Robust Tropical Wave SW of Cabo Verde Islands (Is Invest 98L)

[toad strangler]

GEFS-PARA Ensemble Trend over the last 4 runs.

https://i.imgur.com/zcUnyf4.gif

Like I said earlier, looks bad for Florida.

Verbatim, sure. Too far out though. FL is a tiny spec of real estate compared to what's in front of it.

[SFLcane]

12z Uk heading w-wnw...

[Aric Dunn]

if I were a betting man... I would bet that is a genesis tower popping off which would indicate the llc closing off and the first tight meso vort is developing. ... all the models have this developing in 30 hours or less.

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET 500 mb ridging.. no recurve before florida here lol. looks like similar to CMC set up..

[northjaxpro]

No chance to recurve atleast not before FL.

Hard to say that, I thought the same about Dorian and then the models in unison started stalling it out before taking it north.

Only thing is the Bahamas look to take another pounding regardless.

There is always a chance of some sort of weakness that wasn't foreseen to yank it up.

This haa happened quite a bit the last few years. A trough coming in at the last hour to save Florida, especially from Matthew, Dorian and Isaias most recently. But, unfortunately at the expense of the Bahamas

[WeatherEmperor]

UKMET 500 mb ridging.. no recurve before florida here lol. looks like similar to CMC set up..

[url]https://i.ibb.co/9T89sST/Capture.rl]

In your gut.....if you were to extend the UKMET run further in time, would you say it would turn West to affect Florida?

[SFLcane]

UKMET 500 mb ridging.. no recurve before florida here lol. looks like similar to CMC set up..

[url]https://i.ibb.co/9T89sST/Capture.rl]

In your gut.....if you were to extend the UKMET run further in time, would you say it would turn West to affect Florida?

Yes.

[Aric Dunn]

UKMET 500 mb ridging.. no recurve before florida here lol. looks like similar to CMC set up..

[url]https://i.ibb.co/9T89sST/Capture.rl]

In your gut.....if you were to extend the UKMET run further in time, would you say it would turn West to affect Florida?

it would stay wnw into florida and likely into the gulf.

[SFLcane]

Woah! 30-70

Code red

[cycloneye]

Another tropical wave located over the eastern tropical Atlantic
to the south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing
disorganized cloudiness and showers. The wave is forecast to move
westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few
days, and environmental conditions are expected to become more
conducive for the development of a tropical depression during the
middle-to-latter part of this week while the system moves across the
central and western portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[DestinHurricane]

Not sure why they're so hesitant on labeling this one 98L when they labeled 97L with a lower chance of development. Perhaps because 97L is closer to the islands?

[SFLcane]

Coming into the picture. Huge envelope

[aspen]

Oh boy, up to 70% in 5 days. This should be an invest today.

[toad strangler]

Right now @gatorcane is looking (as we all are) for ANY HINT of a trough / weakness to ensure his 2020 FL E Coast no threat forecast holds up.

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro initializing a closed vort exactly where that tower ( in my previous post) is located.

lets see what happens.

[SFLcane]

Right now @gatorcane is looking for ANY HINT of a trough / weakness or a move into Shredderola to ensure his 2020 FL E Coast no threat forecast holds up.

Doupt he will find it models for now are showing pretty substantial ridging all the way to FL.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro 24hrs .. has a TD/TS already

[AxaltaRacing24]

Right now @gatorcane is looking for ANY HINT of a trough / weakness or a move into Shredderola to ensure his 2020 FL E Coast no threat forecast holds up.

Doupt he will find it models for now are showing pretty substantial ridging all the way to FL.

not gonna lie, i hope that he is right. it'd have the potential to be a pretty bad situation if not.

[TheStormExpert]

12z ICON hot off the press...

https://i.imgur.com/ONhPRLW.gif

As much as I was not a fan of the ICON after Dorian last year this is not pretty!

[MississippiWx]

UKMET 500 mb ridging.. no recurve before florida here lol. looks like similar to CMC set up..

https://i.ibb.co/9T89sST/Capture.png

That break in the ridge right over Louisiana though.