Watching GOM for tropical development (Is INVEST 92L)

[Aric Dunn]

18z inline with other models now.. besides the timing and crazy reformations.. heading towards biloxi

[northjaxpro]

18Z GFS keeps the vorticity elongated across the Northeast GOM. It also shows a trough still draped along the U.S. East Coast by end of the week. This trough may be strong enough to pick up whatever becomes of this system. Still differences with the EURO. Geez, why I am not shocked by this . This is 2012 all over again potentially (Debby) We watch and wait with As the Models Turn....

[stormlover2013]

Gfs getting in line with euro slowly

[northjaxpro]

Gfs getting in line with euro slowly

We shall see. Still have plenty of time for model back and forth.There will be changes I would bet on it.

[Kingarabian]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

[artist]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

It is west

[cycloneye]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

It is west

HWRF is running and is not a invest?

[Ivanhater]

Models certainly stronger today. Looks like a lot of rain for the northern gulf coast. I have a flight out of Pensacola Friday morning, so watching closely.

[Kingarabian]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

It is west

It's out of its nest (this nest is meant for the Cosme over the EPAC), so it can't be used or trusted until 92L is designated and has its own HWRF nest.

[johngaltfla]

I'm not sure how much that would help in the long run. If the storm were to affect the Mississippi river valley with torrential rain causing more flooding along the river it would just dump the nutrient filled fresh water right back into the Gulf after the hurricane passed(especially if a scenario like the Euro occurred.). I'd rather not need to rely on a hurricane to help clear the algae bloom.

Didn't help us with Red Tide, so I'm right there with you.

We have a blue-green algae that is caused by fresh water. Red algae is caused by massive upwelling on the ocean floor. Much different phenomena.

d

Actually we had both. Red tide plus from Cape Coral down to Marco Island due to the Lake Okeechobee and Everglades runoff. This year it's no red tide (yet) but blue-green algae due to high rainfall amounts inland and river run off from Central Florida.

Also, FYI, red tide is not a red algae, two different animals.

[SunnyThoughts]

Models certainly stronger today. Looks like a lot of rain for the northern gulf coast. I have a flight out of Pensacola Friday morning, so watching closely.

Watching close as well. Flight out tomorrow and come back on Wednesday evening, hopefully all will be settled by then and we will know what we are dealing with along the gulf coast.

[artist]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

It is west

HWRF is running and is not a invest?

I like this page for those models-


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[artist]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

It is west

It's out of its nest (this nest is meant for the Cosme over the EPAC), so it can't be used or trusted until 92L is designated and has its own HWRF nest.

I’ve followed for years like that and it is usually pretty close.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS:
- out of ~51 members, close to 20 get to sub 1000 either in Gulf or after coming inland
- I counted 8 that get to below 992 either in Gulf or after coming inland; 4 of those 8 hit between central LA and central TX coasts; other 4 hit mainly in MS/AL/W FL panhandle
- Landfalls between Thu 7/11 and Mon 7/14 with 7/12-13 dominating
- Mean heaviest rainfall has also shifted west from the 0Z's Big Bend of Gainesville, FL, to SE portions of GA/SC/NC to the 12Z's more spread out from FL Big Bend to NE TX and then coming inland with an impressive 1.5-2" mean centered on ATL-AHN -GSP-ASH


Meanwhile, I've still not seen even one GEFS or GEPS member get down to 1003 or lower in the Gulf! What a dichotomy!

The dichotomy between the EPS and GEFS/GEPS continues as the Happy Hour GEFS is still another one with zero members (out of ~21) with SLP of 1003 mb or lower!

[cycloneye]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2. ... =Animation

It is west

It's out of its nest (this nest is meant for the Cosme over the EPAC), so it can't be used or trusted until 92L is designated and has its own HWRF nest.

Yeah,forgot that wimpy Cosme nest.

[NDG]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

I am thinking as early as Tuesday afternoon/evening we could see it get declared an invest, the Euro has been very persistent in the h85 vorticity moving offshore by then.

[Aric Dunn]

Well we should be getting an invest tag by Wednesday I'm assuming. Will be a huge help to have HMON and HWRF runs.

I am thinking as early as Tuesday afternoon/evening we could see it get declared an invest, the Euro has been very persistent in the h85 vorticity moving offshore by then.

https://i.imgur.com/feKnBtm.png
https://i.imgur.com/k6Jrvbk.png

yeah most likely tuesday for invest. we have had invest over land before so not a problem there

[vbhoutex]

Most recent from Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control. This is a combination or our local Houston weather and his take on the GOM disturbance if it happens.

Heat:

Ridging in the low to mid levels has finally gained a decent foothold over the region for the first time this summer and this is resulting in gradually rising afternoon high temperatures. As the ground begins to dry from the recent rains in June can expect to add about a degree every couple of days to the highs over the area. Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90’s by the mid to end of the week and when combined with our usual humidity, heat index values of 105-110 will be possible reach afternoon. Could be looking at a heat advisory for some areas by the middle to end of the week if values of 108 become widespread. Little chance for storms, although could see some isolated activity each afternoon along the seabreeze, but will not go much higher than 15-20% given the subsidence aloft over the area.

Gulf of Mexico:

A complex evolution of a weakening frontal boundary and mid level disturbance could result in tropical cyclone formation over the NE Gulf of Mexico this week.

A mid level (850mb) disturbance that formed over KS early in the weekend has moved around the edge of the southern plains high pressure ridge and is currently located over the northern MS/AL area and is moving toward the SSE. This feature is forecast to enter the extreme NE/E Gulf of Mexico late Monday into Tuesday where conditions both aloft and at the ocean surface appear favorable for the 850mb surface circulation to attempt to work its way toward the surface. While this is not the most common formation evolution of a tropical cyclone, it has happened before in the Gulf of Mexico. Such systems tend to take some amount of time to consolidate the surface energy and form a surface circulation.

The following questions remain this afternoon:

· Where does a surface circulation eventually form

· How strong does any circulation become

· Will the system remain close to the NE Gulf coast or move more westward

There are simply not a lot of clear answers to the begging questions above, mainly due to the fact that how this system forms is complex and that the major global models are at complete odds with both formation and track of any potential system. The GFS, UKMET, and CMC all keep the energy elongated and weak and close to the FL coast and eventually pull any weak system NE into FL and GA. The ECWMF brings a much stronger system deeper into the Gulf of Mexico on a more westward track before turning toward the SC LA coast and is by far the strongest of any guidance. Both solutions are certainly viable given the various factors at play which would be intensity of the system, a trough crossing the Great Lakes and NE US, and a ridge of high pressure over the southern plains which builds eastward with time across the southern US. One thing that does appear to be somewhat consistent with all the major models is that upper level conditions will be favorable for developed with an established 200mb high pressure system (anticyclone) anchored over the SE US into the northern Gulf of Mexico for much of this week. Any developing system will sit at the southern flank of this upper level high with weak ENE/E wind shear which tends to be a favorable direction for any shearing effects in the Gulf of Mexico. The ECMWF model is showing this I think better than the GFS, but I am reminded of the ECWMF on its performance in early June when it insisted on development of 91L in the southern Gulf of Mexico that did not occur.

At the moment there does not appear to be any significant threat to TX, but as always with any system expected to develop in the Gulf of Mexico…it is something to watch and residents should check forecasts and the tropical weather outlooks at least daily.

The National Hurricane Center currently indicates a 50% chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 5 days…more likely in the 3-5 day time range.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jul 7 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A trough of low pressure located over the southeastern United States
is forecast to move southward toward the northeastern Gulf of
Mexico, where a broad area of low pressure will likely form in a few
days. Some gradual development is possible thereafter and a tropical
depression could form by the end of the week while the low meanders
near the northern Gulf Coast. Regardless of development, this system
has the potential to produce heavy rainfall along portions of the
central and eastern U.S. Gulf Coast later this week. For more
information about the rainfall threat, please see products issued by
your local weather forecast office and the Weather Prediction
Center. Interests along the northern Gulf Coast and Florida
peninsula should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[USTropics]

Here is an excerpt from Model Diagnostic team at WPC:

Elsewhere, the Pacific NW continues to be well agreed upon for a
general model blend. As for the Southeast, the 12z ECMWF trended a
bit faster rotating around the ridge and further southwest into
the Gulf by 84hrs compared to the 00z run; it remains well south
of the NAM but accompanied by the CMC/UKMET with the GFS still
splitting the difference between the NAM/ECMWF. WPC/NHC
preferences are more toward the southern solutions and away from
the NAM, but overall the spread is small to support a general
model blend with lower weight to the NAM.

---Prior Discussion---
The large scale pattern in the CONUS remains fairly agreed upon
with a broad deep trof across the West Coast with fairly flat
zonal flow through the northern tier. The trof will slowly shift
east later today with continued southwesterly flow expected
favorable upscale growth to convective pattern across the Northern
High Plains Monday into Tuesday, culminating in the trof
potentially becoming closed across N DAK by 00z Wed. The 12z NAM
continues to be over-amplified and while the 12z GFS trended back
a bit deeper, it is more sensible in the strength and in line with
the ensembles as well as the ECMWF/CMC. The 00z UKMET is a bit
more amplified and faster and while could be included in the
blend, think a stronger one would eliminate it or at much reduced
weighting compared to the GFS/ECMWF/CMC.

Elsewhere, the broad closed low entering the Pacific NW by Wed is
in strong agreement as well as the trailing edge of the East Coast
trof that begins to retrograde across the Carolinas into the NE
Gulf by early Wed. The 12z NAM is a bit further north, along the
FL Panhandle compared to the ECMWF/UKMET/CMC but the GFS is also a
bit north as well, but the QPF/general pattern is solid enough for
a general model blend for these areas.

src: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd