Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[stormlover2013]

models will keep going back and forth, first models aren't consistent till about 3-4 days out and this year it has been more on that 2-3 day range..I said yesterday I would give it 40-50 percent and as of right now that's what I am still looking at but don't target one spot till alot is at play here, fronts, troughs, high pressure and etc.

[Ivanhater]

Interesting a lot of models turn this west into the gulf strengthening. Makes sense with high pressure dominating the SE

[stormlover2013]

the last 4 days the models have been bouncing around, they will keep doing the same until we have a center and get some data once we have a center.

[gatorcane]

Wow NAVGEM goes bonkers

[toad strangler]

Wow NAVGEM goes bonkers

Verbatim, and yes we know its the Navy,(we know that post is coming lol ) that's a solid NW movement from Tidbits end of 144 hours off the Western tip of Cuba.

[GCANE]

I think the most intense convection that we are observing this morning is actually Kirk's remnants.

Let the memes begin

[youtube]https://youtu.be/I5pocMUIWwU[/youtube]

[Bocadude85]

I am leaving for Cancun on Saturday, whatever comes of this needs to stay away from S.Fla and the Yucatán!

[ronjon]

GFS FV3 eventually bombs out the cyclone at 959 mb just south of Gulfport MS moving north.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100206&fh=270

[ronjon]

NAVGEM gets to 944 mb in the GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018100200&fh=180

[toad strangler]

And just for score keeping, the FV3 GFS ends in the far flung long range with another L over the YP

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1047114448958361600

[GCANE]

06Z GFS

[GCANE]

Anti-cyclone has developed SW of the convection.

[toad strangler]

Looking at forecasted 500mb maps across the model suite I would open both eyes on the N Gulf Coast. The NAVGEM track from 6z seems very plausible. Of course that can change but it's pretty consistent all around. Intensity though is another animal ...

[stormlover2013]

never trust the navy, cmc, or icon this far out maybe 3 days out but not this far out

[NDG]

The low level vortex is just east of Nicaragua while a pronounced mid level vortex is north of Colombia with deep convection, I don't see anything to come out of the mid level vortex with nothing but easterly winds underneath it, this mid level vortex is what last night's Euro run shows developing near Jamaica later this week.

[toad strangler]

never trust the navy, cmc, or icon this far out maybe 3 days out but not this far out

You seem to post this everyday about three time LOL
What I was saying, is the 500mb maps across the the model suite are very similar. Thus it could make that NAVGEM track very plausible.
I am in NO WAY singling out the NAVGEM all by itself.

[LarryWx]

never trust the navy, cmc, or icon this far out maybe 3 days out but not this far out

I’d side with the consensus of the GFS, Euro, and UKMET over the navy and CMC just about at all timeframes if they’re weaker. At least those 3 don’t have a tendency to overstrengthen when nearby shear is very high.

[Aric Dunn]

nice convective blob. unfortunately, that is well east of the low pressure and broad circulation near the coast of Nicaragua. That would have to persist for a long time to change the flow. which it could slowly but most likely it will collapse over the next few hours. only ese flow through that entire mass.

[LarryWx]

nice convective blob. unfortunately, that is well east of the low pressure and broad circulation near the coast of Nicaragua. That would have to persist for a long time to change the flow. which it could slowly.

I was going to say that this convection is pretty far to the east.