WPAC: Ex DIANMU

[supercane]

Yeah, can't find anything from RKSL yet, and Okinawa's still in TC COR IV.

Looking at JTWC forecast, TD 05W still forecast to be a TD at CPA in about 24hr from now. Given this forecast, "TCCOR 4: Destructive winds of 50-knots or greater are possible within 72 hours," may be appropriate even with a system threatening.

[supercane]

ASCAT passed just to west of center:

[Typhoon Hunter]

Here's a link to Japanese radar in the southern Ryuku region:

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/radnowc/index.html?areaCode=219

[StormingB81]

Just updated the Okinawa weather for tomorrow calling for winds between 30-40 knots.

[StormingB81]

http://www.jma.go.jp/en/typh/a.html

On JMA's site now..Calling for it to be a Tropical Storm within 24 hours

[Typhoon Hunter]

Next name will be one of my favourites, Dianmu. Means mother / goddess of lightning in Chinese.

[StormingB81]

Next name will be one of my favourites, Dianmu. Means mother / goddess of lightning in Chinese.

That is a pretty cool name

[StormingB81]

JMA at 0600 UTC warning

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 996 HPAAT 22.9N 124.8E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTH 10 KNOTS.POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 30 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXPECTED MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER FOR NEXT 12 HOURS.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 081800UTC AT 24.5N 125.0E WITH 70 MILES RADIUSOF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090600UTC AT 26.4N 125.3E WITH 120 MILES RADIUSOF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

[StormingB81]

It looks like its been strangthing the last few hours it actually looks pretty good..

[Chacor]

WTPQ20 RJTD 080900
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 080900UTC 23.2N 124.9E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 030KT
GUST 045KT
FORECAST
24HF 090900UTC 26.8N 125.8E 120NM 70%
MOVE NNE 09KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[Chacor]

WTPN31 PGTW 080900
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W (FIVE) WARNING NR 002
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
080600Z --- NEAR 22.9N 125.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 040 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.9N 125.3E

080900Z POSITION NEAR 23.3N 125.4E.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 255 NM
SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS LOW LEVEL BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE NORTHERN
QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION STILL REMAINING SOUTH OF THE LLCC
DUE TO AN AREA OF UPPER-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH. NEVERTHELESS,
CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS SLIGHTLY INCREASED OVER THE LLCC WHICH HAS
CAUSED LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW AND KNES DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TD 05W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN AND IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. TD 05W IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 72 AS
IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH AN AREA OF
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO
INTERACT WITH LAND AS WELL AS THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE AND BY
TAU 96 IT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL. THE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO WITH THE MODELS
DEPICTING VARIOUS DEGREES OF A WESTWARD PUSH BY THE STEERING RIDGE
AROUND TAU 48. CONSEQUENTLY, THE GFDN MODEL TRACKS MORE WESTWARD
TOWARDS SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA WHILE THE ECMWF MODEL DEPICTS A TRACK
CLOSER TO SASEBO, JAPAN. FINALLY, THE GFS TRACKER IS AN OUTLIER TO
THE EAST AS IT SHOWS THE SYSTEM TRACKING TOWARDS OKINAWA, JAPAN
BEFORE SLOWLY TURNING BACK NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS CHEJU ISLAND.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS
AT 081500Z, 082100Z, 090300Z AND 090900Z.

[Chacor]

TCNA21 RJTD 081200
CCAA 08120 47644 NAMELESS 06235 11252 14134 215// 90107=

JMA has it at T1.5.

[senorpepr]

WTPQ20 RJTD 081200
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 1004 DIANMU (1004) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 081200UTC 23.6N 125.1E FAIR
MOVE NNE 07KT
PRES 994HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 45NM
FORECAST
24HF 091200UTC 27.5N 125.3E 85NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
48HF 101200UTC 31.6N 126.0E 160NM 70%
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 992HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
72HF 111200UTC 35.0N 129.5E 250NM 70%
MOVE NE 11KT
PRES 996HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT =

[senorpepr]

WTJP21 RJTD 081200
WARNING 081200.
WARNING VALID 091200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
GALE WARNING.
TROPICAL STORM 1004 DIANMU (1004) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION
994 HPA
AT 23.6N 125.1E SEA SOUTH OF OKINAWA MOVING NORTHNORTHEAST 07 KNOTS.
POSITION FAIR.
MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 45 MILES.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 090000UTC AT 25.5N 125.2E WITH 50 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 091200UTC AT 27.5N 125.3E WITH 85 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 101200UTC AT 31.6N 126.0E WITH 160 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
992 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.
FORECAST POSITION FOR 111200UTC AT 35.0N 129.5E WITH 250 MILES RADIUS
OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.
996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

[StormingB81]

It almost looks like it stalled out again..

[Chacor]

I think that's the first time I've seen JMA upgrade a system despite giving it a T1.5.

[supercane]

WDPN31 PGTW 081500Z
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 05W WARNING NR 03//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
A. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 05W (FIVE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220
NM SOUTHWEST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 081106Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT IMPROVED
CONVECTIVE BANDING AROUND THE SOUTHERN TO NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). HOWEVER, THE DEEP
CONVECTION TO THE NORTH IS STILL BEING SUPPRESSED BY AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON A
081025Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES OF 30 KNOTS. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TD 05W IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. HOWEVER, SUBSIDENCE TO THE NORTH
IS IMPINGING POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE
NORTHEAST, WHICH IS SLOWING INTENSIFICATION.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE FORECAST REASONING IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK
PHILOSOPHY. HOWEVER, IN THIS FORECAST INTENSIFICATION IS SOONER AND
SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAXIMUM INTENSITY BASED ON THE FACT THAT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHWARD, DECREASING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.
B. TD 05W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE ANCHORED TO THE EAST OF JAPAN AND WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWARD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 05W
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER WARM SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH AN AREA OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
REACHING A MAXIMUM INTENSITY OF 45 KNOTS NEAR TAU 48.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TD 05W SHOULD BEGIN TO INTERACT WITH LAND AS
WELL AS THE APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE. BY TAU 96 IT IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE INITIAL TAUS. AFTER
TAU 48, THE MODEL TRACKERS BEGIN TO SHOW SOME SPREAD AS THEY DEPICT
DIFFERENT INTERACTIONS WITH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
SUBSEQUENT RE-CURVATURE POINTS. ECMWF RECURVES FASTER THAN THE OTHER
MODELS, TRACKING THE SYSTEM CLOSE TO SASEBO, JAPAN. WBAR IS AN
OUTLIER TO THE WEST OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TRACKING TOWARDS CHEJU
ISLAND. THIS FORECAST IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.//
NNNN

[supercane]

KMA's forecast similar to other agencies:

[supercane]

UW-CIMSS composite with obs, shear (still from the NW), and earlier TRM MW imagery showing slightly improved organization:

[supercane]

And much improved signature on ASCAT: