WPAC: HALONG - Post-Tropical

[somethingfunny]

Halong is definitely making a run for it now, although I hesitate to say that's definitely an eye and not a dry slot. (it's probably an eye)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Halong is definitely making a run for it now, although I hesitate to say that's definitely an eye and not a dry slot. (it's probably an eye)

The storms's LLCC is located beneath there. Yeah, I agree that may be an eye.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

JTWC upped Halong's intensity for 12z to 60 kts, and that makes it nearly a typhoon.

11W HALONG 140801 1200 14.9N 137.9E WPAC 60 978

Because of Halong intensifying faster, guess I may bust as I thought wind shear would hamper (well shear was then increasing, but is currently decreasing faster), but Halong has a very impressive EQ-ward outflow and relaxing shear. Looks like this would be a lot stronger than my previous forecast I made, which was overly conservative.

[euro6208]

I see, Halong is more organized since i was away...:Latest images suggest this is nearly a typhoon or maybe even one...

[euro6208]

Now this is what you call a real tropical cyclone...

Euro and GFS agreeing on a powerful typhoon landfall for Japan...

[euro6208]

ADT: 967 hPa 90 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG011030

CIMSS AMSU: 967 hPa 83 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08010710

SSMIS: 962 hPa 100 knots Date: 08011007

5.6 956.5 104.6 5.6 5.8 5.8

[euro6208]

ADT: 967 hPa 90 knots Scene: CDO Date: AUG011030

CIMSS AMSU: 967 hPa 83 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 08010710

SSMIS: 962 hPa 100 knots Date: 08011007

5.6 956.5 104.6 5.6 5.8 5.8

KNES upps to 4.5...

20140801 1432 14.9 -137.4 T4.5/4.5 11W HALONG

Looking like we might have our 6th typhoon of the season later on today...

5.7 954.5 107.2 5.7 6.1 6.1

Also up...

[RL3AO]

We likely have a 100+kt typhoon at the moment (1-min)

[RL3AO]

TPPN11 PGTW 011816
A. TROPICAL STORM 11W (HALONG)
B. 01/1732Z
C. 14.8N
D. 136.9E
E. THREE/MTSAT
F. T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
(+0.5 ADJUSTMENT FOR WHITE) YIELDS A DT OF 6.5. PT WAS 5.0; MET
WAS 4.5. DBO MET DUE TO CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.0 IN 6HRS).
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
LONG


DT of 6.5

Constraints need to be broken here. This is not a 4.5

[Alyono]

I concur with the 75 KT winds. The eye simply is quite cold. Just did a Dvorak and also obtained a 4.5

[RL3AO]

Eye is warming fairly quickly though. We went from a MG eye at 1701 to a OW eye at 1732.

[euro6208]

11W HALONG 140801 1800 14.9N 136.9E WPAC 75 967

6th typhoon of the season!

Although maybe on the low side...

[euro6208]

6.1 944.9 117.4 6.1 6.4 6.4 !


ADT: 951 hPa    110 knots    Scene: CDO    Date: AUG011730

CIMSS AMSU: 957 hPa    97 knots    Bias Corr: 0 (MW)    Date: 08011719

SSMIS: 962 hPa    100 knots    Date: 08011007

[RL3AO]

Looks like a T5.5 (102kt) or a T6.0 (115kt). Maybe you bring it down a touch because of how quickly its intensified. Probably 105kt+ (1-min).

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

JTWC has always been slow to react in the case of rapidly intensifying typhoons. I'm sorry to tell them this is not a 75kt cyclone.

More like 105kt to 110kt.

[Alyono]

lets not forget what we saw with Rammasun where the satellite was saying 120 kts, but the obs said about 90 kts

This looks like a 5.0 to me, primarily due to the cold eye still

I'd estimate the winds to be between 85 and 90 kts

[RL3AO]

Its not a very impressive eye but were still getting OW colors on BD. Eye temp fluctuating between -20 and -30. Not terrible.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The eye is still cool but steadily warming via CIMSS ADT...up to -22C on their last analysis.

lets not forget what we saw with Rammasun where the satellite was saying 120 kts, but the obs said about 90 kts

This looks like a 5.0 to me, primarily due to the cold eye still

I'd estimate the winds to be between 85 and 90 kts

Are you sure the stations were in the strongest portion of Rammasun's eyewall? Even assuming they were, frictional effects at landfall reduce maximum sustained winds by ~15%, and that doesn't even count after the storm has been ashore for a while. I'd be surprised if the 120kt assessed intensity WAS confirmed by land observations.

[Equilibrium]

11W HALONG 140802 0000 14.9N 136.4E WPAC 100 946


After looking at the recon just completed on BERTHA a TS that was sheard unorganised and very weak and still had FMR winds still to support a 45 kt intensity. I have to wonder if if any of these satellite estimates and dvorak techniques are really worth a pinch of salt.



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[euro6208]

Category 3 Halong!