Models Developing a Strong Tropical Wave to Move Off Africa

[ROCK]

Aaah, the 1915 storm that proved the worth of the Galveston seawall...

ETA


Extremely, extremely unlikely, but not impossible.

OT: I am hoping for two snow miracle winters in a row here...

Extremely, extremely unlikely, but not impossible. What, a track like that? or having snow two years in a row?

[Brent]

Powerful hurricane near the islands in exactly a week...

[clfenwi]

Here's one for insomniac researchers: Are there any other seasons that (plausibly) began* with consecutive waves developing. I'll offer 1949 as a possibility.

*Where beginning of season=first tropical storm formation.

I've had the 13 latest starting seasons (post 1944) up in tabs for ages now, that's how I pulled out 1949 without having extensively searched.

[RL3AO]

3. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE COAST OF WESTERN
AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE. SOME SLOW
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE... LESS
THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

[mikef55]

THERE IT IS!! Already mentioned in the outlook this evening expect it to become an invest some point today.

[cycloneye]

For NHC to mention and have a circle on a wave that still has not emerged completly Africa is telling about what they see about development of it.It will be important to see where the low forms to then see how the track will be.

[KWT]

Watch out Cylconeye the 06z GFS and the 0z ECM both don't look great.

The 06z GFS then heads eventually towards the Bahamas and then recurves it just before it reaches Florida.

Seems like there is quite a big amount of uncertainty with this whole set-up, as you'd expect I suppose but small differences makes the difference between a caribbean raker and a recurve with no threat to land.

[Gustywind]

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121055
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...WEATHER
OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.



...ITCZ...

JUST OF THE COAST OF W AFRICA IS BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE WITH
EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED STRONG TO STRONG CONVECTION THAT
COVERS THE AREA FROM 7N-19N BETWEEN 18W-23W...WHICH COULD
POSSIBLY BE THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN
26W-36W.
...$$
WALLACE

[Thunder44]

TWC just showed the GFS showing this storm coming up the east coast. I wonder what hype will result of out that.

[cycloneye]

000
ABNT20 KNHC 121145
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 12 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TWO...LOCATED ABOUT 535 MILES WEST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.


A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS AND AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A VIGOROUS TROPICAL WAVE.
SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS IT MOVES TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

[cycloneye]

Big wave organizing.If I can pinpoint where the low may be forming,it may be around 11N-18W but I may be wrong on that as this system is big and the low may form anywhere.

[bob rulz]

The convection on the northern end of the wave is already beginning to diminish. If anything forms it will certainly be along the southern end.

[wx247]

Big wave organizing.If I can pinpoint where the low may be forming,it may be around 11N-18W but I may be wrong on that as this system is big and the low may form anywhere.

It's beginning to start to take on that "look" of organization. I will be interested to see what the wave looks like by day's end.

[KWT]

Yep convection is starting to decrease on the northern part of the wave and looks like we are seeing the first phases of the development of the southern region. If it keeps developing that circulation that seems to be starting to show then we could have an invest in the next 12hrs.

[Gustywind]

Serious candidate...showing strongs arguments with this great sat appareance, looks like it could pass with success the "poof test"

[KWT]

Looks like it won't be long before we have our next invest!

[punkyg]

Tell me. where would you place the low exactly or where it could form. i'm having a hard time. I already picked up on the cyclonic turning, but thats it.

[Gustywind]

One of our niciest member in the tropics Msbee has post this excellent weather link this morning:
Just have a look...humm Cycloneye it's just a fanstasyland path, i assume for Gustwind too

"Good morning, members of the "tent"

this was posted this morning on stormcarib by a weather correspondent from Antigua.
That second wave? the monster wave?
the web site he posted makes it look very dangerous for us in the Caribbean.

TD #3 ???

* From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 07:58:22 -0400

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS SITE


http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... tla_height


INTERESTING, BUT RATHER WORRYING

[JPmia]

One of our niciest member in the tropics Msbee has post this excellent weather link this morning:
Just have a look...humm Cycloneye it's just a fanstasyland path, i assume for Gustwind too

"Good morning, members of the "tent"

this was posted this morning on stormcarib by a weather correspondent from Antigua.
That second wave? the monster wave?
the web site he posted makes it look very dangerous for us in the Caribbean.

TD #3 ???

* From: "John Fuller" <fullerj at candw.ag>
* Date: Wed, 12 Aug 2009 07:58:22 -0400

HAVE A LOOK AT THIS SITE


http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display ... tla_height


INTERESTING, BUT RATHER WORRYING

This link will make the surfers in the Caribean islands salivate I am sure.

[punkyg]

I'm guessing the first storm is our TD while the other is the soon to be "montser". oh wow, if this plays out....well I feel sorry for the islands in the path.