47 am, edited 1 time in total.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
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AxaltaRacing24
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AutoPenalti
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Drive through it!
Not again...
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
That movement straight north into the ridge is questionable to me...can a Promet explain why it is showing that?
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The Enthusiast
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AxaltaRacing24
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weathaguyry
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
300 hours, landfall in Rhode Island
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_46.png
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2017090112/gfs_mslp_wind_neus_46.png
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My posts are only my opinions and NOT official forecasts. For official forecasts, consult the National Hurricane Center or the National Weather Service.
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
hypothetically if it missed the first trough and that second trough wasn't there, then it'd be straight into the coast under the building ridge over Canada, yeah?
Last edited by M3gaMatch on Fri Sep 01, 2017 11:55 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Irma at a crossroad @200 hrs... Choose to go N, but not a sharp recurve...
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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
CMC came significantly east...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Still concerned about a possible Isabel track but 8-10 days out the models just aren't that good on future track.
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northjaxpro
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Hurricane Andrew wrote:That movement straight north into the ridge is questionable to me...can a Promet explain why it is showing that?
Yeah I agree. I have seen the GFS do this before as well plowing systems through a massive ridge. Physics alone does not justify such thing happening.
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NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
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hohnywx
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
AxaltaRacing24 wrote:Takes it into what used to be NYC
[i mg]https://i.imgur.com/LOWHw6H.png[/img]
That would be Boston...
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
That ridge looks like it could push it into the NC/VA border which I've been afraid is the track it could take. Shades of Isabel.
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Today's JMA at 72 hours...Significantly faster and stronger than yesterday's 12z
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Hurricane Andrew
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
I still want to see the ECM come back west before I buy any re-trend, but at this point, I am in doubt of the GFS's solution.
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Spacecoast
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
Another newby question:
I know the TVCN is a consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI).
My question is it equally weighted 20% each among those five, or is there more weight given to Euro?
I know the TVCN is a consensus of at least two of: AVNI / EMXI / HWFI / CTCI / EGRI).
My question is it equally weighted 20% each among those five, or is there more weight given to Euro?
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
To be honest with you today's run of the CMC makes as much sense as I've seen yet. Close call for Florida and then up to the north.
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Fourth Generation Florida Native
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Personal Storm History: David 79, Andrew 92, Erin 95, Floyd 99, Irene 99, Frances 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, Matthew 16, Irma 17, Ian 22, Nicole 22, Milton 24
Re: ATL: IRMA - Models
SouthFLTropics wrote:To be honest with you today's run of the CMC makes as much sense as I've seen yet. Close call for Florida and then up to the north.
How close does it get to FL before going North? Do you know if the CMC has trended east/west compared to previous runs?
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