ATL: INGRID - Models

[Rgv20]

12ECMWF Ensembles stay consisting on 93L just offshore between Tampico and Brownsville come late this weekend.



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[ROCK]

Some things never change. Wait and see approach, and pay attention to what pro's say.

hey at least I am trying.....and yes it was a 6 pack but probably a storm from 2010!!

[Portastorm]

What are your thoughts on this right now Porta? Do you think the models aren't done shifting?

Nope. I do not think they are done shifting. I think when we see the kind of spread we are seeing now in the ensembles, that suggests the potential for change. The more spread, the more potential for change. We don't even have a clear center of circulation yet. We're all following a mid level center on satellite. Just seems to me that once it re-emerges over water west of the Yucatan and IF it forms some type of center, then let's see how the models handle things. It would seem by Friday morning we all should have a good idea.

I would say that a landfall south of Brownsville is still the most likely of options.

[South Texas Storms]

Interesting run by the 12z FIM-8 model. Shows it moving slowly northward making landfall in south Texas in 8 days.
http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/displayMapLocalDiskDateDomainZip.cgi?keys=fim_jet:&runtime=2013091112&plot_type=3hap_sfc&fcst=192&time_inc=360&num_times=57&model=fim&ptitle=Experimental%20FIM%20Model%20Fields&maxFcstLen=336&fcstStrLen=-1&domain=236&adtfn=1

[stormlover2013]

8 days a longs way out

[ROCK]

the FIM9 (just looked at it before you posted) rides the coast....the high abruptly shifts east creating an on shore flow. 18Z NAM is showing something similiar in the 500MB heights. at 84hr its just sitting in the BOC getting stronger 993mb...

[LaBreeze]

:uarrow: the FIM9 (just looked at it before you posted) rides the coast....the high abruptly shifts east creating an on shore flow. 18Z NAM is showing something similiar in the 500MB heights. at 84hr its just sitting in the BOC getting stronger 993mb...

Rock, how far does it have it riding the coast? Up to Brownsville?

[ROCK]

:uarrow: the FIM9 (just looked at it before you posted) rides the coast....the high abruptly shifts east creating an on shore flow. 18Z NAM is showing something similiar in the 500MB heights. at 84hr its just sitting in the BOC getting stronger 993mb...

Rock, how far does it have it riding the coast? Up to Brownsville?

lol....that was the FIM8 I was looking at....they should just make one...rides up the MX coast and stops in STX...

[djmikey]

So....it sounds like models are coming back north? Not like yesterday, but trending back that way?

[South Texas Storms]

18z GFS is stronger and further north than the 12z run so far through 69 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091118/gfs_z850_vort_watl_24.png

[Hammy]

18z GFS is stronger and further north than the 12z run so far through 69 hours.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2013091118/gfs_z850_vort_watl_24.png

96 hours out, back to showing a hurricane.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013091118/gfsfull_pres_wind_atl_33.png

[Wx_Warrior]

111h gfs 18z



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[South Texas Storms]

Where is the shortwave that will probably push to ridge off to the east? Just off that map?

Edit: The ridge shifts to Louisiana by 138 hrs on this run, so if 93L can move slower across the Gulf, then maybe it can move further north towards south TX.

[Wx_Warrior]

123H gfz 18z



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[Wx_Warrior]

That's about it for 18z GFS...Wait for the 0z and King EURO

[HouTXmetro]

Looks like it weakens rapidly while hugging the Mexican coast between 111-123 hours.

[PTrackerLA]

Much more believable run on the GFS, no longer a nearly 5 day stall that was being shown yesterday.

Just a quick comparison since I have both open on in my browser...The 12z NAVGEM and 18z GFS are nearly identical through the first 100 or so hours but reach very different results in the end.

[Hammy]

What is rather interesting, if I am reading the models correctly, is that whatever gets going in the gulf will come from that large area of moisture behind 93L merging with 90E after it gets pulled north.

[Alyono]

What is rather interesting, if I am reading the models correctly, is that whatever gets going in the gulf will come from that large area of moisture behind 93L merging with 90E after it gets pulled north.

what will get going in the Gulf will be 93L. That EPAC system will simply become part of the inflow

[Rgv20]

18zGFS operational run thru 108 hours is right on top of the GFS Ensemble Means....93L just east of Tampico by late Sunday Night.



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