Well Defined Wave off African Coast

#221 Postby **curtadams** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:34 pm

Moving offshore right now, and generating some convection over water as it does so. Looks investworthy to me.

#222 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:51 pm

11:45 UTC

17:15 UTC

Increasing in convection while a West wind is measured in the coast indicating a LLC.

#223 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 12:59 pm

984
ABNT20 KNHC 211758
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 190 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF CAPE
HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED
ABOUT 135 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PROGRESO MEXICO.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS LOCATED JUST INLAND OVER
EXTREME WESTERN AFRICA. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AFTER IT EMERGES INTO THE
TROPICAL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

#224 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:43 pm

#225 Postby **Blown Away** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 1:48 pm

Is the low around 15N/10W?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

#226 Postby **rjgator** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 2:18 pm

I can not believe they are talking about a wave/low that is still over the land. First time I have seen this talked about in such detail prior to it actually emerging. There are so many azazing looking lows/waves that come off the Coast and go poof... This will prove to be an interesting year.

KWT · #227 Postby **KWT** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:03 pm

Low is probably close to 16N but I rekcon it probably will dip down to the SW somewhat under the Azores high.

ECM does the exact same thing it did with BNertha and send it north around 45W...though this time thats more possible given the latitude its coming off Africa.

Mecklenburg · #228 Postby **Mecklenburg** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:45 pm

why is it not an invest yet?

#229 Postby **CrazyC83** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 3:48 pm

Mecklenburg wrote:why is it not an invest yet?

Should be 97L soon.

Cryomaniac · #230 Postby **Cryomaniac** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:14 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Should be 97L soon.

When is this likely to be?

#231 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:22 pm

Cryomaniac wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Should be 97L soon.

When is this likely to be?

Tonight - tomorrow morning

#232 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:44 pm

Looks like it's already over water. It needs to head SW to find warmer temps.

Matt-hurricanewatcher · #233 Postby **Matt-hurricanewatcher** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 5:49 pm

HURAKAN wrote:11:45 UTC

17:15 UTC

Increasing in convection while a West wind is measured in the coast indicating a LLC.

If it has a LLC then it should be a depression right off the coast. I'm not even going to hold back because of Dolly not having a LLC for that time. It will be a DEPRESSION PEOPLE IF IT HAS A LLC.

boca · #234 Postby **boca** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:05 pm

Will this move in the same manor as Bertha and recurve or move further west and threaten the NE islands.Thats me question.

#235 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:09 pm

boca wrote:Will this move in the same manor as Bertha and recurve or move further west and threaten the NE islands.Thats me question.

Will the Rays hold until October? Very difficult to say at this point!!!

#236 Postby **cycloneye** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:43 pm

A little less bullish:

229
ABNT20 KNHC 212313
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM CRISTOBAL...CENTERED ABOUT 660 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX
NOVA SCOTIA...AND ON TROPICAL STORM DOLLY...LOCATED ABOUT 430 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS.

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM WESTERN
AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED EARLIER...WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RATHER COOL.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

#237 Postby **RL3AO** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 6:54 pm

That would allow it to get further west before possible development.

caribepr · #238 Postby **caribepr** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:21 pm

cycloneye wrote:A little less bullish:

229
ABNT20 KNHC 212313
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2008

A LARGE AND WELL-DEFINED TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM WESTERN
AFRICA INTO THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH THAN
EXPECTED EARLIER...WHERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE STILL RATHER COOL.
HOWEVER...THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

I like the MUCH less bullish tone of this TWO!! And the look of the satellite. Hopefully we'll get to skip this one!

#239 Postby **HURAKAN** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 7:39 pm

The LLC is very much present and we will have to wait until tomorrow morning to see if DMAX has helped.

#240 Postby **fci** » Mon Jul 21, 2008 8:03 pm

How about those areas behind this one??

Well Defined Wave off African Coast

Re: Organized Wave emerging Africa / Low Pressure still inland

Re: Organized Wave emerging Africa / Low Pressure still inland

Re: Organized Wave emerging Africa / Low Pressure still inland

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa / Low now in the water

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa

Re: Organized Wave emerging Africa / Low Pressure still inland

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa

Re: Organized Wave emerges Africa

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