Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[psyclone]

there's historically been an active named storm about 90% of the time somewhere in the Atlantic at peak season (Sept 10). This year could put us in the lowest decile of lameness. I think we had an active storm on 9-10 even last year so unless something pops before 9-10 that is really saying something.

The wave that is supposed to emerge off the West Coast of Africa tomorrow night has really good model support. Could be a named system or close to becoming one by the time the peak of Sept 10th arrives.

I hope so. with a 90% historical probability I'd still be inclined to bet the odds. If not now when, right?

[chaser1]

I've heard that tune before that the MJO suppose to return when it does, too many other factors are in play to keep development from occurring...

That was very true, in 2013. The void of convection in the Atlantic is due to the suppressive phase of the MJO, while each time we've had a Kelvin wave pass, or gotten into the MJO's favorable phase so far, at least one system has managed to develop. Given how frequently the waves are coming off (another difference from last year) we're bound to get a short burst of activity sooner or later--even last year's pathetic season had three active storms at once in September for a short time, and conditions are certainly more favorable this year.

[color=#0000BF]That is so true Hammy; I find it humorous when others so quickly discount the potential threat of hurricane development/impact entirely based upon climatological conditions that existed up to that point or based on prior history. No different than if I were to suggest a useless factoid such as "...on this date in 1992, there were more East Pacific MAJOR hurricanes (7), than there were named storms here in the Atlantic. Such a statement to those living in South Florida that year when Hurricane Andrew struck, would have been been perceived as insensitive & ignorant. Fact is that weather has no memory. Scientists can't suggest Hanna will be a major hurricane that strikes the US in October, based on what happened in 1992, much less than such a forecast purely based on the 1st 3 months of this hurricane season. Ultimately, the most dangerous part of the Atlantic hurricane season is upon us. "How many" or "where" FUTURE storms will impact, will not be a result of past history, nor does how many storms in other ocean basins have a baring on how badly people's lives could be impacted by one or more deadly storms here. I think THAT pretty much sums up whether anyone within the Atlantic basin might still bare any risk this year. /color]

[TheStormExpert]

Conditions to me do not look more favorable than they did last season! In fact they are probably slightly less favorable at least IMO.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Conditions to me do not look more favorable than they did last season! In fact they are probably slightly less favorable at least IMO.

We've had three hurricanes (more than all of last year), including a Cat 2 US landfall, all before the first hurricane of the season formed last year. In addition to having stronger waves coming off of Africa than last year around this time--I'd still like to know the reasoning behind this year allegedly having worse conditions.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Conditions to me do not look more favorable than they did last season! In fact they are probably slightly less favorable at least IMO.

We've had three hurricanes (more than all of last year), including a Cat 2 US landfall, all before the first hurricane of the season formed last year. In addition to having stronger waves coming off of Africa than last year around this time--I'd still like to know the reasoning behind this year allegedly having worse conditions.

Fewer named storms.

[Hammy]

:uarrow: Conditions to me do not look more favorable than they did last season! In fact they are probably slightly less favorable at least IMO.

We've had three hurricanes (more than all of last year), including a Cat 2 US landfall, all before the first hurricane of the season formed last year. In addition to having stronger waves coming off of Africa than last year around this time--I'd still like to know the reasoning behind this year allegedly having worse conditions.

Fewer named storms.

This is why ACE is a better measure of the hurricane seasons as far as comparison goes--using an example, is a year with 10 storms and zero hurricanes or a year with five storms, all of which are hurricanes, the stronger year? Last year was 6/0/0 by this point, and this year is 4/3/0 so far. A rough calculation shows 21.1975 ACE this year, compared to 10.1175 by this point last year, using BT data, so conditions are certainly more favorable overall. Another note is that conditions were more favorable in June/July than they were after that, as we saw 2/0/0 from July 30-Sep 5, meanwhile this year we've seen 3/2/0 during that same time.

[ConvergenceZone]

I don't agree with your reasoning Hammy. Sure we had the cat 2 storm, but we are getting ready to go into the middle of September with only 4 named storms with no potential named storms in sight, just a couple of invests that will probably be dissolved by dry air within the next few days.... The next two weeks are key. If we enter the beginning of October with still only 4 named storms, you'll have to admit that this year has definitely been much quieter than what was expected... Sure there's always the potential of a stray storm in October and even November, but that's about it, IF we even get that at all..... I can't remember a year where we had fewer storms to track than what we've experienced so far.... Most storm hobbyists that track storms could care less what the ACE for the season is, they just want action, and other than early in the season, action is just something we haven't had... Luckily though I've been able to keep my self entertained by tracking the extremely busy pacific....

[Hurricaneman]

I don't agree with your reasoning Hammy. Sure we had the cat 2 storm, but we are getting ready to go into the middle of September with only 4 named storms with no potential named storms in sight, just a couple of invests that will probably be dissolved by dry air within the next few days.... The next two weeks are key. If we enter the beginning of October with still only 4 named storms, you'll have to admit that this year has definitely been much quieter than what was expected... Sure there's always the potential of a stray storm in October and even November, but that's about it, IF we even get that at all..... I can't remember a year where we had fewer storms to track than what we've experienced so far.... Most storm hobbyists that track storms could care less what the ACE for the season is, they just want action, and other than early in the season, action is just something we haven't had... Luckily though I've been able to keep my self entertained by tracking the extremely busy pacific....

I remember the early 90s period was very similar and bang by 1995 things changed to more positive atmosphere for development and people were happy to be tracking many storms but also many landfalling storms caused much damage so even in the slow times one must watch out for storms that sneak under the radar

[Hammy]

I don't agree with your reasoning Hammy. Sure we had the cat 2 storm, but we are getting ready to go into the middle of September with only 4 named storms with no potential named storms in sight, just a couple of invests that will probably be dissolved by dry air within the next few days.... The next two weeks are key. If we enter the beginning of October with still only 4 named storms, you'll have to admit that this year has definitely been much quieter than what was expected... Sure there's always the potential of a stray storm in October and even November, but that's about it, IF we even get that at all..... I can't remember a year where we had fewer storms to track than what we've experienced so far.... Most storm hobbyists that track storms could care less what the ACE for the season is, they just want action, and other than early in the season, action is just something we haven't had... Luckily though I've been able to keep my self entertained by tracking the extremely busy pacific....

A few things here stick out, first off, if you want to exclude early season activity, this year was by far more active, because post-June, last year was 4/0/0 to this point, this year is 4/3/0, so the argument of it being worse still doesn't hold water. Not only that, I think despite the predictions of a below normal season, people still went into this year with unrealistically high expectations of activity. We've had one storm so far for the first week of September, so we're about on par with most El Nino years up to this point. We are in the suppressive phase of the MJO, and the first two weeks of September were in fact predicted to be below normal. And as I've pointed out already, the MJO has produced at least one hurricane each time it's come around, and it's expected to return around the middle part of September. And because nothing is showing up beyond a week is meaningless, because unless there's going to be a Cat 5 or something, a storm is not guaranteed by any means to be picked up more than a week out, just look at the four we've already had for this.

[Ntxw]

The last KW for a whle is crossing Atlantic now. Sinking air will soon dominate with significant prolonged suppressed phase to follow. Cristobal's wave breaking event (lower heights up north) will add to raised heights below. ACE addition week 1 should be slightly below normal, week 2 and 3 below to well below normal imo.

This was back on Aug 28th. I think overall it was a good sypnotic look for week 1 and week 2 since it's now Sept 7th. Dolly formed before the full passage of the suppressed KW, but since then it has held strong for much of the basin.

I agree with Hammy ACE is a far better measure than number. 2014 is ahead of 2013 to date. I will take tracking Arthur and Cristobal over all the junk that occured before Humberto last year. With that said ACE will be close to 2013 (last year will rise to about 23pts vs 20 pts now or 46% of normal) when Humberto and Ingrid kicks in, assuming nothing forms between now and then. It is currently sitting.

As for Kelvin waves/MJO, there will be one more big suppressed phase crossing the Atlantic per this week (look below near 60W). But Convectively active KW will be entering the EPAC from the WPAC at the same time which likely means the second half of Sept may yield a good passage for Atlantic. I still expect ACE count to be below normal week 3 but not as low as week 1 and 2.

[cycloneye]

Ntxw,that means 91L may take some advantage?

[Ntxw]

Ntxw,that means 91L may take some advantage?

Probably not. If it does develop it will be on it's own and not from the KW. There's no CCKW passage until after the 12th at the soonest. Maybe if it survives and makes it to the far western Atlantic but with the next 3-4 days it's embedded within suppressed phase.

[ConvergenceZone]

A few things here stick out, first off, if you want to exclude early season activity, this year was by far more active, because post-June, last year was 4/0/0 to this point, this year is 4/3/0, so the argument of it being worse still doesn't hold water. Not only that, I think despite the predictions of a below normal season, people still went into this year with unrealistically high expectations of activity. We've had one storm so far for the first week of September, so we're about on par with most El Nino years up to this point. We are in the suppressive phase of the MJO, and the first two weeks of September were in fact predicted to be below normal. And as I've pointed out already, the MJO has produced at least one hurricane each time it's come around, and it's expected to return around the middle part of September. And because nothing is showing up beyond a week is meaningless, because unless there's going to be a Cat 5 or something, a storm is not guaranteed by any means to be picked up more than a week out, just look at the four we've already had for this.

Yes, but typically September is known as, "THE MONTH" when it comes to hurricane season.... Basically, it's either going to bring it, or it's not.... We'll see....
All I can say is that we'll wait until mid October, before hurricane seasons starts shuts down(although in some past seasons, I've seen activity shut down in early October), and then we'll end up seeing if you ended up bring right, or if I ended up bring right, in terms of 2014 being a disappointing pathetic season.........

[ninel conde]

A few things here stick out, first off, if you want to exclude early season activity, this year was by far more active, because post-June, last year was 4/0/0 to this point, this year is 4/3/0, so the argument of it being worse still doesn't hold water. Not only that, I think despite the predictions of a below normal season, people still went into this year with unrealistically high expectations of activity. We've had one storm so far for the first week of September, so we're about on par with most El Nino years up to this point. We are in the suppressive phase of the MJO, and the first two weeks of September were in fact predicted to be below normal. And as I've pointed out already, the MJO has produced at least one hurricane each time it's come around, and it's expected to return around the middle part of September. And because nothing is showing up beyond a week is meaningless, because unless there's going to be a Cat 5 or something, a storm is not guaranteed by any means to be picked up more than a week out, just look at the four we've already had for this.

Yes, but typically September is known as, "THE MONTH" when it comes to hurricane season.... Basically, it's either going to bring it, or it's not.... We'll see....
All I can say is that we'll wait until mid October, before hurricane seasons starts shuts down(although in some past seasons, I've seen activity shut down in early October), and then we'll end up seeing if you ended up bring right, or if I ended up bring right, in terms of 2014 being a disappointing pathetic season.........

sept wont bring it.

[Hammy]

7-9 storms is very likely what we'll end up with. I'm seeing too many baseless all-or-nothing posts, that somehow because the season so far has done exactly what it was predicted to do (if not overperformed slightly) that it's an indication that it will do less than what it was forecast to for the remainder. Things won't change because of current conditions is not a forecast, "I've seen x" is not a forecast.

And if we're going to make it about who's right, I recall a certain poster saying we'd go the entirety of August with 0/0/0

[TheStormExpert]

7-9 storms is very likely what we'll end up with. I'm seeing too many baseless all-or-nothing posts, that somehow because the season so far has done exactly what it was predicted to do (if not overperformed slightly) that it's an indication that it will do less than what it was forecast to for the remainder. Things won't change because of current conditions is not a forecast, "I've seen x" is not a forecast.

And if we're going to make it about who's right, I recall a certain poster saying we'd go the entirety of August with 0/0/0

Well we did get close to it with only 0/1/1, one named storm for all of August is downright im unimpressive to me. Most El Niño years see at least 2 named storms throughout August, and to make it worse we are not even in an official El Niño.

[ConvergenceZone]

7-9 storms is very likely what we'll end up with. I'm seeing too many baseless all-or-nothing posts, that somehow because the season so far has done exactly what it was predicted to do (if not overperformed slightly) that it's an indication that it will do less than what it was forecast to for the remainder. Things won't change because of current conditions is not a forecast, "I've seen x" is not a forecast.

And if we're going to make it about who's right, I recall a certain poster saying we'd go the entirety of August with 0/0/0

I've just seen too many people in the last 2 to 3 years say, "oh just wait, it will get busier in September, and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in mid September" and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in late September" and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in October" and then when October comes and the tropics still haven't produced, those people don't have an answer...... But I trust you, so 'll keeping waiting

[TheStormExpert]

7-9 storms is very likely what we'll end up with. I'm seeing too many baseless all-or-nothing posts, that somehow because the season so far has done exactly what it was predicted to do (if not overperformed slightly) that it's an indication that it will do less than what it was forecast to for the remainder. Things won't change because of current conditions is not a forecast, "I've seen x" is not a forecast.

And if we're going to make it about who's right, I recall a certain poster saying we'd go the entirety of August with 0/0/0

I've just seen too many people in the last 2 to 3 years say, "oh just wait, it will get busier in September, and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in mid September" and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in late September" and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in October" and then when October comes and the tropics still haven't produced, those people don't have an answer...... But I trust you, so 'll keeping waiting

What you are saying must apply to 2013 alone. 2011 and 2012 were quite active throughout the peak the months.

[ConvergenceZone]

7-9 storms is very likely what we'll end up with. I'm seeing too many baseless all-or-nothing posts, that somehow because the season so far has done exactly what it was predicted to do (if not overperformed slightly) that it's an indication that it will do less than what it was forecast to for the remainder. Things won't change because of current conditions is not a forecast, "I've seen x" is not a forecast.

And if we're going to make it about who's right, I recall a certain poster saying we'd go the entirety of August with 0/0/0

I've just seen too many people in the last 2 to 3 years say, "oh just wait, it will get busier in September, and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in mid September" and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in late September" and then "oh just wait, it will get busier in October" and then when October comes and the tropics still haven't produced, those people don't have an answer...... But I trust you, so 'll keeping waiting

What you are saying must apply to 2013 alone. 2011 and 2012 were quite active throughout the peak the months.

Yea, I shouldn't have said the last 2 years, I'm talking over the last several years in general when it's been completely dead in the middle of September......
If it's a year where it was busy by mid September, it doesn't apply. What I'm talking about it when it's completely dead in the middle of September, when in actually, we suppose to be reaching a peak for the season, even if it is a low activity season.

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, I shouldn't have said the last 2 years, I'm talking over the last several years in general when it's been completely dead in the middle of September......
If it's a year where it was busy by mid September, it doesn't apply. What I'm talking about it when it's completely dead in the middle of September, when in actually, we suppose to be reaching a peak for the season, even if it is a low activity season.

Agreed. I've gotten tired of the same excuse over and over. Fact is that every day without a storm is every day wasted.

In 2010-12, those "wait for [insert when]" people were right, but last year proved that you can not get overly optimistic during dead times. If conditions aren't favorable, they aren't favorable, regardless whether it is June or September. Just because we are near the peak season does not mean storms are a sure thing to form.