GOM: INVEST 90L

[cpdaman]

00 UTC TAFB Surface Analysis:

that developing gale x spot is pretty much where lyons drew the low being tomorrow (at 930 tonite)

2.00 inches in 3 1/2 hours and coming down pretty hard still

[NEXRAD]

Even if a tropical system doesn't develop, the tight pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary is already causing some near-tropical storm conditions for some stations. Select station wind reports...

Daytona Beach, 29mph G41 at 21:49
Mayport NAS, 35mph G46 at 22:52 (gusts at or above gale force each hour since 18:52)
Saint Augustine, 26mph G39 at 17:58

Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts 35 to 49 should persist through the early AM at least across Northeast Florida. If a low starts forming SW of the Keys (as expected per most guidance), then the tight gradient should spread such winds farther south into at least parts of East Central Florida. Winds will be lesser inland and Gulf Coast, becoming sustained generally 15 to 20 mph with gusts generally at or below 35 mph.

- Jay

[MGC]

18Z GFDL brings 90L down to 997mb with landfall near the Cape. I doubt 90L will reach that intensity. Landfall area is near where I've been thinking since Sunday.....MGC

[Evil Jeremy]

The New GFS is really speeding up the system this time, and having a low in the GOM at 18 hours.

[Aric Dunn]

:rarrow: Even if a tropical system doesn't develop, the tight pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary is already causing some near-tropical storm conditions for some stations. Select station wind reports...

Daytona Beach, 29mph G41 at 21:49
Mayport NAS, 35mph G46 at 22:52 (gusts at or above gale force each hour since 18:52)
Saint Augustine, 26mph G39 at 17:58

Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts 35 to 49 should persist through the early AM at least across Northeast Florida. If a low starts forming SW of the Keys (as expected per most guidance), then the tight gradient should spread such winds farther south into at least parts of East Central Florida. Winds will be lesser inland and Gulf Coast, becoming sustained generally 15 to 20 mph with gusts generally at or below 35 mph.

- Jay

i can attest to that.. im in daytona already seeing that have been for 4 hours or so .. very windy raining nearly 5 inches my house just north of me over 8 inches

[gatorcane]

:rarrow: Even if a tropical system doesn't develop, the tight pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary is already causing some near-tropical storm conditions for some stations. Select station wind reports...

Daytona Beach, 29mph G41 at 21:49
Mayport NAS, 35mph G46 at 22:52 (gusts at or above gale force each hour since 18:52)
Saint Augustine, 26mph G39 at 17:58

Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts 35 to 49 should persist through the early AM at least across Northeast Florida. If a low starts forming SW of the Keys (as expected per most guidance), then the tight gradient should spread such winds farther south into at least parts of East Central Florida. Winds will be lesser inland and Gulf Coast, becoming sustained generally 15 to 20 mph with gusts generally at or below 35 mph.

- Jay

Yes good point. I checked a buoy Station 41012 40NM East of St. Augustine and the winds are gusting pretty strong with NNE winds 27.2 KT gusts to 31.1 kt. Here is the combined graphical plot for the buoy showing wind speed on the increase and pressure on the decrease.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php? ... _label=EDT

[NEXRAD]

Onshore moving activity will spread across parts of East Central Florida during the next couple of hours, mainly from Daytona Beach to Sebastian Inlet, eventually extending inland to around Holopaw to Orlando. Some training echoes look probable, especially in Southern and Central Brevard County and in Northeast Volusia County. Farther south, drying behind the convective zone over Southeast Florida has slowed. If the convergence region now situated just offshore metro Southeast Florida shifts westward, then most of the South Florida cities could be in for some persistent moderate to heavy rainfall overnight.

- Jay

[cpdaman]

:rarrow: Even if a tropical system doesn't develop, the tight pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary is already causing some near-tropical storm conditions for some stations. Select station wind reports...

Daytona Beach, 29mph G41 at 21:49
Mayport NAS, 35mph G46 at 22:52 (gusts at or above gale force each hour since 18:52)
Saint Augustine, 26mph G39 at 17:58

Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts 35 to 49 should persist through the early AM at least across Northeast Florida. If a low starts forming SW of the Keys (as expected per most guidance), then the tight gradient should spread such winds farther south into at least parts of East Central Florida. Winds will be lesser inland and Gulf Coast, becoming sustained generally 15 to 20 mph with gusts generally at or below 35 mph.

- Jay

TWC said they will have a guy reporting from jacksonville starting in the early AM for them due to the conditions.......maybe they will move further south toward daytona during the day (Aric you could meet them at the beach and flash the storm2k hand sign lol)

anyway instead of just eyeballing the amount of water that fell into the gauge .....it says 3.20 inches and it is still coming down.....the front entrance to my work floods really bad so it should be a treat tomorrow morning.....crossing my fingers for a nice NE swell in s. palm beach ( from the NNE winds off carolina's)

[Aric Dunn]

:rarrow: Even if a tropical system doesn't develop, the tight pressure gradient behind the frontal boundary is already causing some near-tropical storm conditions for some stations. Select station wind reports...

Daytona Beach, 29mph G41 at 21:49
Mayport NAS, 35mph G46 at 22:52 (gusts at or above gale force each hour since 18:52)
Saint Augustine, 26mph G39 at 17:58

Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts 35 to 49 should persist through the early AM at least across Northeast Florida. If a low starts forming SW of the Keys (as expected per most guidance), then the tight gradient should spread such winds farther south into at least parts of East Central Florida. Winds will be lesser inland and Gulf Coast, becoming sustained generally 15 to 20 mph with gusts generally at or below 35 mph.

- Jay

TWC said they will have a guy reporting from jacksonville starting in the early AM for them due to the conditions.......maybe they will move further south toward daytona during the day (Aric you could meet them at the beach and flash the storm2k hand sign lol)

anyway instead of just eyeballing the amount of water that fell into the gauge .....it says 3.20 inches and it is still coming down.....the front entrance to my work floods really bad so it should be a treat tomorrow morning.....crossing my fingers for a nice NE swell in s. palm beach ( from the NNE winds off carolina's)

hehe.. sweet i have met a couple of them ... well they are probably following the forecast of the low making landfall in central florida well i will have to watch where they are..

[cpdaman]

what the rotation on this http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=wv
loop just west of fort myers.....

[Aric Dunn]

check out the 00z 850 MB vort map..

forgot to look at this..

increase low level vorticity for 90L

[Aric Dunn]

what the rotation on this http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... g&itype=wv
loop just west of fort myers.....

thats the upper low closing off

[cpdaman]

here's a decent map of winds and pressure valid 300utc tues

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/winds/

apparently this aviationweather link is not AS effected by the "satelite eclipse" wv/ infared is updated thru 4:15 utc while other sites take a "nap" at 315 utc for a couple hours

[floridasun78]

it still raining by miami airport it not move off shore yet it look like still over coast area i think by now it well over water

[Aric Dunn]

it still raining by miami airport it not move off shore yet it look like still over coast area i think by now it well over water

yeah the foward motion has stopped and should begin to come back west later ..
up north bands of rain Rotating in now ... now really a stream of rain or training as it was earlier much more vorticity to it the radar echos.. seems like the low is taking shape south of the area .. must watch and see where it finally consolidates..

[tailgater]

The low SSW of Key west really starting fire off some deep convection.
http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... X&loop=yes

[Aric Dunn]

The low SSW of Key west really starting fire off some deep convection.

yeah its also still moving east .. and the 90L is about to start crossing over or near andros island still with the shortwave satellite .. the circulation is clear there is a ball of convection that has continuously been firing but is off to the NE of the center .. i say center cause i have been tracking the swirl center .. also in a few hours we should see a increase in convection associated with it as it approaches the central bahamas and the dying trough that moved off the SE florida coast.

[Aric Dunn]

here is the 3 z convergence map.. clearly the low level convergence is increases with 90L, which is one of my reasoning's for mention what i did above. convection will soon begin to fire with 90L as well with the low in the florida straights ..still remains to be seen which will dominate.






also the 850 MB vorticity for 3z in also higher indicated the presence of low level circulation .. as mentioned above... and is moving nnw towards andros island area ... some development is still possible.. as the circulation has not died but yet. if anything has become more define even under the presence of shear ..

[Aric Dunn]

roughly around here ..

[floridasun78]

so if move more ne of south fl that mean south fl will miss mean area of rain