TS Irene=Comments,Sat Pics,Models Thread

[elysium]

Well now of course since I threw my forecast for recurvature into the waste paper basket, of course now the NHC is forecasting recurvature...ugghh!!

No, whatever Irene is doing, it's not recurving and don't ask me why. Yes, there was slight movement W.S.W. which is what is telling me that somehow Irene has ducked under the trough. There's no one that could forecast Irene now. You name it and Irene can possibly do it. I actually think Irene will become erratic and move S.W. at some point in time before recurving. Of course if Irene can do that, Irene can do anything afterwards. The only thing I know is that this storm will not just simply recurve before it becomes erratic.

Was heading into the trough beautifully. That little dingalingy high turned her?

[wxwatcher91]

anyone have a good map for monitoring the high and the weakness and Irene?

[elysium]

By the way, that little southerly tracker at 10N and 40W is starting to show signs of life. Should get an invest on it soon. The wave with the 1008 mb low isn't showing up on satellite. Between the two, the little southerly tracker looks best this hour.

This one may not enter the Caribbean. It is starting to look like it will be approaching the Leewards in about 3 or 4 days. It's a little fishy now, especially if Irene gets hung up near Bermuda, which will probably happen.

I don't know. I'm trying people it's just, it's hard to get excited about anything the way the pattern is setting up. The ridge is faltering badly. I don't know. The season is in a rut for a while. These things happen. We must wait it out.

Now the wave with the 1008 low has a better chance of getting across, but where is it? It was right there a short while ago, at 15N and 24W....now nothing. Come on Jose, how bad can it be?

[wxman57]

Irene is definitely moving NW now. It's WAY right of last night's forecast track. New models indicate recurvature well east of the U.S. coast. Fine with me - I'm slated to work the weekend hurricane shift. Here's the latest model plot. Definite trend much farther east. It's looking much less likely that Irene will affect the U.S.

<img src="http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/atlantic/early1.png">

[wxwatcher91]

By the way, that little southerly tracker at 10N and 40W is starting to show signs of life. Should get an invest on it soon. The wave with the 1008 mb low isn't showing up on satellite. Between the two, the little southerly tracker looks best this hour.

This one may not enter the Caribbean. It is starting to look like it will be approaching the Leewards in about 3 or 4 days. It's a little fishy now, especially if Irene gets hung up near Bermuda, which will probably happen.

I don't know. I'm trying people it's just, it's hard to get excited about anything the way the pattern is setting up. The ridge is faltering badly. I don't know. The season is in a rut for a while. These things happen. We must wait it out.

Now the wave with the 1008 low has a better chance of getting across, but where is it? It was right there a short while ago, at 15N and 24W....now nothing. Come on Jose, how bad can it be?

2am TWD has it up to 1011mb... but still it has a low which is more than any of the other waves can say ... yeah I'm thinking invest on this one pretty soon

[wxman57]

anyone have a good map for monitoring the high and the weakness and Irene?

I don't have a good online place, but I can make a map. This is a GARP image from the 06Z run showing a 1mb pressure contour for 12Z. I think you can see why Irene is moving NW.

<img src="http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/irene81.gif">

[Air Force Met]

I am disappointed in the discussion.

There was no mention of the microwave imagery at all. As AirForceMet said earlier, the LLC is likely close to where it was in the 37ghz imagery which means the NHC is way too far south.

I guess they got it right now...glad to see they put the center where it should be...

[CronkPSU]

hmmm just when they move it to a 310 motion it starts going just N of W now so they may have toi change the forecast track again if it keep up for much longer

[ThunderMate]

Is it me or is Irene starting to move more westward again?

[CronkPSU]

Is it me or is Irene starting to move more westward again?

oh it is moving a lot more west than it was last night, but too soon to see if it is a "W" or a trend

[wxman57]

Is it me or is Irene starting to move more westward again?

Might be you. I can't see anything. Heading to the office now. Have a lot more resources there.

[wxwatcher91]

Is it me or is Irene starting to move more westward again?

not just you. I believe it is now ducking under the ridge...

[Hyperstorm]

Tropical Storm Irene has been moving back toward more of a 290 heading over the past few hours. This should continue during the next 12-24 hours as the weakness bypasses it and the ridge builds ever so slightly to the north. However, there are enough westerlies from NC northward to allow it to start moving back to the NW again. Depening on where it starts moving NW, it means if we will see landfall or not. Let me tell you that it will be a VERY close call and I wouldn't call the US safe yet until we see the beginnings of the NW turn after today.

Regarding intensity, it appears that Irene is becoming better organized. Very deep convection (which has been completely absent during the past few days) with tops near -70*/-80* F, have started to develop over the LLC. This means that Irene is surely strengthening and it very well could become a hurricane within the next 12 hours, even though it is not officially forecast to do so until tomorrow.

Keep watching as this interesting pattern unfolds...

[Thunder44]

You all wanna see Irene dance. Take a look at this before they fix it :

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[ThunderMate]

wxman...if you find any westward motion please post so i know im not going blind at 15!

[wxwatcher91]

see how it keeps changing floater views? http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Irene is riding the line between floater views... I believe she has turned to the W or at least more west than she has been...

[CronkPSU]

yeah, just click on the first three green dots to exclude them from the loop, makes it easier to see the motion

[Derek Ortt]

Irene should turn back to the WNW for about 24-36 hours as it rotates around the north side of the UL to its west

[storms in NC]

I just looked and she is moving wnw AGAIN but how long will it last?

[Hyperstorm]

Is it me or is Irene starting to move more westward again?

ThunderMate, I don't think it is you. I definitely see the beginnings of a more WNW heading instead of the more NW we were seeing yesterday. Irene is reacting to the building ridge to the north, which has caused this more westward heading. This wasn't unexpected. Once Irene comes closer to land, it should start moving toward the NW again. This 290 motion is NOT expected to continue all the way to the coast...