ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

blp · #221 Postby **blp** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:29 am

Only thing missing is a pressure drop on the local obs, so far staying steady last hour and half. Convection not helping to bring pressure down.

Marsh Harbor:
2014-09-11 00:02:00,78.1,75.9,32.51,NW,309,6.0,9.0,93,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:02:00,
2014-09-11 00:07:00,78.1,75.9,32.51,West,279,4.0,9.0,93,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:07:00,
2014-09-11 00:12:00,77.9,76.1,32.51,WSW,249,4.0,9.0,94,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:12:00,
2014-09-11 00:17:00,77.7,75.9,32.51,WSW,238,3.0,9.0,94,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:17:00,
2014-09-11 00:22:00,77.5,75.9,32.51,WSW,256,4.0,8.0,95,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:22:00,
2014-09-11 00:27:00,77.4,75.7,32.51,West,269,4.0,8.0,95,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:27:00,
2014-09-11 00:32:00,77.4,75.7,32.51,West,268,5.0,7.0,95,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:32:00,
2014-09-11 00:37:00,77.2,75.6,32.51,West,281,2.0,8.0,95,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:37:00,
2014-09-11 00:42:00,76.8,75.2,32.51,WNW,295,2.0,8.0,95,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:42:00,
2014-09-11 00:47:00,76.6,75.0,32.51,West,278,3.0,8.0,95,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:47:00,
2014-09-11 00:52:00,76.6,75.4,32.51,West,279,3.0,5.0,96,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:52:00,
2014-09-11 00:57:00,76.5,75.2,32.51,West,279,1.0,5.0,96,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 04:57:00,
2014-09-11 01:02:00,76.5,75.2,32.51,West,272,2.0,5.0,96,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 05:02:00,
2014-09-11 01:07:00,76.3,75.0,32.51,West,272,4.0,5.0,96,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 05:07:00,
2014-09-11 01:12:00,76.3,75.0,32.51,West,272,2.0,4.0,96,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 05:12:00,
2014-09-11 01:17:00,76.5,75.2,32.51,West,272,2.0,4.0,96,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 05:17:00,
2014-09-11 01:22:00,76.5,75.2,32.51,West,272,2.0,4.0,96,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 05:22:00,
2014-09-11 01:27:00,76.3,75.0,32.51,SW,233,1.0,4.0,96,0.00,,,0.00,meteohub,2014-09-11 05:27:00,

#222 Postby **fci** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 12:31 am

I have seen better looking clusters of afternoon heating thunderstorms many afternoons this summer.
But it IS classified an Invest and the waters are warm so it's not time to "move on".
Oh, and WHAT would you like the Tropical Enthusiasts to "move on" to?

Hammy · #223 Postby **Hammy** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:08 am

blp wrote:Only thing missing is a pressure drop on the local obs, so far staying steady last hour and half. Convection not helping to bring pressure down.

Left at 20%/30% for 2am, I'm assuming this is partly why.

TARHEELPROGRAMMER · #224 Postby **TARHEELPROGRAMMER** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:16 am

lol Okay people it is my opinion and Andrew looked a lot more impressive than this please do not even mention it in the same forum as this storm is located in it is clearly NOT Andrew. I know people are tropical enthusiasts on this site but come on people this storm is not impressive and is only going to be in good conditions another what 24 hours? Let us enjoy the fact that this thing is a dud.

beoumont · #225 Postby **beoumont** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 1:59 am

TARHEELPROGRAMMER wrote:lol Okay people it is my opinion and Andrew looked a lot more impressive than this please do not even mention it in the same forum as this storm is located in it is clearly NOT Andrew. I know people are tropical enthusiasts on this site but come on people this storm is not impressive and is only going to be in good conditions another what 24 hours? Let us enjoy the fact that this thing is a dud.

This was Dr. Sheets (NHC Director) warning of "tiny" Andrew's approach:

#226 Postby **NDG** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:27 am

Yeap, that "squeeze play" and shear is getting to it this morning, doubt it will do much today.

Nimbus · #227 Postby **Nimbus** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:42 am

Very dry air squeezing down from the north, 92L hasn't done much since the collapse yesterday.
Will probably still have some circulation when it reaches the gulf but maybe only a small window for development before frontal shear kicks in.

#228 Postby **NDG** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 5:46 am

Nimbus wrote:Very dry air squeezing down from the north, 92L hasn't done much since the collapse yesterday.
Will probably still have some circulation when it reaches the gulf but maybe only a small window for development before frontal shear kicks in.

What do you mean by frontal shear?

tropicwatch · #229 Postby **tropicwatch** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:05 am

This morning it looks to starting that wsw movement. If I didn't know better I would say it looked like it was running for cover in a less sheared environment.

#230 Postby **NDG** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:29 am

blp wrote:Ok, very interesting ASCAT pass from an hour and half ago.

http://oi59.tinypic.com/x3txlf.jpg

Last night's ASCAT did not showed nothing new, all day yesterday visible satellite and surface observations indicated that there was a closed surface circulation.

#231 Postby **NDG** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:34 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:This morning it looks to starting that wsw movement. If I didn't know better I would say it looked like it was running for cover in a less sheared environment.

Yeah, it will have to start moving WSW to SW today to get away from the shear coming from north from the SE US ridge.

#232 Postby **jlauderdal** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:42 am

NDG wrote:
panamatropicwatch wrote:This morning it looks to starting that wsw movement. If I didn't know better I would say it looked like it was running for cover in a less sheared environment.

Yeah, it will have to start moving WSW to SW today to get away from the shear coming from north from the SE US ridge.

it wont win the race ultimately

#233 Postby **Ntxw** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:47 am

Yeah it did not generate enough convection overnight and was overcome by the shear. You could see it slowly approach 92L yesterday from the N/NE. We'll probably get refiring of stuff to the S/SW but nothing organized today. Just another mess, window is closing.

Janie2006 · #234 Postby **Janie2006** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:53 am

Well, probably true, but one thing to look for is the front getting hung up before it reaches the coast due to the dynamics being well off to the north and east. On the other hand, the ridge does get "squeezed" a bit.

tropicwatch · #235 Postby **tropicwatch** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 6:53 am

One thing it has going for it this morning is that it appears the convection is re-building earlier than it did yesterday.

#236 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:05 am

Going to bring increasing rain to southern half of Florida but very little chance this develops today, bet they cancel recon.

Need to monitor it once it gets into the Gulf but it has almost zilch model support even there!

jhpigott · #237 Postby **jhpigott** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:06 am

panamatropicwatch wrote:One thing it has going for it this morning is that it appears the convection is re-building earlier than it did yesterday.

Nothing to write home about, but at least something to track.

Melbourne long range radar:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?prod ... b&loop=yes

#238 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:06 am

Of course convection poofed right when I said it was looking good.

#239 Postby **NDG** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:10 am

Weak LLC appears to be where I placed the "L"

#240 Postby **Evil Jeremy** » Thu Sep 11, 2014 7:13 am

Dean4Storms wrote:Going to bring increasing rain to southern half of Florida but very little chance this develops today, bet they cancel recon.

Need to monitor it once it gets into the Gulf but it has almost zilch model support even there!

Recon was scrapped with the 8am TWO.

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