Tropical Wave in East Atlantic (Is Invest 97L)

[Hurricaneman]

If the Euro still has this in the western Caribbean at the end of the run then it will be a model war Euro vs GFS

[Blown Away]

12z GFS.. Now a Hurricane for PR... TD for PR on 06z...


12z GFS... Lowest Pressure, maybe Cat 4... Up, Up, and away to the NE over Bermuda/Canada after this...

[Alyono]

MU has the most intense hurricane ever for Canada and Bermuda

[Hurricaneman]

If you look at the track record for tracks per model the Euro is better than the GFS so I'm going with a compromise with in between with a track close to Jamaica around day 9 and around the Yucatan Channel or Eastern Cuba at day 10 or 11

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Blown Away]

MU has the most intense hurricane ever for Canada and Bermuda

12z GFS... Moving NNE and just before Canada landfall...

[Hurricaneman]

Here's the thing I notice with the GFS this year and might be prudent to point out for this feature is that the GFS tends to break down ridges too fast causing an early recurve in its model output.

The Euro has the opposite issue as it tends to over do the ridges causing its outputs to put it farther west or not even recurve at all

hence why I'm going for something in between

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[Blown Away]

00z Euro... GFS/Euro flopped, Euro had a track over PR and OTS and GFS into GOM a few days ago... Now Euro W into Central America...

[gatorcane]

Look at the last three runs of the ECMWF as far as the upper air pattern and compare to the GFS. The ECMWF has much more consistency on the pattern through 10 days. That is another reason to suspect the GFS does not have the correct upper air pattern in that 12Z run when you look at the 6 to 10 day window.

[Hurricaneman]

I'm more likely to go with the Euro because of its consistency the GFS has been all over the place

[Blown Away]

Look at the last three runs of the ECMWF as far as the upper air pattern and compare to the GFS. The ECMWF has much more consistency on the pattern through 10 days. That is another reason to suspect the GFS does not have the correct upper air pattern in that 12Z run when you look at the 6 to 10 day window.

Both the GFS/Euro seem to find upper level conditions to support a decent tropical system in Caribbean or W Atlantic... IMO the only reason the 00z didn't develop to strong was due to 39L traveling over/near land in SA...

[Hurricaneman]

Look at the last three runs of the ECMWF as far as the upper air pattern and compare to the GFS. The ECMWF has much more consistency on the pattern through 10 days. That is another reason to suspect the GFS does not have the correct upper air pattern in that 12Z run when you look at the 6 to 10 day window.

Both the GFS/Euro seem to find upper level conditions to support a decent tropical system in Caribbean or W Atlantic... IMO the only reason the 00z didn't develop to strong was due to 39L traveling over/near land in SA...

I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS had it right yesterday as that is what the Euro is showing for the most part pattern wise the last day or 2

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[wxman57]

The part I believe is that the disturbance which just moved off the west coast of Africa will reach the Caribbean around the middle of next week. Well, that and the fact that the safest place to be is where the GFS puts the hurricane center at day 16. It's just something to keep an eye on for now. I doubt that the Tropical Atlantic has suddenly become hurricane-friendly. This disturbance may struggle all the way to the Caribbean.

[LarryWx]

This may end up being relevant to pouch 39L, which the 12Z GFS has forming on 9/27. No TC on record that formed east of 55W in the MDR after 9/25 ever hit the CONUS! I was surprised when I discovered that by looking year by year. However, 5 that had a genesis in the 56-62W corridor of the MDR did hit, including Hazel of 1954:

- Hazel of 1954: formed at 59W on 10/5
- #5 of 1897: formed at 62W on 10/9
- #13 of 1887: formed at 60W on 10/9
- #6 of 1879: formed at 56W on 10/9
- #5 of 1873: formed at 62W on 9/26

[WeatherEmperor]

This may end up being relevant to pouch 39L, which the 12Z GFS has forming on 9/27. No TC on record that formed east of 55W in the MDR after 9/25 ever hit the CONUS! I was surprised when I discovered that by looking year by year. However, 5 that had a genesis in the 56-62W corridor of the MDR did hit, including Hazel of 1954:

- Hazel of 1954: formed at 59W on 10/5
- #5 of 1897: formed at 62W on 10/9
- #13 of 1887: formed at 60W on 10/9
- #6 of 1879: formed at 56W on 10/9
- #5 of 1873: formed at 62W on 9/26

Good research. Definitely something to keep in mind as we watch this disturbance.

[Florida1118]

A tropical wave moving off of the west coast of Africa is expected to move rapidly westward across the tropical Atlantic Ocean at 20 to 25 mph for the next several days. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual development of this system early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[OntarioEggplant]

This may end up being relevant to pouch 39L, which the 12Z GFS has forming on 9/27. No TC on record that formed east of 55W in the MDR after 9/25 ever hit the CONUS! I was surprised when I discovered that by looking year by year. However, 5 that had a genesis in the 56-62W corridor of the MDR did hit, including Hazel of 1954:

- Hazel of 1954: formed at 59W on 10/5
- #5 of 1897: formed at 62W on 10/9
- #13 of 1887: formed at 60W on 10/9
- #6 of 1879: formed at 56W on 10/9
- #5 of 1873: formed at 62W on 9/26

There's always a time for a first. I remember when Cesar in 1996 became the first tropical cyclone ever to form in the eastern Caribbean. We've had several since.

[SeGaBob]

I think the GFS will be right with the recurve. No reason to doubt it. As someone on here said there's always a "magic trap door" for these things.

[LarryWx]

This may end up being relevant to pouch 39L, which the 12Z GFS has forming on 9/27. No TC on record that formed east of 55W in the MDR after 9/25 ever hit the CONUS! I was surprised when I discovered that by looking year by year. However, 5 that had a genesis in the 56-62W corridor of the MDR did hit, including Hazel of 1954:

- Hazel of 1954: formed at 59W on 10/5
- #5 of 1897: formed at 62W on 10/9
- #13 of 1887: formed at 60W on 10/9
- #6 of 1879: formed at 56W on 10/9
- #5 of 1873: formed at 62W on 9/26

There's always a time for a first. I remember when Cesar in 1996 became the first tropical cyclone ever to form in the eastern Caribbean. We've had several since.

Yes, of course there can always be a first. I don't use stats like these to say certain things are impossible. However, I do use stats like these as guidance to tell me certain things are extremely unlikely....maybe like a 1-2% chance at most. Also, regarding Pouch 39L, the regular resolution of the GFS is suggesting genesis not occur til near 56W anyway, meaning not as low chance for a CONUS hit. If genesis were to be, say, in the 40W-50W interval, I'd be thinking more like the 1-2% chance.

[OntarioEggplant]

I think the GFS will be right with the recurve. No reason to doubt it. As someone on here said there's always a "magic trap door" for these things.

One reason to doubt it is how much the GFS tried to recurve Hermine and keep it weak well before Florida.

[Medtronic15]

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