ATL: DEBBY - Post-Tropical

[jabman98]

You're welcome. They should be fine coming in in Monday. But you should certainly get all of your hurricane preps done since Texas is a big target early in the season. Good luck.

Yeah, I'm heading to the supermarket tomorrow and figure I'll double check supplies. For various reasons we haven't done that yet this season. Still have a lot of stuff from last season, but need to top up a few canned goods.

I wouldn't mind getting some rain, but not flooding and high winds. Texas could still use more rain, though. That drought last year was brutal.

[TexasF6]

My local ProMet just echoed caution for the whole gulf coast, but precisely stated that Texas has to watch this one!

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ozonepete]

It's not y'alls first rodeo. It's June, with a small entity possibly becoming a little bit of a problem if any. Nail biting starts in Sept- Oct for the officials, not now. Please.....

You should put a disclaimer on that. There is no way to tell how this will turn out...

[djmikey]

Loopdy Looo.....lol

[bbadon]

It's not y'alls first rodeo. It's June, with a small entity possibly becoming a little bit of a problem if any. Nail biting starts in Sept- Oct for the officials, not now. Please.....

Tell that to the Cameron Parish people who had relatives die in Hurricane Audry, and then experienced Rita and wiped out again for Ike. This is not a small entity btw it will have a pretty good circulation or so it looks.

[brunota2003]

That was...a very, um, interesting? run by the NOGAPS. Two areas spinning around each other in an effort to hit literally everything from NO to the Texas/Mexico border

[jabman98]

It's not y'alls first rodeo. It's June, with a small entity possibly becoming a little bit of a problem if any. Nail biting starts in Sept- Oct for the officials, not now. Please.....

After Allison blew up and caused so many problems for Houston the first week of June, I'm pretty respectful of June storms. You never know when the right (or wrong) conditions will be in place for a major problem. Allison was only a TS, so it doesn't have to be a hurricane.

[cycloneye]

Up to 70%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 21 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON RECENTLY
DOWNGRADED TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...LOCATED ABOUT 585 MILES
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND.

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE NORTHERN COAST
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PRODUCING AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF
CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
CUBA...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. SATELLITE
DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS GRADUALLY BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE
SLOWLY FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE ALSO
IMPROVING AND ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT
OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES SLOWLY NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH
SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM TOMORROW AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[ROCK]

this is a large circulation and reminds me of some WPAC storms....monsoon in origin...has the makings to be fairly large IMO...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

70%, I think this may be a tropical depression when recon gets there tomorrow, maybe even a tropical storm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[ROCK]

wow 70%....I would have kept it at 50% put they are the pros......they are not beating around the bush on that call....


oh and Stewart wrote it.....well that is concerning...

[Zanthe]

Looks like we're up to a 70%...didn't expect that. I thought like, maybe a 60 at most...guess that's why I'm not a pro though!

[cycloneye]

wow 70%....I would have kept it at 50% put they are the pros......they are not beating around the bush on that call....


oh and Stewart wrote it.....well that is concerning...

Well,I think it doesn't matter at all who writes a TWO,as the actual system and what is occuring is what dictates the decision by a NHC forecaster no matter if is Avila,Beven,Stewart etc.

[ROCK]

wow 70%....I would have kept it at 50% put they are the pros......they are not beating around the bush on that call....


oh and Stewart wrote it.....well that is concerning...

Well,I think it doesn't matter at all who writes a TWO,as the actual system and what is occuring is what dictates the decision by a NHC forecaster no matter if is Avila,Beven,Stewart etc.

I was kidding...

[TheShrimper]

Yes it does, and as you I am on the Gulf Coast alot closer to where this may be when/if it develops. There is plenty of time, and no nail biting should be contemplated. There is hardly a mention here in SW Fla. We know the drill, and I don't think the officials are or will be huddled around a room with tracking maps and computer feeds. You are 5 days removed if anything should threaten. That being said, come Aug, Sept. and on, yeh I'd be a little concerned. Plenty of time now man to react. You'll be fine even if there's a curveball thrown.

[ROCK]

18Z GFDL is rolling....already out with Chris

[Cainer]

Something you don't expect to see in the third week of June, the C storm and a big red circle. Funny season so far.

[tropicwatch]

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SHIP 0000UTC 25.60 -86.40 29.73 or 1006.7mb

We have a new winner for lowest pressure over water.

[robbielyn]

I think if Avila or Bevin wrote it, it would have said 50%. They seem more on the conservative side compared to Stewart. I love it when Stewart does it. Its more exciting he gets our hopes up. I think Texas to LA is the target and they can hv it cuz I have beach plans. Jmo nothing more. Not a met.

[tropicwatch]

I think 70% is probably a good number.