ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

[Monsoonjr99]

Don't know why y'all saying the SW eyewall is still open. Didn't a microwave pass from an hour ago show it closed?

[Condor]

Can his strengthening affect the turn at all?

I would have bet my bottom dollar (even posted just hours ago), that with rapid intensification I believed a turn prematurely to the NNE or NE would occur very shortly after. Well thus far, hasn't happened. Essentially pretty much "north" so far. 'Course, that could change in a moment too. The recent RI might have played a role in temporarily slowing the storm's forward speed just a tad. That could cause it's own set of problems in terms of final landfall too.

Thank you so very much for taking the time to answer my question!
In Pensacola, sitting on the very edge of my seat tonight!

Be safe! Hoping for the best.

[SunnyThoughts]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

Still got time to go dude. IF you feel you need to go...go! This is such a dangerous situation, I would NOT stay if I had any doubt at all.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

You still have time. At a minimum, you will likely see several feet of surge and sustained winds of TS or higher force for many hours. You are in Destin? Head inland a bit.

[johngaltfla]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

You have time, but not much. IF you're bugging out, go NW.

[jdjaguar]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

Leave now.

[SeaBrz_FL]

They are going to have to upgrade this storm at 10 pm. I don't see any way around it. THe people who have NOT left Panama City beach, and surrounding areas need to get out NOW!.

I am literally sick to my stomach reading and hearing about the people that chose to stay. Just heartbreaking.

https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politi ... harms-way/

[Condor]

Can I get a second set of eyes on the microwave ? Get another opinion if the eye wall has closed.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

[MacTavish]

I would have bet my bottom dollar (even posted just hours ago), that with rapid intensification I believed a turn prematurely to the NNE or NE would occur very shortly after. Well thus far, hasn't happened. Essentially pretty much "north" so far. 'Course, that could change in a moment too. The recent RI might have played a role in temporarily slowing the storm's forward speed just a tad. That could cause it's own set of problems in terms of final landfall too.

Thank you so very much for taking the time to answer my question!
In Pensacola, sitting on the very edge of my seat tonight!

Based on this forecast plot per the radar it looks like Michaeal has about 60-70 miles or so before the turn... (estimated miles)
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Looking at that, it might be starting the turn now.

[StormPyrate]

Don't know why y'all saying the SW eyewall is still open. Didn't a microwave pass from an hour ago show it closed?

recon reported it open a little while ago, read back a couple pages

[Evil Jeremy]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

You have been under a mandatory evacuation order for over 24 hours.

[tigerz3030]

so I live in Valdosta. I thought we were far enough inland but as this thing strengthens I’m starting to worry a lot. What should we be expecting and when? Thank you

[SunnyThoughts]

Im sitting here about 15 miles east of Pensacola, Im watching for this turn...let me tell you...I can get ready, grab my dogs and my valuables and get outta dodge WAY quck if that turn doesn't happen by say 5 am or so.

[chaser1]

Can his strengthening affect the turn at all?

I would have bet my bottom dollar (even posted just hours ago), that with rapid intensification I believed a turn prematurely to the NNE or NE would occur very shortly after. Well thus far, hasn't happened. Essentially pretty much "north" so far. 'Course, that could change in a moment too. The recent RI might have played a role in temporarily slowing the storm's forward speed just a tad. That could cause it's own set of problems in terms of final landfall too.

Is it on NHC's current forecasted track at the moment?

Yes, although I haven't checked to see if it is "time-wise".

[dizzyfish]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

Are you seriously still there? I saw several peeps tell you to leave earlier today. I'm an old lady so let's pretend I'm your Grandma.
LEAVE NOW.

Dang dude!

[Hammy]

Thank you so very much for taking the time to answer my question!
In Pensacola, sitting on the very edge of my seat tonight!

Based on this forecast plot per the radar it looks like Michaeal has about 60-70 miles or so before the turn... (estimated miles)
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

Looking at that, it might be starting the turn now.

The intensification and apparent shear resistence could be causing the upper winds to push the track a bit to the right.

[supercane4867]

Looks like 00z best track is revised down to 949mb.

AL, 14, 2018101000, , BEST, 0, 266N, 865W, 110, 949, HU,

[SeaBrz_FL]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

You still have time. At a minimum, you will likely see several feet of surge and sustained winds of TS or higher force for many hours. You are in Destin? Head inland a bit.

Definitely get off of that sandbar you live on!

[Nimbus]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

Still got time to go dude. IF you feel you need to go...go! This is such a dangerous situation, I would NOT stay if I had any doubt at all.

https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/fl ... barbs.html

I rode out Irma without any shingle damage, but taht was after checking the surface wind chart.