ATL: IAN - Models
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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
00z ECMWF
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AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Every model is a little (HWRF, HMON, CANADIAN) to a lot (EURO, UKMET, ICON) east of GFS
Somethings gotta give.
Somethings gotta give.
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Jelmergraaff
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
HMON now showing a category 5 hurricane at +84h with a minimum pressure of 919 mb and sustained winds of 146kt/168mph. 
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21-year old meteorologist and student MSc Climate Studies from The Netherlands. Interested in all fields of meteorology and climatology, including tropical systems like hurricanes.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Will be interesting to see the Euro ensembles, it’s the EURO/UKMET/ICON and to a lesser extent the CMC against the GFS and HWRF..something has got to give.. if the GFS ends up being correct then I will certainly have new found respect for it.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Jelmergraaff wrote:HMON now showing a category 5 hurricane at +84h with a minimum pressure of 919 mb and sustained winds of 146kt/168mph.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/hmon/2022092500/hmon_mslp_wind_09L_29.png
Wow, the HMON is quite far to the west! Where was the prior run?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
6z Early track guidance has shifted east, NHC is now west of the TVCN, I’m honestly surprised the TVCN didn’t shift further south..maybe the Big Bend will be the landfall location.
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
0Z EPS spread looks tighter than the 12Z EPS with perhaps a further east mean. Any other takes on this?
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
LarryWx wrote:0Z EPS spread looks tighter than the 12Z EPS with perhaps a further east mean. Any other takes on this?
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
LarryWx wrote:0Z EPS spread looks tighter than the 12Z EPS with perhaps a further east mean. Any other takes on this?
Definitely looks like the 0Z EPS is a touch further southeast, more concentrated in the Punta Gorda/Sarasota area.
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Chris_in_Tampa
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Chris_in_Tampa
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
Sunday
6Z Early Cycle models & 0Z Late Cycle models
Through 5 days:
Complete (as available from NHC ATCF system / ECMWF for Euro and Ensemble):
Many names off the map.
6Z Early Cycle models & 0Z Late Cycle models
Through 5 days:
Complete (as available from NHC ATCF system / ECMWF for Euro and Ensemble):
Many names off the map.
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AxaltaRacing24
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Stormgodess
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Re: ATL: IAN - Models
The 00Z model spread didn't narrow any so I'd expect the NHC track to stay rather than shift east over Ocean Pond.
Overnight it looks to me like like the forward speed diminished but we can check the recon points to confirm.
Forward speed is important as the ridge rolling east would decimate the eastern models if slower track evolution is confirmed.
Overnight it looks to me like like the forward speed diminished but we can check the recon points to confirm.
Forward speed is important as the ridge rolling east would decimate the eastern models if slower track evolution is confirmed.
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