ATL: ERNESTO - Post-Tropical

[hurricanes1234]

My thought's tonight on 99L. Better surface circulation, slightly worse upper level circulation and flow. Caribbean threat.

http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... -slightly/

You're absolutely right, the latest images show that the outflow has deteriorated slightly, however, this should not interfere with the development, as long as the system stays in a low shear, moist environment with warm SSTs.

[Zanthe]

Just yesterday, the same 99L was an open, ragged-looking, weak area of disturbed weather with shallow convection encircling a barely noticeable center. Now, look at it. It is growing and is now a compact, organized low with the convection neatly placed in the center. By 2 am tomorrow, this might be a 60-70% chance of TC formation within 48 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

edit by tolakram, added disclaimer

The disclaimer is required when making predictions.

I agree. Given it has a 50% chance now, I really do expect it to be up'd to at least a 60 if things keep going how they have been.

[Rgv20]

Below is the 12zECMWF Ensemble mean and spread.


By next Tuesday morning the Ensembles start to disagree on the Sea Level pressure in the NW Caribbean as indicated by the bright purple colors.



By next Friday morning as you can see some of the Euro Ensemble members hint at a possible area of Low pressure in the SW GOM....The operational 12zECMWF showed 99L trying to organize in the Western Gulf at the end of its run.

[Stormlover2012]

thanks good stuff!!

[ozonepete]

Just yesterday, the same 99L was an open, ragged-looking, weak area of disturbed weather with shallow convection encircling a barely noticeable center. Now, look at it. It is growing and is now a compact, organized low with the convection neatly placed in the center. By 2 am tomorrow, this might be a 60-70% chance of TC formation within 48 hours.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I think most of us would agree with you, given the low shear, high SSTs and continued slow but steady progress with its organization.

Oops! I thought you said 2PM. By 2AM? Less likely but not impossible.

[ozonepete]

Continues to consolidate.

[hurricanes1234]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


99L seems to be moving relatively fast, and has recently taken on a due west path. If this continues, the storm may be one of those systems that stay far south, like Ivan in 2004. Whatever the case may be, this system is surely getting its act together, despite the low latitude. I wouldn't be overly surprised if I wake up tomorrow and find a newly formed tropical cyclone in the Atlantic, though that seems a bit far-fetched.

cycloneye adds Storm2k Disclaimer

__________________
This information is not an official forecast. It is just my speculation. Do NOT use it as an expert's advice. If you want official forecasts and information, you can visit the NHC website.

[Sanibel]

This could still sputter. Let's see tomorrow.

[Cyclenall]

Do we have an east coaster or south gulf storm? I know it's early but...

I don't believe it's possible for 99L to affect the East Coast because of the upper-level blocking over the great lakes, if it does cruise through the carribean then 99L will be in a very problematic position, likely a major hurricane if it survives unfavorable conditions.

Oh, dropping a big M there I see . The Caribbean has been hostile for so long now (years), when will it rest?

It is being observed that 99L is moving WNW and is about to cross the 10°N mark, enough distance from the equator for the circulation to become more vigorous as time passes. Given the current position in the open central Atlantic, if this does develop by tomorrow evening, it should have enough time and water to steadily intensify, possibly into a hurricane, before it falls apart upon reaching higher wind shear in the Caribbean. Or, if the wind shear relaxes, the storm may pass over an environment favorable enough for it to become a major hurricane, but this seems a lot less likely, given the current trends.

Percentages (based on what I think):

1. 50% chance that this storm continues moving WNW, eventually affecting a portion of the northern/eastern Caribbean to some extent, and then re-curving out to sea.
2. 5% chance that it moves due west, eventually making landfall over the southern Caribbean and affecting a very small part of South America and the ABC islands.
3. 25% chance that the storm moves through the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico, making landfall somewhere along the Gulf coast.
4. 10% chance that the storm landfalls along the East Coast, possibly affecting the Carolinas and northward.
5. 10% chance that it avoids all landmasses.

The bolded part seems the second least likely behind "TC avoids all landmass". Take the 0 off that number and maybe I'd agree .

I also predicted that the 8:00 pm TWO would go 50% just before I looked at it. I'm not as confident they will go 60% red at 2:00 am (50/50).

[Cyclenall]

The 00z SHIPS RI Index:

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 45% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12.8%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.4%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 5.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

Not bad.

[Zanthe]

is it just me...or is 99L not looking as hot as it was?

[Rgv20]

Tonight's 0zUKMET has 99L in Western Cuba by Monday Evening..

[Weatherfreak000]

Looks fine to me, you would expect it to flare up or down due to diurnal maximum and minimum. Looks right on track with probably a 50% chance of development from here on out.

As for my guess on track....yeesh throw a dart on a map blindfolded and your guess is good as mine. I think odds of an East Coast landfall have now considerably dropped off as well. GOM members here we go, the roulette wheel of model runs begins anew.

As a sidenote, with El Nino conditions perhaps taking form in the ATL, any potential affects to the system will be impossible to predict. Usually a good sign is to look from phantom TUTT's or sudden and difficult to predict blasts of shear.

[ROCK]

0Z GFS has nada even at 72hrs......sigh...

I surely dont want to jump on the GFS hater train after Debbie but I dont think it is seeing what we are seeing out there... Maybe its picking up on the shear...IDK....

[ROCK]

0Z NOGAPS is on drugs again. ...rapidly strenthens it and sends it up north of the islands and out to sea.....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[JamesCaneTracker]

Stays at 50%!

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1100 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
HAVE NOT BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH.

[mcheer23]

Good choice by the NHC

[Kingarabian]

0Z NOGAPS is on drugs again. ...rapidly strenthens it and sends it up north of the islands and out to sea.....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

The NOGAPS never fails to make me giggle .

[Fego]

Big shift from the 00UTC ECMWF. Interesting indeed.


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[Fego]

More interesting is at 120hrs: Bahamas