ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[jdjaguar]

Im sitting here about 15 miles east of Pensacola, Im watching for this turn...let me tell you...I can get ready, grab my dogs and my valuables and get outta dodge WAY quck if that turn doesn't happen by say 5 am or so.

You and countless others.

Roads are already jammed

[Hurricane Andrew]

Can I get a second set of eyes on the microwave ? Get another opinion if the eye wall has closed.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

The problem with these, as I learned recently, is they extrapolate the data between microwave passes. The only hard data is the pass itself, so go off of those only. Between passes, we have recon VDMs; at last report, both NOAA2 and AF301 (who has since left the storm) reported the eyewall as open in the SW.

[Taylormae]

Im sitting here about 15 miles east of Pensacola, Im watching for this turn...let me tell you...I can get ready, grab my dogs and my valuables and get outta dodge WAY quck if that turn doesn't happen by say 5 am or so.

Same!
Except I have 3 kids, a husband and 2 cats Can’t say I’m not a little scared. Just way too close for any sort of comfort.

[SeaBrz_FL]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

Are you seriously still there? I saw several peeps tell you to leave earlier today. I'm an old lady so let's pretend I'm your Grandma.
LEAVE NOW.

Dang dude!

I'm a grandma, too. Maybe this will do it: If you are not going to leave RIGHT NOW, then write your name and SS# on the inside of your forearm with a permanent marker. XOXO

[Abdullah]

9 millibars from Florence.

[abajan]

I think it has a good chance at 130 kts by morning. It's really taking off on satellite.

I honestly agree...I know people who did not evacuate SE of PCB. I just called them and asked them evacuate. They wont leave. Prayed 4 them....

That's about as much as we can do for them. I could never figure why people like to play with their lives like that. Just today, I was watching a clip where some guy was the only person to climb a particularly steep and dangerous mountain, without any safety gear. To me, that's just crazy. If he'd done it to rescue someone, that would've been a different matter.

[ronyan]

I know a guy that's riding it out in Destin, he owns several properties there. Afraid he'll lose a lot.

[johngaltfla]

so I live in Valdosta. I thought we were far enough inland but as this thing strengthens I’m starting to worry a lot. What should we be expecting and when? Thank you

At a minimum, deluges of rain and tropical storm force winds; a lot depends on how sharp the turn to the NE is. At the worst, hurricane force winds and gusts with heavy rain and power out for days. Based on a track with the right quadrant going over your area tornadoes are going to be a real problem tomorrow. Stock up tonight if you can at the Wally World or wherever you can, if you have not already.

[Condor]

Can I get a second set of eyes on the microwave ? Get another opinion if the eye wall has closed.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

The problem with these, as I learned recently, is they extrapolate the data between microwave passes. The only hard data is the pass itself, so go off of those only. Between passes, we have recon VDMs; at last report, both NOAA2 and AF301 (who has since left the storm) reported the eyewall as open in the SW.

Thank you for the information. You have somewhere I can go and read the actual reports from the recon?

[weathermimmi]

A wobble would be all it takes to make a huge difference, if your gut is thinking it, it must mean you need to go, gas stations are out of gas in Fort Walton tonight so bring a extra can if you leave. Many hotels are full as well. Make a plan and don't just be on the road.

[baygirl_1]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

There’s still time to leave and there are hotel rooms still available in Pensacola & Mobile. Be safe!

[TexasF6]

Can I get a second set of eyes on the microwave ? Get another opinion if the eye wall has closed.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimtc/2018_14L/web/basicGifDisplay.html

The problem with these, as I learned recently, is they extrapolate the data between microwave passes. The only hard data is the pass itself, so go off of those only. Between passes, we have recon VDMs; at last report, both NOAA2 and AF301 (who has since left the storm) reported the eyewall as open in the SW.

Thank you for the information. You have somewhere I can go and read the actual reports from the recon?

Recon Thread Here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120033

[chaser1]

This is making me think I should have evaluated

You still have time. At a minimum, you will likely see several feet of surge and sustained winds of TS or higher force for many hours. You are in Destin? Head inland a bit.

You left out "no electricity" too

I agree. Anyone thinking of doing so, need be both calm but stealthy too. There's easily a few hours time however I wouldn't exactly get into a car and drive aimlessly either. Make a few calls, see if there's a hotel room (or friend's house), make sure to take stock of any important papers (insurance, license, titles, wills, stocks, banking, etc), absolutely message or call a couple neighbors, friends, and family to alert them of your plans, don't leave unless you have plenty of gas in the car, bring cell phone-car chargers-extra battery back up, AND DO NOT drive anywhere where flooding is now or soon expected to occur.

[dhweather]

From the 4PM advisory yesterday:

Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic.


It appears Michael is going to be one researchers are referencing for decades.

[Abdullah]

Last night I said

We could very well wake up to a rapidly intensifying hurricane on this, you know.

Tonight, I'll say "We could very well wake up to a major hurricane on this, you know.

Tonight, I'll say "You're screwed, whoever's in the Panhandle"
and
"We could very well wake up to a landfalling high-end Category 4 Hurricane on this you know.

[meriland29]

Do you think the NHC will upgrade him to a 4 in the next adv?

[tolakram]

saved loop

[chaser1]

I can't even keep up with it all. Pretty amazing; i'm kind of blown away at the extent of deepening that's taken place. Just....

[Condor]

The problem with these, as I learned recently, is they extrapolate the data between microwave passes. The only hard data is the pass itself, so go off of those only. Between passes, we have recon VDMs; at last report, both NOAA2 and AF301 (who has since left the storm) reported the eyewall as open in the SW.

Thank you for the information. You have somewhere I can go and read the actual reports from the recon?

Recon Thread Here: viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120033

Yeah not really much there

[StormPyrate]

Last night I said

We could very well wake up to a rapidly intensifying hurricane on this, you know.

Tonight, I'll say "We could very well wake up to a major hurricane on this, you know.

Tonight, I'll say "You're screwed, whoever's in the Panhandle"
and
"We could very well wake up to a landfalling high-end Category 4 Hurricane on this you know.

There is still time to leave, I left New Orleans 24 hours before Katrina, it is simple pack and leave, if the roads are choked take back roads