Expert forecasts for 2020 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[SFLcane]

Wouldn't be surprised if their August update shows 5 MH.

[MJGarrison]

How much of the update do you thing was just adding in the 3 early storms?


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[cycloneye]

Goes up from 16/8/4 but leaved the majors at 4. Read the whole document on the first page where CSU has the June 4 one

[TheStormExpert]

Goes up from 16/8/4 but leaved the majors at 4. Read the whole document on the first page where CSU has the June 4 one

https://i.imgur.com/mBrDwbV.jpg

CSU is now going with the same exact numbers I put as final in my numbers poll!

Of course ACE is slightly higher at 160.

[WeatherEmperor]

Their number of Hurricanes increased from 8 to 9. I truly hope the impacts to land are small because this has the looks of a very active season


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[cycloneye]

This is what worries me the most and that is 59% chance of a major cane tracking into the Caribbean.

.

[FireRat]

Oh my!
They're approaching my own 19/9/6
This is yet another bold prediction by the pros! The suspense keeps building.

[CyclonicFury]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1268577505025445892

[TheStormExpert]

Their number of Hurricanes increased from 8 to 9. I truly hope the impacts to land are small because this has the looks of a very active season


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One thing that is worth mentioning is the NAO has been going negative more frequently since the beginning of April. Maybe that’ll continue or even become more frequent allowing the setup of a semi-persistent East Coast trough similar to years like 2010, 2011, or 2014.

[TheStormExpert]

Oh my!
They're approaching my own 19/9/6
This is yet another bold prediction by the pros! The suspense keeps building.

That’s their boldest prediction in years! The last time they went that high was in 2013 with their June update that year (18/9/4) and look what happened. I highly doubt a 2013 repeat is in the cards now but we can be wishful!

[TheStormExpert]

The comparisons are eerily too similar!


 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1268567312883384320

[chaser1]

Oh my!
They're approaching my own 19/9/6
This is yet another bold prediction by the pros! The suspense keeps building.

That’s their boldest prediction in years! The last time they went that high was in 2013 with their June update that year (18/9/4) and look what happened. I highly doubt a 2013 repeat is in the cards now but we can be wishful!

Nope, not bold whatsoever. MJGarrison actually stated the facts correctly. I just read through the entirety of the CSU forecast. Most importantly is the table at the very end of their report update summary. They clearly state their April forecast and then their updated June 4 forecast. Immediately next to this is, present/past 2020 activity (including Cristobal). In that column it show's the 3 named storms this far, number of T.S. Storm days, etc. THEN..... in the right-hand most column, is their "corrected" 2020 Forecast. These numbers state their updated June 1 forecast PLUS what has already transpired this year already. The only "core number" that has changed in their updated June 4 forecast is increasing their forecast of 8 hurricanes, to 9.

Of course, the media will run with this "big" increased prediction - yet it really isn't. Wanna know what I think is more impressive? That in our own S2K poll, a whopping 51 out of 96 participants already predicted that this season would have between 18-20 name storms. Someone wake me up when THAT goes viral on Twitter. Just sayin'

[Hurricane Jed]

Oh my!
They're approaching my own 19/9/6
This is yet another bold prediction by the pros! The suspense keeps building.

That’s their boldest prediction in years! The last time they went that high was in 2013 with their June update that year (18/9/4) and look what happened. I highly doubt a 2013 repeat is in the cards now but we can be wishful!

You can’t go one season without defaulting to 2013 can you?

[TheStormExpert]

Oh my!
They're approaching my own 19/9/6
This is yet another bold prediction by the pros! The suspense keeps building.

That’s their boldest prediction in years! The last time they went that high was in 2013 with their June update that year (18/9/4) and look what happened. I highly doubt a 2013 repeat is in the cards now but we can be wishful!

You can’t go one season without defaulting to 2013 can you?

I just mentioned 2013 because that’s the last time they went with such a high prediction! If you’d actually read my whole post correctly you’d see the part where I HIGHLY DOUBT a 2013 repeat is likely.

[TheStormExpert]

Oh my!
They're approaching my own 19/9/6
This is yet another bold prediction by the pros! The suspense keeps building.

That’s their boldest prediction in years! The last time they went that high was in 2013 with their June update that year (18/9/4) and look what happened. I highly doubt a 2013 repeat is in the cards now but we can be wishful!

Nope, not bold whatsoever. MJGarrison actually stated the facts correctly. I just read through the entirety of the CSU forecast. Most importantly is the table at the very end of their report update summary. They clearly state their April forecast and then their updated June 4 forecast. Immediately next to this is, present/past 2020 activity (including Cristobal). In that column it show's the 3 named storms this far, number of T.S. Storm days, etc. THEN..... in the right-hand most column, is their "corrected" 2020 Forecast. These numbers state their updated June 1 forecast PLUS what has already transpired this year already. The only "core number" that has changed in their updated June 4 forecast is increasing their forecast of 8 hurricanes, to 9.

Of course, the media will run with this "big" increased prediction - yet it really isn't. Wanna know what I think is more impressive? That in our own S2K poll, a whopping 51 out of 96 participants already predicted that this season would have between 18-20 name storms. Someone wake me up when THAT goes viral on Twitter. Just sayin'

Alright maybe I should’ve used a different word!

I know their prediction is more likely to verify than not just looking at the SST’s in the Atlantic.

[chaser1]

That’s their boldest prediction in years! The last time they went that high was in 2013 with their June update that year (18/9/4) and look what happened. I highly doubt a 2013 repeat is in the cards now but we can be wishful!

Nope, not bold whatsoever. MJGarrison actually stated the facts correctly. I just read through the entirety of the CSU forecast. Most importantly is the table at the very end of their report update summary. They clearly state their April forecast and then their updated June 4 forecast. Immediately next to this is, present/past 2020 activity (including Cristobal). In that column it show's the 3 named storms this far, number of T.S. Storm days, etc. THEN..... in the right-hand most column, is their "corrected" 2020 Forecast. These numbers state their updated June 1 forecast PLUS what has already transpired this year already. The only "core number" that has changed in their updated June 4 forecast is increasing their forecast of 8 hurricanes, to 9.

Of course, the media will run with this "big" increased prediction - yet it really isn't. Wanna know what I think is more impressive? That in our own S2K poll, a whopping 51 out of 96 participants already predicted that this season would have between 18-20 name storms. Someone wake me up when THAT goes viral on Twitter. Just sayin'

Alright maybe I should’ve used a different word!

I know their prediction is more likely to verify than not just looking at the SST’s in the Atlantic.

Oh, don't get me wrong.... I fully agree with you on the numbers that are being discussed. I'm just saying that I don't give CSU big kudos for basically saying "... hmmm ya know, we better up our numbers from 16 to 19 cuz we've already had 3 named storms". That just seems less like forecasting and more like public relations. Anyway politics aside, they seem to echo the concern that there may be a broad bull-eye on our general neck of the woods. I think there's going to be a lot of T.S. & Hurricane watches and warnings this season.

[FireRat]

yeppers they did reflect the recent storms on the numbers update, and we sure are on track to have a busy season at this rate. We can only wonder if we'll see the 9 hurricanes and the 4 majors come to fruition, a 2013 thing would at least offer a little, tiny piece of hope for a nondestructive season.

But yeah, not likely at all lol, more likely to be like 1995, 2008 or 2011. At least 2011 had few landfallers thanks to the east coast troughs, Irene and Ophelia being the only big ones from that year I can remember. A busier version of 2008 would be a nightmare however, and true while the predictions seem bold, they're actually very down to Earth and many of us here in S2K are picking up on the real chance of a hyperactive season.

This is definitely the highest numbers we've probably seen issued by the professionals in a long, long time. So 'bold' predictions are in style in 2020

[wayne1701]

My concern is the SST continue to warm from 10-20 latitudes. This enormous heat needs an outlet. Disturbance's that traverse these waters shall find energy and impact land. Watch for increased activity near and around the Cape Verde islands. The SST water off Africa continue to rise.

[cycloneye]

The private firm WeatherTiger Junes forecast goes up to 19/9/5 from the April's 16/8/4.

https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... june-2020/

[toad strangler]

The private firm WeatherTiger Junes forecast goes up to 19/9/5 from the April's 16/8/4.

https://weathertiger.com/tropical/atlan ... june-2020/

Two point key take away for me from this write up by weathertiger....


1. One piece of good news: the Kirkland Signature three-pack of tropical storms that have affected the U.S. coast so far this year (Arthur, Bertha, Cristobal) have no enduring predictive value for the year ahead. Hurricane season 2020 is running hot so far (~95th percentile), but prior TC activity has no correlation with the rest of the season until early August. Of the eleven fastest starts since 1950, five seasons ended above normal, two near normal, and four below normal. This early season activity is a shot over the bow, but nothing more.

2. Given the similarities to 1964 in both the Atlantic and the tropical and mid-latitude Pacific, I am concerned this year will not only be very active, but also have a steering current regime during the peak of the season that is risky for the continental U.S., with stronger than average Western Atlantic Ridging. That is, as always, a low confidence forecast at this range, and we’ll have a better idea how those critical steering currents may shape up later this summer.