NATL: MELISSA - Aftermath - Discussion: Josh Morgerman video of Melissa is up

[Beef Stew]

It’s going to be quite close for recon before landfall. And while looks can be deceiving, Melissa looks like she may well be intensifying…

[aspen]

Melissa’s position seems to be about 1 hr ahead of the 06z HAFS-A, so landfall is probably going to be around 14z (10am). Hoping recon can get there in time.

If there’s the tiniest silver lining to any of this, at least Melissa isn’t a nighttime landfall.

[kevin]

About 80 more minutes until recon should be at the center of Melissa. If Melissa's current movement holds it should be around 17.50N/78.15W so recon should still be there well before landfall and might even be able to perform 2 passes before landfall.

[michelinj]

Recon is probably 2 hours away so I think we'll have time for a pass or two before landfall. The NOAA plane coming from FL however? Think that'll be too late now. Still good to get some data though

[Beef Stew]

Lightning is really exploding in the eyewall, concurrent with continued smoothing on IR. She very well may end up intensifying right up to landfall like many of the recent HAFS runs were predicting. I guess we'll see when recon arrives.

[Nimbus]

It's hard to tell for sure but just looking at satellite I think Melissa is moving faster than expected. We may be looking at a landfall before 9-10am.

Core winds will be reaching Black river this morning so people would have to evacuate WNW to concrete high ground shelter in Montego bay now or shelter in place. Landfall this afternoon.

[GCANE]

Ryan is Live
2hrs 14min to landfall

https://www.youtube.com/live/qitHKtkqN_ ... jK4jnt-IPG

[aspen]

About 80 more minutes until recon should be at the center of Melissa. If Melissa's current movement holds it should be around 17.50N/78.15W so recon should still be there well before landfall and might even be able to perform 2 passes before landfall.

I get 17.4-17.5N and 78.12W based on its movement between 5:55z (16.9N/78.5W) and 10:45z (17.3N/78.2W). Even assuming it’s a little faster, it should still be off the coast when recon arrives.

[TheHurricaneGod]

Latest WV eye temp is -3.39C. Warmest yet

-3.1C!

Edit: Up to -3.1C again just now.

[ATDoel]

Looks like the eye is growing larger? I thought they usually constricted before landfall

[Hurricane2022]

 https://x.com/TheSteveCop/status/1983126666932109425

 https://x.com/PettusWX/status/1983130691404480557

[michelinj]

Looks like the eye is growing larger? I thought they usually constricted before landfall

I think it's due to completion of an eyewall merger this morning, unfortunately probably means it's strengthening again.

[MEANINGLESS_NUMBERS]

Latest WV eye temp is -3.39C. Warmest yet

-3.1C! https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1083741758648766484/1432687267851407450/goes19_g19meso1_wv_20251028110428.png?ex=6901f57e&is=6900a3fe&hm=1b17ca0e0c0554449fef06d73d6534e80f0d2eab47bb90179f29e6b64e70f1d3&=&format=webp&quality=lossless&width=853&height=824

Edit: Up to -3.1C again just now.

This is a historically intense storm. For landfall to be happening at its absolute peak is so unfortunate

[Kazmit]

C’mon recon…

[Beef Stew]

Looks like the eye is growing larger? I thought they usually constricted before landfall

The eye was contracting late last night/early this morning, but over the past few hours seems to have stabilized if not outright expanded. My thought is Melissa underwent an eyewall meld in the early morning hours, and recently has stabilized following this, and may now even be strengthening again.

[Kazmit]

Latest WV eye temp is -3.39C. Warmest yet

-3.1C! https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/1083741758648766484/1432687267851407450/goes19_g19meso1_wv_20251028110428.png?ex=6901f57e&is=6900a3fe&hm=1b17ca0e0c0554449fef06d73d6534e80f0d2eab47bb90179f29e6b64e70f1d3&=&format=webp&quality=lossless&width=853&height=824

Edit: Up to -3.1C again just now.

This is a historically intense storm. For landfall to be happening at its absolute peak is so unfortunate

I think, given its satellite appearance and landfall near peak intensity, that Melissa will be referred to as the “Haiyan of the Atlantic” in years to come.

[grapealcoholic]

best the storm has ever looked

next couple hours will be interesting

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If there was an EWRC last night, it appears to have finished at the worst moment - Melissa appears to be making one final push for peak intensity. CDO temps aren't quite as cool but it is much more round with the eye as clear as it's ever been.

[GCANE]

Eye does appear to be growing before landfall.
This is the most intense lightning rate I have seen so far.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/ ... itgefs=Off

[michelinj]

If there was an EWRC last night, it appears to have finished at the worst moment - Melissa appears to be making one final push for peak intensity. CDO temps aren't quite as cool but it is much more round with the eye as clear as it's ever been.

https://i.imgur.com/B2P3sF7.png

The sun is coming up at the moment and probably causing that slightly less cool CDO, no reflection on the storm I'd imagine, unfortunately