ATL : TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX - MODELS

[ROCK]

Nothing to surprising I see coming for the latest GFS....EURO in a few hours will be interesting...

[Ivanhater]

12z Nogaps, look like the Upper Texas coast. though it seems to originate this low around Panama, not really 93L
]

[Ivanhater]

12z GFDL..Hurricane in central gulf

HOUR:126.0 LONG: -91.34 LAT: 25.82 MIN PRESS (hPa): 974.19 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 83.29

[ROCK]

what gets me is that I thought the GFDL was ran off of the GFS to some extent but yet the GFDL keeps flipping between nothing and something....one minute it wants to soak the NGOM with oil the next it wants to kill it the Yucatan...

[ronjon]

what gets me is that I thought the GFDL was ran off of the GFS to some extent but yet the GFDL keeps flipping between nothing and something....one minute it wants to soak the NGOM with oil the next it wants to kill it the Yucatan...

Rock, I think the difference might be the strength of the storm - weaker more west, stronger further east. The GFDL has been alternating between a weak depression and hurricane on almost every other run. It'll settle done once we have an established tropical cyclone.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12Z GFDL

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Ivanhater]

[clfenwi]

what gets me is that I thought the GFDL was ran off of the GFS to some extent but yet the GFDL keeps flipping between nothing and something....one minute it wants to soak the NGOM with oil the next it wants to kill it the Yucatan...

The GFDL uses the GFS for initial and boundary conditions. Beyond that, it is its own model.

[BigA]

12z WRF: development, then westward, slowing down near Yucatan

http://weather.myfoxtampabay.com/maps/W ... f_slp.html

[ROCK]

what gets me is that I thought the GFDL was ran off of the GFS to some extent but yet the GFDL keeps flipping between nothing and something....one minute it wants to soak the NGOM with oil the next it wants to kill it the Yucatan...

The GFDL uses the GFS for initial and boundary conditions. Beyond that, it is its own model.

thanks for clarification.....CL....

nice little dippsy doodle as it closes in on Cuba then goes around the Yucatan....

[srainhoutx]

[gatorcane]

When I see consistent runs from ECMWF/GFS that show the GFDL solution maybe I'll believe the GFDL. At this point I would just throw out that GFDL run and wait for some more.

Most models are not showing a hurricane in the GOM at this point.

[Ivanhater]

12z Canadian...even stronger and no ridge in the gulf

[img][/img]

[ronjon]

Animated 12Z CMC - very similar to GFDL.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010062212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[ronjon]

Looks like we're starting to get some model consensus with latest GFDL, GFS, and CMC tracks. As usual, its going to be a timing issue when the trough swings by early next week as to where the storm ends up in the GOM.

[KWT]

Yeah westwards, Yucatan scrape, then NW/N looks lik the call most models are making at the moment.

The GFDL goes back to its agressive run...BUT importantly it shows very little development in 48hrs and still gets quite strong which does lead to some creadence to the run, though most models aren't nearly as strong as that.

[ROCK]

That CMC run would put most of the oil spill right into FL....no ridge as the trof is digging and erodes the high....how far it digs is a good question...it is summer after all.....

[ROCK]

Yeah westwards, Yucatan scrape, then NW/N looks lik the call most models are making at the moment.

The GFDL goes back to its agressive run...BUT importantly it shows very little development in 48hrs and still gets quite strong which does lead to some creadence to the run, though most models aren't nearly as strong as that.

Euro will be out shortly maybe it will give us some hints to the upper air pattern next weekend....that trof digs pretty good but is it realistic for June...

[Ivanhater]

Exactly Rock, what we are seeing with the Euro, GFDL and CMC, is this is not likely to slam into Mexico. We will see eroding of the ridge as the trough digs, just depends on how much like you say. Everyone on the Northern Gulf coast from Texas to Florida should be on standby

[KWT]

:uarrow: When I see consistent runs from ECMWF/GFS that show the GFDL solution maybe I'll believe the GFDL. At this point I would just throw out that GFDL run and wait for some more.

Most models are not showing a hurricane in the GOM at this point.

Very true the GFDL probably is the extreme of what is possible, I'd be very shocked if it came off, you don't often see a cat-2 in the Gulf in June...

That being said all the models I've seen so far today do have at least a closed low in the Gulf, several have more then that as well...even the GFS has shifted towards having at least a closed low.