WPAC : TROPICAL STORM MELOR (20W)

[supercane]

000
WTPQ54 PGUM 031804
TCEPQ4

TYPHOON MELOR (20W) POSITION ESTIMATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
400 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009

AT 355 AM CHST...1755Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.6 DEGREES
EAST.

THE CENTER IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 36000 FEET FROM THE GUAM RADAR. THE
EYE IS NOW LOCATED 230 MILES NORTH OF THE GUAM RADAR...170 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 210 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN. THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 17 MPH. THE EYE HAD A DIAMETER
OF 30 MILES.

$$

ZIOBRO

[HURAKAN]

Boom, boom, pow

[supercane]

Boom, boom, pow

Hurakan, Melor, our little "Jasmine Flower," has truly blossomed.

supercane

[cycloneye]

JMA 18:45z Warning=100kts

TY 0918 (Melor)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 3 October 2009
<Analyses at 03/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°30'(16.5°)
E143°40'(143.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 30km/h(15kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 150km(80NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more NE440km(240NM)
SW330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 04/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N18°10'(18.2°)
E137°55'(137.9°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area Wide 280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 05/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N21°25'(21.4°)
E132°50'(132.8°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 930hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(100kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(140kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area Wide 410km(220NM)

<Forecast for 06/18 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N25°25'(25.4°)
E131°00'(131.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 935hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 50m/s(95kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70m/s(135kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area Wide 540km(290NM)

[supercane]

000
WTPQ54 PGUM 031907 CCA
TCEPQ4

TYPHOON MELOR (20W) POSITION ESTIMATE...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GUAM
500 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009

CORRECTION TO LONGITUDE

AT 459 AM CHST...1859Z...THE EYE OF TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED BY
RADAR NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 143.4 DEGREES
EAST.

THE CENTER IS AT AN ELEVATION OF 38000 FEET FROM THE GUAM RADAR. THE
EYE IS NOW LOCATED 235 MILES NORTH OF THE GUAM RADAR...185 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND 215 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN. THE CENTER
APPEARS TO BE MOVING TO THE WEST AT 17 MPH. THE EYE HAD A DIAMETER
OF 30 MILES.

$$

ZIOBRO

000
WTPQ34 PGUM 031910 RRA
TCPPQ4

BULLETIN
TYPHOON MELOR (20W) ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP202009
500 AM CHST SUN OCT 4 2009

...TYPHOON MELOR SOON TO CLEAR THE NORTHERN MARIANAS...

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR AGRIHAN. HOWEVER...THIS WILL
LIKELY BE CANCELED AT 8 AM CHST WHICH WOULD LEAVE NO WATCHES OR
WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

AT 500 AM CHST...1900Z...PGUA WSR-88D SHOWED THAT THE CENTER OF
TYPHOON MELOR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 DEGREES NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.4 DEGREES EAST.

THIS IS ABOUT 185 MILES NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
210 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROTA
235 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF GUAM AND
215 MILES SOUTHWEST OF AGRIHAN.

TYPHOON MELOR IS MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH. A SLIGHT TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 130 MPH. MELOR IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY
A LITTLE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 65 MILES FROM THE CENTER
WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND UP TO 50 MILES FROM THE CENTER IN
THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD
UP TO 220 MILES FROM THE CENTER WITHIN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120
MILES WITHIN THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE.

REPEATING THE 500 AM CHST POSITION...16.6 DEGREES NORTH LATITUDE
AND 143.4 DEGREES EAST LONGITUDE...MOVING WEST AT 17 MPH WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 130 MPH.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 8 AM CHST.

$$

STANKO

[jconsor]

I am no expert on Western Pacific typhoons, but from everything that I can see, JTWC and JMA are making a big mistake going against the consistency and superior performance of the ECMWF. 5 straight ECMWF runs have shown Melor making landfall in Japan, and the past two have shown a landfall the Kii Pensinula (the southernmost part of Honshu), which is 250 miles west of JTWC's track and 300 miles west of JMA's track. The NOGAPS has also been consistent on a hit across eastern Honshu, and even the GFS (one of the easternmost models) has trended about 100 miles west on the 12z run.

JTWC forecasts from several days ago had Parma going over 100 miles northeast of the Phillipines several days ago, also going against the very consistent ECMWF, and they ended up being wrong.

[cycloneye]

2100z JTWC Warning=125kts

PGTW 032100
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 019
02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
031800Z --- NEAR 16.5N 143.8E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 143.8E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 17.4N 141.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 165 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 18.6N 138.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
050600Z --- 20.1N 135.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 21 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 23.7N 133.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 29.7N 134.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 27 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 37.1N 144.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 33 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
081800Z --- 43.8N 159.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
---
REMARKS:
032100Z POSITION NEAR 16.7N 143.1E.
TYPHOON (TY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS A CLOUD-FREE WELL-
DEFINED EYE WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW TO ALL QUADRANTS. BASED ON NWSFO
PGUM RADAR ANALYSIS FIXES, THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
IS DETERMINED TO BE DOWNSTREAM OF SAIPAN. THE INITIAL FORECAST
INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS IS BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 6.5 (127 KTS) FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE TYPHOON HAS
CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AROUND 14 KNOTS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID TO UPPER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
LOCATED TO THE NORTH. THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO TURN PROGRESSIVELY
POLEWARD AFTER TAU 48 AS AN UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW FOR RECURVATURE. EXTRA-
TROPICAL TRANSITION (ET) WILL BEGIN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE MID-
LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THERE IS A VERY STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
GRADIENT OVER JAPAN ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAM WITH VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) VALUES IN EXCESS OF 80 KNOTS. AFTER TY 20W ROUNDS
THE STR AXIS, THE UNFAVORABLE INTRODUCTION OF THE SOUTHWESTERLIES
AHEAD OF THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, THE STRONG VWS AND BAROCLINIC
INTERACTION WILL ACT IN CONCERT TO WEAKEN THE TY 20W AS IT
ACCELERATES RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD AROUND TAU 72. ALSO, TY 20W WILL
ENCOUNTER A RELATIVELY DRY MID-LATITUDE AIRMASS BEHIND THE TROUGH.
TY 20W WILL BE COMPLETELY EXTRA-TROPICAL BY TAU 120. THE AVAILABLE
CONSENSUS MEMBERS EXCEPT JGSM ALL FORECAST A RECURVATURE SCENARIO,
AND KEEP THE SYSTEM OVER OPEN WATER AND SOUTH OF THE KANTO PLAIN.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 031800Z IS 35 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 040300Z, 040900Z, 041500Z AND 042100Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W
(PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
NNNN

[Squarethecircle]

Melor has really improved today. JFF, CIMSS ADT Numbers:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 900.3mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.0 7.5 7.5

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +2.3mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +10.6C Cloud Region Temp : -79.9C

Can't wait for the visible.

[ozonepete]

I am no expert on Western Pacific typhoons, but from everything that I can see, JTWC and JMA are making a big mistake going against the consistency and superior performance of the ECMWF. 5 straight ECMWF runs have shown Melor making landfall in Japan, and the past two have shown a landfall the Kii Pensinula (the southernmost part of Honshu), which is 250 miles west of JTWC's track and 300 miles west of JMA's track. The NOGAPS has also been consistent on a hit across eastern Honshu, and even the GFS (one of the easternmost models) has trended about 100 miles west on the 12z run.

JTWC forecasts from several days ago had Parma going over 100 miles northeast of the Phillipines several days ago, also going against the very consistent ECMWF, and they ended up being wrong.

I think you're right, and I'm thinking that most of the models don't really handle the coming interaction between MELOR and PARMA very well. This is a post I just put up in the PARMA thread:

As I was saying yesterday, these two looked like they might do the FUJIWHARA EFFECT. Now it's pretty certain. I'm a little surprised that the JTWC hasn't used the term, since it's definitely the proper name for it. Anyway, here's the link to the wikipedia entry: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fujiwhara_effect
The one sentence "The two vortices will be attracted to each other, and eventually spiral into the center point and merge."
is misleading, because that can only happen if one is much stronger than the other and atmospheric conditions are just right. But they straighten it out pretty well after that. The point they should have stressed is that when the two cyclones are near or at the same strength is when you see the maximum fujiwhara effect, where they rotate around their midpoint cyclonically until upper winds push them apart.

Anyway, these two are definitely going to start doing the fujiwhara within the next 12-24 hours. Since MELOR will be much stronger, we should expect PARMA to get pulled east much more than MELOR will go west. And since MELOR is stronger and will be closer to the stronger part of the upper southwesterlies, it will recurve pretty soon after the interaction anyway. But I wouldn't be surprised if it goes a little more west due to the interaction.

Here's the last JTWC prognosis reasoning where they talk about it:

WDPN33 PGTW 031500
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNING NR 24//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TYPHOON 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH OF
MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE TYPHOON HAS MADE LANDFALL WITH EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN LUZON, AND IS NOW LOCATED NEAR THE NORTH-CENTRAL
COASTLINE. THE ONLY REPORTING OBSERVATION SITE IN NORTHERN LUZON
(RPLI) HAD WINDS SUSTAINED AT 20 KNOTS (GUSTING TO 32 KNOTS) AS
OF 1000Z. SEA LEVEL PRESSURE WAS ALSO REPORTED AT 993 MB.
DVORAK VALUES FROM PGTW ESTIMATE THE INTENSITY AT 77 KNOTS.
3. FORECAST REASONING
A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN.
B. THE SYSTEM WILL EMERGE INTO THE LUZON STRAIT AS A WEAKENED
SYSTEM, THOUGH GENERALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL
FACILITATE FURTHER INTENSIFICATION. HOWEVER, INTENSIFICATION WILL BE
LIMITED DUE TO UPWELLING OF COOLER WATER, WHICH IS TYPICAL OF SLOW-
MOVING SYSTEMS. THE SYSTEM WILL MORE OR LESS STALL IN THE LUZON
STRAIT FOR THE NEXT 36 - 48 HOURS UNTIL RIDGING IS ABLE TO BUILD BACK
IN FROM THE EAST. RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ONCE TY
20W SUFFICIENTLY MOVES OUT TO THE NORTHEAST.
C. A DEGREE OF DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR
WITH TY 20W, WHICH WILL BEND PARMA'S FORECAST TRACK SLIGHTLY
EQUATORWARD AFTER TAU 48. BETWEEN TAU 96 AND 120, TY 20W WILL PUSH
OUT TO THE NORTHEAST, REORIENTING THE MONSOON TROUGH SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST, AND ALLOWING RIDGING TO WORK BACK INTO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE SYSTEM. THESE CHANGES WILL ALSO ALLOW PARMA TO TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD. INTENSITY GUIDANCE KEEPS PEAK INTENSITY BETWEEN 90
AND 100 KNOTS, BUT A STRONGER SYSTEM IS NOT UNLIKELY AS IT MOVES
INTO THE PHILIPPINE SEA.

BTW, the stronger PARMA gets, the more west MELOR will go.

[RattleMan]

Melor has really improved today. JFF, CIMSS ADT Numbers:

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 900.3mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
7.0 7.5 7.5

Still on the rise:

Code: Select all

2009OCT03 210000  7.2  892.7/  +2.3 /146.0  7.2 7.5 7.6  3.2T/18hr OFF  OFF   15.50 -79.72  EYE     19 IR   16.55 -142.85   COMBO 

[ozonepete]

Yeah, wow! This is one impressive typhoon now. Can't wait for the visible images which will start coming out pretty soon.

[Squarethecircle]

Visible already out:



Eye continuing to clear.

[leanne_uk]

totally stunning storm I cannot wait for the next 24 hours to see exactly what happens

[cycloneye]

Melor has been moving all day westward,south of the forecasts points.This may cause the typhoon to track very close or even make landfall in Japan.

[JTE50]

Visible already out:

Eye continuing to clear.

wow, what a beast. When typhoons go by you out here they just get stronger!!! Saipan very lucky looking at that westward jog the past 12 hours.

[ozonepete]

Visible already out:

Eye continuing to clear.

wow, what a beast. When typhoons go by you out here they just get stronger!!! Saipan very lucky looking at that westward jog the past 12 hours.

Where are you, JTE50? I would love to live in that part of the world - I'm completely fascinated by tropical cyclones.

[ozonepete]

Melor has been moving all day westward,south of the forecasts points.This may cause the typhoon to track very close or even make landfall in Japan.

Yes. Obviously the longer it goes west, the more likely it will hit Japan. Very soon now it should start moving a little more west-northwestward due to the approaching longwave trough and the fujiwhara interaction with Parma, but the more it interacts with Parma, the more it will tend to continue west-northwest and not recurve. I still don't see how it will miss Japan.

[StormingB81]

Here in Okinawa we are planning or landfall here. Its a big and storng storm. Better to be safe then sorry.

[cycloneye]

ozonepete,he is in Saipan.

[theavocado]

Melor has been moving all day westward,south of the forecasts points.This may cause the typhoon to track very close or even make landfall in Japan.

Yes. Obviously the longer it goes west, the more likely it will hit Japan. Very soon now it should start moving a little more west-northwestward due to the approaching longwave trough and the fujiwhara interaction with Parma, but the more it interacts with Parma, the more it will tend to continue west-northwest and not recurve. I still don't see how it will miss Japan.

Not necessarily, it's not how far west the system goes that determines the recurve shape, but in fact the shape of the STR and the baroclinic zone. Right now, the baroclinic zone is oriented E/W over Japan, and will remain relatively zonal through out the next few days. No matter where Melor approaches from, it will hit that area and very quickly start to track to the east and start to get cold, dry air entrainment. Thickness charts around that time frame (from NOGAPS and GFS) show that the system will take on frontal characteristics in as little as 12 hours after interacting with the baroclinic zone.